Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Roubini Sticks To 2013 'perfect Storm' Prediction


  • Please log in to reply
18 replies to this topic

#1 interestrateripoff

interestrateripoff

    Carry on banking.....

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 47,028 posts
  • Location:Ponzi Land

Posted 18 July 2012 - 07:30 AM

http://www.smh.com.a...0718-22939.html

Economist Nouriel Roubini is standing by his prediction for a global "perfect storm" next year as economies the world over slow down or shudder to a complete halt, geopolitical risk grows and the eurozone's debt crisis accelerates.

Roubini, the New York University professor dubbed "Dr Doom" for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, highlighted five factors that could derail the global economy.

Those factors are a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe; tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession; a hard landing for China's economy; further slowing in emerging markets; and a military confrontation with Iran.

"Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm," Roubini said.


If it's too big to kick they'll bring in a bulldozer to move it along..

Proof that Brown had repeated IMF / OECD / BIS warnings over house prices and did nothing!!!
Looting: The Economic Underworld Of Bankruptcy For Profit
The exponential growth of debt and the unsustainability of debt
The logic of HPI @ 10% YoY means your £100k house would be worth £1.38bn in 100 years
Paying down my mortgage with money found on the street

It's time to sue the Bank of England / Federal Reserve for GROSS NEGLIGENCE
If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution or you default

 

"The trouble with the world was that prices were so low that only the rich people could buy and the aim of the Conference was to raise them to a point where it would again be possible for poor people to buy something."

"Northern unemployment is an acceptable price to pay for curbing southern inflation" Eddie George former Governor of the Bank of England

New digest on the credit crisis and economy Part2 Part 3

smaller.jpg


#2 Tired of Waiting

Tired of Waiting

    Too much credit + planning blockage = house price bubble

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,129 posts

Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:06 AM

http://www.smh.com.a...0718-22939.html

If it's too big to kick they'll bring in a bulldozer to move it along..


We should listen to Roubini, he is very good. IIRC he didn't just predicted the crisis, but was the leading, loudest "warner", not only within academia but also on the press, and going round media studios, tirelessly warning about the mounting debt crisis. He became increasingly concerned and loud about it, and in return he got this derogatory nickname of "Dr Doom"... :rolleyes:

I think / hope that now, in retrospect, people can see and understand why he was getting louder and louder: because people were not listening to him, and he knew what was coming. BTW, not too dissimilar to our sentiments here in the HPC Forum.

Anyway, back to his new prediction, those 5 factors are:

  • a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe;
  • tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession;
  • a hard landing for China's economy;
  • further slowing in emerging markets;
  • a military confrontation with Iran.
Re.timing: " 'Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm, Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters. "


And this is important:

(the Fed) may be pushed toward unconventional policy options as the stimulative effect of successive waves of quantitative easing - effectively printing money to buy government bonds - diminishes over time.

Unconventional policy could include "targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric," said Roubini. "Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities."


So, listing these possible "unconventional" policies:

  • targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent,
  • doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing,
  • targeting nominal GDP,
  • price-level targeting
  • Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.

The BoE could do some of these too.

Edited by Tired of Waiting, 18 July 2012 - 11:42 AM.

.

High property prices increase: living costs; production costs; and government costs - hence all prices , and taxes!


This also reduces Britain's international competitiveness, impoverishing all of us, including property owners




And NIMBYism is evil.


.

#3 eric pebble

eric pebble

    I live on HPC!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,793 posts

Posted 18 July 2012 - 10:55 AM

We should listen to Roubini, he is very good. ..//..

Agree 100%.
What the media today are still not telling us in full - for some reason the lid is being kept on the whole story:
HERE IN THE UK: THE UK SUB-PRIME CATASTROPHE - IT IS NOT ONLY IN AMERICA!! THE UK LIAR LOAN INDUSTRY - Source of FICTITIOUS "MONEY", and the principle driver of the House "Price" Pyramid/Ponzi Scam & Bubble, the "Credit Crunch" - and an unacknowledged major part of and cause of the ensuing Worldwide Financial Crash.
---------------------
The following was reported in a superb documentary in late 2003 - This is now over 10 years ago!! Since then shamefully little has been done here in the UK by journalists/broadcasters to dig down deep on this story - a vast elephant in the room: Why? If you're a serious journalist - here's your story - start investigating - it is the biggest financial scandal of all time:

THE ARTICLES BELOW ARE FROM AS FAR BACK AS 2003!!

