Halifax

[koala_bear]

Latest Ian Cowie blog in the telegraph

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100017700/house-prices-fell-by-more-than-3000-in-april-more-than-its-owner-earned-that-month/

He focuses on the April Halifax fall rather than the noise in May and the best bit a link to the HPC website.

Those hoping for a house price crash will disagree with him. But the Manhattan-on-Thames effect, first noted in this space in 2010, continues to drive house prices higher in London and the south east, despite the downward trend elsewhere in the country. Which will prove the leading or the lagging indicator?

[Giordano Bruno]

I'm looking forward to this summers collapse

Is anyone here actually actively/seriously looking to buy a house ?

Asking prices at all time highs has just deflated me and would rather chew off my own arm that go and view anything now.

Me too and I'm very attached to my arm.

If prices don't get real then Phuket, I will just continue to rent. In a lot of European countries, such as Germany, that is the norm and people are happy with it. So the sellers can go fly a kite, which is what they are doing most of the time.

Edited June 8, 2012 by Giordano Bruno

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

It is not only London. I think prices are near peak from Cornwall to Kent, and from Bristol to ... I don't know...

I think prices didn't fall much in the whole southern half of England!

Land Registry Index 1995-2012 by Region Vs CPI

[Harry Monk]

I wonder if this will make a difference.....

Millions of homeowners and small businesses could face brutal hikes in their mortgages and loan repayments as three of the biggest high street banks brace themselves for a humiliating downgrade by credit ratings agency Moody’s.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2156097/Homeowners-faced-hikes-mortgage-repayments-UK-banks-brace-credit-downgrade.html#ixzz1xBj7QUVq

[manchester50]

Land Registry Index 1995-2012 by Region Vs CPI

That's a good graph. The North East trajectory is where the lot should be. Having said that this does of course mask over the variances within regions, e.g. there are pockets of the NW which are at, or even above, peak. Price corrections seem to hit the cheaper areas first, then mainstream and finally the 'pockets of specialness'. This seems true on a region level (as per the graph) and within-region.

[Tired of Waiting]

Land Registry Index 1995-2012 by Region Vs CPI

Great chart, thanks.

Yep, that is how it feels down here.

According to that chart the Southeast and Southwest both fell from a peak of around 320, to around 285 now? A fall of some 10% only (285 / 320 = 0.89).

It's way too little. Prices were absolutely bonkers at the peak.

[NEO72]

From the Guardian, 7th June 2012:

House prices in the UK rose by 0.5% in May 2012 to an average of £160,941, according to the latest Halifax house price index, but remain down 0.1% on an annual basis.

The rise follows a 2.4% drop in April, but economists said that despite the volatility house prices remained broadly unchanged since the start of 2011.The three-monthly figures, which are seen as a more reliable indicator of the way the market is going, showed a 0.8% rise in prices – the second successive quarter of increases and the largest rise since August 2011.

However, Halifax's housing economist, Martin Ellis, said: "Whilst there has been a modest improvement in the trend for house prices recently, the current average UK price is very similar to the levels both a year ago and at the beginning of this year.

"We expect this situation to continue with prices likely to still be around today's levels at the end of 2012, as the ongoing tough economic environment constrains housing demand."

Link

From the Guardian, 8th Jan 2008:

House prices rose by 1.3% in December, following three months of falls, the UK's biggest lender said today.

Halifax said the mixed pattern of rises and falls of the past few months was consistent with a subdued market and predicted that prices would remain flat in 2008.

Link

Just food for thought..

[Tired of Waiting]

Land Registry Index 1995-2012 by Region Vs CPI

Could you post this chart's source please?

[awaytogo]

Wether up or down, the volumes are low enough to mean crock for the Halifax or Nationwide data, in my local paper there is an awful lot of "New Price" - and you can guess which way. "Nothing" is selling, the sooner....................

I agree seeing prices dropping all the time, even Halifax predicting flat lining on prices by end of year, its not good news for sellers if Halifax predicting static prices.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

Could you post this chart's source please?

It's in the pinned favourite charts thread (plus raw data, links). I created it during my lunch break in excel. Any errors, please point them out. It is a bit rough and ready but gives the view I wanted.

[Tired of Waiting]

It's in the pinned favourite charts thread (plus raw data, links). I created it during my lunch break in excel. Any errors, please point them out. It is a bit rough and ready but gives the view I wanted.

