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Did I Dream It?


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Poll: Did I Dream It? (130 member(s) have cast votes)

What's your position on the property market?

  1. Bull (8 votes [6.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.15%

  2. Bear (91 votes [70.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 70.00%

  3. Neutral Observer (14 votes [10.77%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.77%

  4. I'm still waiting for the world to end (17 votes [13.08%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.08%

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#1 paulokes

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 07:57 PM

I'm sure when I signed up to this site you had to declare if you were a Bull or a Bear?! Good God, those days are gone :)

Anyway, wonder if there are any proper out-and-out property bulls left out there?

P
A message from the past to Jimmy Wales and Tim Berners-Lee:

...you give your disciples not truth, but only the semblance of truth; they will be hearers of many things and will have learned nothing; they will appear to be omniscient and will generally know nothing; they will be tiresome company, having the show of wisdom without the reality
Plato, The Phaedrus


#2 spiney

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 08:49 PM

Bear!!

I can't see where the money is going to come from to enable HPI here in the midlands.

I predict slow but steady falls.

Spiney.
If you're going to be a bear, be a grizzly!!!

#3 RufflesTheGuineaPig

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 08:58 PM

We all knew it would take a long time.

But when it happens, it will be catastrophic, and possible take out our entire society.
It's time to pay the piper. There is no magician who will magic away the debt. Someone is going to have to pay it. Bend over and prepare to make payment.

In this glorious nation of ours, if you work hard and keep your head down for 25 years then you too can aspire to own one-eighth of a one bedroom flat in Manchester.


My mum and day always tell me how important it is to save to buy a house. They should know, it took them nearly 6 months to save for theirs. As teenagers, they bought a 3 bed semi.

#4 Surrey Girl

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 09:25 PM

We all knew it would take a long time.

But when it happens, it will be catastrophic, and possible take out our entire society.


Naaa.... slow steady fall in real terms without much movement in the headline figure.

May vary on a regional basis, but basically, that is what current policy is designed to deliver, and it seems to be doing a sterling job.

#5 Bruce Banner

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 09:32 PM

30% to 40% nominal falls over the next few years and then, like Japan, prices will bounce along the bottom for another fifteen or twenty years. Buy now at your peril.
.



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lest there be any doubt.

No I believe prices will fall and am astounded that a so called Conservative led government could act in such a stupid way. As you can see from today, there are 2,000 HtB applicants and it has been on MSM none stop all day and they make up about 3.5% of a typical months mortgages.

BTL is a good potential way to bankruptcy and yes sometimes I make points to hopefully make people think.


#6 The Bull Trap

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:38 PM

30% to 40% nominal falls over the next few years and then, like Japan, prices will bounce along the bottom for another fifteen or twenty years. Buy now at your peril.


I bought now. I feel dirty, but its our first house, baby on the way, we'll never have to move, we bought it for 150k when it was originally on for 210k and I've fixed the mortgage for 25 years at 5.2%. Hopefully inflation will do the rest for me and hopefully I won't be bothered by any falls in value.

Edit - I'll also add I've been looking for a house I can negotiate money off for five years, so hopefully I've made the right choice (for me)

Edited by The Bull Trap, 27 December 2012 - 10:40 PM.

Revolution is in my blood

#7 manchester50

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:43 PM

Nominal price falls of 1 or 2% a year for the rest of the decade.


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#8 hotairmail

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:53 PM

I predict widespread death from here until eternity (or until the last whichever is sooner).

"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."


#9 Normski

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:55 PM

Nominal price falls of 1 or 2% a year for the rest of the decade.

This is the only thing that can happen

#10 paulokes

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:39 PM

I predict widespread death from here until eternity (or until the last whichever is sooner).


Second that, we're all doomed I tell you, a slow and uneventful demise taking about another 50 years. So let's hope house prices have come down a little by then.

By the way, ladies and we gents we have a bull in our midst. Do we still call them Trolls?

P
A message from the past to Jimmy Wales and Tim Berners-Lee:

...you give your disciples not truth, but only the semblance of truth; they will be hearers of many things and will have learned nothing; they will appear to be omniscient and will generally know nothing; they will be tiresome company, having the show of wisdom without the reality
Plato, The Phaedrus


#11 TheCountOfNowhere

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:40 PM

Middle of the worst depression ever....government printing money to keep things just about going....interest rates at all time lows....I think we can safely predict the one thing that is not going to happen is a nice sensible orderly gradual decline in prices or sales volumes.

#12 bland unsight

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 12:06 AM

This is the only thing that can happen


You wish.

As Merv said, "House prices are a matter of opinion whereas debt is real." Opinion is driven by sentiment. People who are holding the debts and controlling the assets will hold on if they can whilst interest rates favour them - and that may happen for a while - but until 125% LTV repayment and high-LTV self-cert IO make a comeback they will be holding at a level that new entrants cannot entertain.

Many are only able to hold at that level because of bank forbearance - which cannot continue indefinitely. Many others will see their ability to hold on constrained by the fact that CPI outstrips wage inflation. In the UK people are bred in the bone committed to the idea that house prices will start going up again - but they are still wrong. The debt financing must be matched to the ability of earnings to support the cost of servicing the debt. We have moved past that point. We moved past it some point between 2003 and 2007. Everything since has just be an idiotic combination of a Wylie Coyote moment (of considerable duration) on the part of the borrowing public who neither read, research nor think and the powers that be scrabbling around trying to work out what they just crashed into.

It could crash hard, taking the banks with it and putting the economy in a coma for the foreseeable future. Inflation could get way out of control, leaving the powers that be with a choice between an interest rate spike that would put the economy in a coma for the foreseeable future or Zimbabwe-fun.

IMO Gordon Brown was onto something when he talked about an end to boom and bust. He was going to ride the wave of the credit boom until it broke out into something new - something wonderful or something terrible. As Rolf Harris used to say, "Can you tell what it is yet?"

50%+ IO in the South East, and no more IO...

Pretty sure we all know what happens next, sooner or later.
Wendell: It's a mess, ain't it, sheriff?
Ed Tom Bell: If it ain't, it'll do till the mess gets here.

#13 Goat

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 12:20 AM

50%+ IO in the South East, and no more IO...

Pretty sure we all know what happens next, sooner or later.


Indeed, I suspect that almost the entire generation of 30/40 somethings have wiped themselves out by buying between 2001 and 2007, they just don't know it yet.

It'll be interesting when the older generation start looking to downsize, who will be around to buy their houses?
Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware - anon 1523AD

Told you - Young Goat December 2007AD

We are all waking up to the reality that our houses aren't worth what we thought they were. - David Willetts MP 15 March 2011.

Join today: British Goat Society

#14 dances with sheeple

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 12:26 AM

Indeed, I suspect that almost the entire generation of 30/40 somethings have wiped themselves out by buying between 2001 and 2007, they just don't know it yet.

It'll be interesting when the older generation start looking to downsize, who will be around to buy their houses?



Plenty, at the right price, they won`t be getting the silly money they expected though.

#15 scepticus

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 12:27 AM

You fixed at 5.2%? That is foolishness of the very worst kind. You are handing your family wealth to bankers. Please do yourself a favour and renegotiate the deal.




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