Mortgage customers 'urged to lie' - All this was way back in 2003 by the way!!
Housebuyers are being encouraged to break the law in order to obtain huge mortgages, the BBC has discovered. Brokers, and even banking staff, have been telling buyers to lie about their incomes to get bigger and bigger loans. And these underhand tactics could also be the reason why house prices have gone on rising for so long.
CLICK HERE - http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/3222053.stm

"Could you believe that a bank would invite customers to defraud it? It may sound incredible, but that is what some of Britain's biggest mortgage lenders have in effect been doing."
CLICK HERE - http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/3478635.stm

The BBC Money Programme uncovers massive mortgage fraud [2003!]: BBC TWO's The Money Programme has revealed a huge mortgage fraud with brokers from some of Britain's biggest estate agents and financial advice groups advising customers to break the law and lie about their incomes to get massively bigger mortgages. And it shows how the illicit cash raised by this method has been pouring into the housing market, boosting prices and leaving many people risking financial ruin.
CLICK HERE http://www.bbc.co.uk..._mortgage.shtml

AND READ THIS: - http://www.housepric...howtopic=152508
-----------------------------
WATCH THE VIDEO OF THE 2003/4 DOCUMENTARY HERE: -
Click on parts 2 & 3 as you go along watching this video.
------------------------------
AND WATCH THE LATEST VIDEO OF LIAR LOANS STILL IN ACTION HERE in 2008 - http://news.sky.com/.../20080641317257

#4 zugzwang

zugzwang

    HPC Guru

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,703 posts

Posted 18 July 2012 - 11:09 AM

One of the handful who saw it coming and said so. Taleb and Mandelbrot, Roubini, Steve Keen.

Amazing thing is, everybody else is still in denial, even now. They still think their neo-classical equilibrium-restoring model is going to save the world!

It's not a recovery, it's a relapse.

 

The trouble with capitalism is that eventually bankers end up with everyone else's money.

 

It's the debt interest, stupid.


#5 Bloo Loo

Bloo Loo

    Ripened on the Diversity Vine

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 52,552 posts
  • Location:Essex-the land of Equality
  • About Me:Im Bloo yabba dee yabba die.

Posted 18 July 2012 - 11:12 AM

not a cure in site....all predicted by Austrian Theory...the human reaction of Governments.....no pain, just gain.
WARNING

Your
country is at risk
if you
do not keep up repayments
on a gilt or other loan secured on it





#6 wherebee

wherebee

    HPC Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,908 posts
  • Location:Essex, Ireland, Singapore, HK, and Australia
  • About Me:So I bought a house in Australia in June 2014. Expect a collapse in the western world within 12 months.

Posted 18 July 2012 - 11:29 AM

But as ever is -

OKay, so what is the average man or woman to do, and has the speaker got the courage of their convictions and rebuilt their life to reflect their views. You know the thing, a greenie crying wolf about sea level rises who buys a beachfront property in australia....Celeb greenie likes the water

There is always death and taxes; however, death doesn't get worse every year.....

How the flipping 'eck did we get to 2014 without flying cars and laser guns?


#7 Guest_unfunded_liability_*

Guest_unfunded_liability_*
  • Guests

Posted 18 July 2012 - 11:31 AM

We should listen to Roubini, he is very good...


He's on record as supporting QE, has consistently called gold a bad investment.

The European Central Bank’s reluctance to consider further monetary easing exacerbates the problems the euro zone is currently facing, and Germany’s criticism of the Federal Reserve second round of bond buying is “misplaced,” economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Thursday.

“In a situation where there is massive fiscal consolidation … the ECB should be providing more liquidity to the financial system and do more bond buying," Roubini said in an interview, adding the ECB did not do enough to limit the widening of bond-yield spreads.

“To me QE2 was a necessary evil because with growth so below potential and with inflation following a risk of deflation, if we had not done QE2, the risk of a double-dip recession and of deflation would become more significant.“

But the real economic effects of QE2 will be modest in Roubini’s view, as the market has already priced in its effect to a large extent.

“A lot of that critique of QE2 is somehow misplaced … If anything, you could criticize the ECB for not doing QE2,” he said.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/40129668/

#8 Tired of Waiting

Tired of Waiting

    Too much credit + planning blockage = house price bubble

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,129 posts

Posted 18 July 2012 - 11:37 AM

He's on record as supporting QE, has consistently called gold a bad investment.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/40129668/


Some QE, as a "necessary evil", to cushion the correction a bit, is understandable. The problem is when they try to use it to avoid a correction altogether, worse still when (like Mervyn), some still say that there was no boom.
.

High property prices increase: living costs; production costs; and government costs - hence all prices , and taxes!


This also reduces Britain's international competitiveness, impoverishing all of us, including property owners




And NIMBYism is evil.


.

#9 Voice of Reason

Voice of Reason

    HPC Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,906 posts

Posted 18 July 2012 - 11:44 AM

  • targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent,
  • doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing,
  • targeting nominal GDP,
  • price-level targeting
  • Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.