Thanks.

It's very good.

And I don't remember seeing an equivalent before.

.

Edited June 9, 2012 by Tired of Waiting

[manchester50]

JUNE: +1% mm / -0.5% 3myy

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/press_releases/2012_press_release_brands/halifax/0507_HPI.asp

0.5% May, rising to 1% June.

FFS

[moonriver]

0.5% May, rising to 1% June.

FFS

[/quotE]

Oh dear, expect major ramping from the MSM now.

Blooomberg ticker saying "house prices rise for a second month in June on rates, Halifax says".

And I thought they had started to raise rates on mortgages, obviously not high enough, then.

[GordonBrownSpentMyFuture]

0.5% May, rising to 1% June.

FFS

Average price now £162,417 ; £252 less than in September 2004 (£162,669)... 8 years ago.

Source

Obviously it should be more but who could have predicted QE on the scale we're witnessing. Just goes to show how bad things are. It'd be a brave man who bought his first home in such an economic climate.

[Bruce Banner]

This is good news, less pressure on BoE for more QE.

In the real world, house prices are going nowhere but down, despite what the heavily manipulated indices would have us believe.

[Guest_James Toney_*]

This is good news, less pressure on BoE for more QE.

In the real world, house prices are going nowhere but down, despite what the heavily manipulated indices would have us believe.

think they will still do more QE today though

[@contradevian]

This is good news, less pressure on BoE for more QE.

In the real world, house prices are going nowhere but down, despite what the heavily manipulated indices would have us believe.

+1

Very hard to justify more money printing with house prices booming, especially in London and South East.

[Guest_James Toney_*]

+1

Very hard to justify more money printing with house prices booming, especially in London and South East.

very true SH, going to be interesting today on what they decide, i am still going for another 50bn w4nk3r$

[zugzwang]

+1

Very hard to justify more money printing with house prices booming, especially in London and South East.

The entire basis for economic recovery in this country is predicated on the assumption of private households expanding their debt carrying capacity to compensate for the planned reduction in public spending. An additional ~£300bn by 2015 has been mooted (I believe). While there is some evidence lately of an uptick in distress spending on credit cards and overdrafts, as ever the bulk of the lifting will have to be accomplished through mortgage lending. So booming house prices in the South East + QE^n is entirely consistent with the BoE/Treasury master-plan. Only a spike in commodity prices will deter further bouts of fictitious capital creation.

It's a housing bubble or nothing, folks.

Edited July 5, 2012 by zugzwang

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Is this now the official halfiax june thread ?

House price still lower than a year ago.

Wihtout reading anything I'm guessing crazy unsustainable london bubble keeping the index up.

No one anywhere else able or willing to buy.

London bubble just got another 50 billion.

The rest of us a ****ed.

[foa4]

We'll probably have another 18 months of +/- <> 1% and then prices will start to rise steadily again.

Bottom line, two few houses and to many people in country. Not helped by the non building of new houses since 2007.

That's the reality whether you like it or not and more people will be renting than buying for the mid-long term.

[Goat]

Bottom line, two few houses and to many people in country.

The word you are looking for is too.

The rest of your post makes even less sense.

[The Knimbies who say No]

We'll probably have another 18 months of +/- <> 1% and then prices will start to rise steadily again.

Bottom line, two few houses and to many people in country. Not helped by the non building of new houses since 2007.

That's the reality whether you like it or not and more people will be renting than buying for the mid-long term.

Where will the money to fund this lending will come from?

I know the Government is about to introduce a 'funding for lending' scheme, the details of which are not known yet, but where is the demand for more debt going to come from?

[winkie]

Where will the money to fund this lending will come from?

I know the Government is about to introduce a 'funding for lending' scheme, the details of which are not known yet, but where is the demand for more debt going to come from?

Not from me.

[Blod]

Where will the money to fund this lending will come from?

I know the Government is about to introduce a 'funding for lending' scheme, the details of which are not known yet, but where is the demand for more debt going to come from?

Well the BoE could let inflation back up to 5% odd and then keep printing. However wage inflation has been lagging well behind inflation since 2006/7 so that won't help.

Most honest people in the UK know deep down that the high cost of housing is unsustainable long-term. They see their siblings and offspring struggling to keep a roof over their heads and know that something will eventually give. They might not be able to admit it yet but that point is approaching, as sure as day follows night. Once that critical point is crossed then there will be a crash.