interestrateripoff, on 18 July 2012 - 07:30 AM, said:
We should listen to Roubini, he is very good. IIRC he didn't just predicted the crisis, but was the
leading, loudest "warner", not only within academia but also on the press, and going round media studios, tirelessly warning about the mounting debt crisis. He became increasingly concerned and loud about it, and in return he got this derogatory nickname of "Dr Doom"...
I think / hope that now, in retrospect, people can see and understand why he was getting louder and louder: because people were not listening to him, and he knew what was coming. BTW, not too dissimilar to our sentiments here in the HPC Forum.
Anyway, back to his new prediction, those 5 factors are:
- a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe;
- tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession;
- a hard landing for China's economy;
- further slowing in emerging markets;
- a military confrontation with Iran.
Re.timing: " 'Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm, Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters. "
And this is important:
(the Fed) may be pushed toward unconventional policy options as the stimulative effect of successive waves of quantitative easing - effectively printing money to buy government bonds - diminishes over time.
Unconventional policy could include "targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric," said Roubini. "Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities."
So, listing these possible "unconventional" policies:
The BoE could do some of these too.
- targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent,
- doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing,
- targeting nominal GDP,
- price-level targeting
- Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.
This post has been edited by Tired of Waiting: 18 July 2012 - 11:42 AM
High property prices increase: living costs; production costs; and government costs - hence all prices , and taxes!
This also reduces Britain's international competitiveness, impoverishing all of us, including property owners
And NIMBYism is evil.