The BoE could do some of these too.


Print money to buy 10 year treasuries
Print money to lend to people directly
Print money to give companies business to grow GDP
Print money to buy things to maintain prices
Print money to buy equities

All their potential options are really just one option, printy printy, and print they certainly will.

At this point money becomes worthless, then we will truly have hyper-inflation.

Edit: clarity

Edited by Voice of Reason, 18 July 2012 - 11:51 AM.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#10 Bloo Loo

Bloo Loo

    Ripened on the Diversity Vine

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 52,552 posts
  • Location:Essex-the land of Equality
  • About Me:Im Bloo yabba dee yabba die.

Posted 18 July 2012 - 01:36 PM

Print money to buy 10 year treasuries
Print money to lend to people directly
Print money to give companies business to grow GDP
Print money to buy things to maintain prices
Print money to buy equities

All their potential options are really just one option, printy printy, and print they certainly will.

At this point money becomes worthless, then we will truly have hyper-inflation.

Edit: clarity


and no banks...

Way hay!
WARNING

Your
country is at risk
if you
do not keep up repayments
on a gilt or other loan secured on it





#11 billybong

billybong

    I live on HPC!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,804 posts

Posted 18 July 2012 - 02:30 PM

There's still the best part of 6 months to get through apocalypse 2012 and he's perfect storming for 2013.

Give the Mayans predictions a chance for goodness sake.

Edited by billybong, 18 July 2012 - 11:06 PM.


#12 erranta

erranta

    Knows he doesn't know

  • New Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,716 posts
  • Location:Norwich
  • About Me:Too old for another mortgage

    - fighting slavery and serfdom by despotic 'false' leaders of mock-democracy, their mega-corps and corporatism for the next ignorant generation

Posted 18 July 2012 - 04:56 PM

We should listen to Roubini, he is very good. IIRC he didn't just predicted the crisis, but was the leading, loudest "warner", not only within academia but also on the press, and going round media studios, tirelessly warning about the mounting debt crisis. He became increasingly concerned and loud about it, and in return he got this derogatory nickname of "Dr Doom"... :rolleyes:

I think / hope that now, in retrospect, people can see and understand why he was getting louder and louder: because people were not listening to him, and he knew what was coming. BTW, not too dissimilar to our sentiments here in the HPC Forum.

Anyway, back to his new prediction, those 5 factors are:

  • a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe;
  • tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession;
  • a hard landing for China's economy;
  • further slowing in emerging markets;
  • a military confrontation with Iran.
Re.timing: " 'Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm, Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters. "


And this is important:



So, listing these possible "unconventional" policies:

  • targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent,
  • doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing,
  • targeting nominal GDP,
  • price-level targeting
  • Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.

The BoE could do some of these too.


It's all utter crap
- cos on both sides of the pond big business has been laying off thousands of staff whilst continually sticking prices for their goods up.

They are ALL sitting on TRILLIONS of Dollars/Pounds/Euros and deliberately not taking on new staff.

Therefore this whole situation is being 'manufactured' or con-cocted by the ELITES - whether In Universities, finance or other Big Business!

"The rich man's wealth is his strong city, and as an high wall in his own conceit." Proverbs Ch18 v.11

Whistle Blow!
You know 'IT' makes sense!

Exploitation & corrupt Government / Elite Rule? They have nowhere to hide if we all EXPOSE their corruption!


"Most propaganda is NOT designed to fool the critical thinker but only to give MORAL COWARDS an excuse not to think at all!"


#13 The Masked Tulip

The Masked Tulip

    I live on HPC!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,894 posts
  • Location:Swansea, West Wales

Posted 18 July 2012 - 04:58 PM

America Heading Towards a Collapse Worse Than 2008 AND Europe! Says Peter Schiff

http://finance.yahoo...-155504860.html
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.

#14 Tired of Waiting

Tired of Waiting

    Too much credit + planning blockage = house price bubble

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,129 posts

Posted 18 July 2012 - 06:47 PM

America Heading Towards a Collapse Worse Than 2008 AND Europe! Says Peter Schiff

http://finance.yahoo...-155504860.html


Interesting, Roubini and Peter Schiff just a few days apart. Just a coincidence? Or some new data? American elections?
.

High property prices increase: living costs; production costs; and government costs - hence all prices , and taxes!


This also reduces Britain's international competitiveness, impoverishing all of us, including property owners




And NIMBYism is evil.


.

#15 The Masked Tulip

The Masked Tulip

    I live on HPC!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 38,894 posts
  • Location:Swansea, West Wales

Posted 18 July 2012 - 07:40 PM

Interesting, Roubini and Peter Schiff just a few days apart. Just a coincidence? Or some new data? American elections?



Schiff has a new book out :rolleyes:
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users