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France Faces 40Pc House Price Slump


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#31 aSecureTenant

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 06:28 PM

:)
No-one lynched in Iceland, but prosecutions are in progress.
Plus every move since has been made with the people in mind, rather than the bankers. The exact opposite of the UK and every other nation that has found itself in this situation.
It may soon be the closest thing to a real democracy on the planet, and it's unlikely anyone will forget for a few generations so it'll be a while before bankers can weasel their way back in there.
If half the UK population had been stoning Parliament instead of watching X-factor when they bailed out the banks, it would have been a lot messier since, but the future would be brighter.


Or bank headquarters. Though I think the real trouble is yet to come. Not so much a case of "we are all in this together" as "THEY are all in it together."

I have to switch off QT and similar now as I find myself increasingly with the likes of Toynbee and the UK Uncut brigade. They are making virtually everyone else pay for this except those that caused it, and over leveraged "home owners" of course.

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“To think output and income can be raised by increasing the quantity of money, is like trying to get fat by buying a larger belt” ~ John Maynard Keynes 

 


#32 crash2006

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 01:09 AM

:)
No-one lynched in Iceland, but prosecutions are in progress.
Plus every move since has been made with the people in mind, rather than the bankers. The exact opposite of the UK and every other nation that has found itself in this situation.
It may soon be the closest thing to a real democracy on the planet, and it's unlikely anyone will forget for a few generations so it'll be a while before bankers can weasel their way back in there.
If half the UK population had been stoning Parliament instead of watching X-factor when they bailed out the banks, it would have been a lot messier since, but the future would be brighter.


Iceland went the other way because they knew that everyone else was not going to fall, best move they could make.
Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.
Privatize the profits socialize the losses.
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what i think the coming year will bring
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i'm an economic prop3rty expert

We did'nt see this coming

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#33 Potte

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 05:36 PM

A few clouds on the GVA horizon though. In April 2014 frontaliers will have to join the French CMU scheme which will mean 8% extra in social security contributions. Currently frontaliers take out a private health insurance which is much less than joining either the French or Swiss government schemes.

The Swiss economy seems to be slowing down, I guess frontaliers will be in the front line for lay-offs, already quite a lot of announcements from banks and IT companies.

There is a big anti-frontalier head of steam building up in GVA. The head of the CHU has said no more frontaliers to be appointed to senior posts in the hospital.

CH depends to some extent on the EU economy which does not seem to have a great short term outlook.

The ONGs are having budgets slashed. The UN is moving a lot of staff out to places like Hungary and Kenya.

The banks are relocating some operations to places like Singapore as CH's position as a tax heaven is threatened.

I don't see Geneva prices crashing, too little building and far too much demand but things could be different on the French side esp if those frontaliers have CH mortages to service but are claiming FR dole checks.

You may get more stability in places that have good core industries, say Lyon with its pharma industry and where they can pick off CH IT contracts with cheap French labour.


Just been to look at some land on the French side and mentioned the CMU - cue some sheepish looks and a few "well nobody really knows and with Geneva being so close it wont effect prices". Made up my mind to sit tight renting for a while yet.

#34 Bruce Banner

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 05:44 PM

Just been to look at some land on the French side and mentioned the CMU - cue some sheepish looks and a few "well nobody really knows and with Geneva being so close it wont effect prices". Made up my mind to sit tight renting for a while yet.


Wherever we go in Europe (mostly France, Spain and UK) it's the same.

"Yes prices are dropping..... but not in this area because.....".

Sit tight and rent, good things come to those who wait ;).
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No I believe prices will fall and am astounded that a so called Conservative led government could act in such a stupid way. As you can see from today, there are 2,000 HtB applicants and it has been on MSM none stop all day and they make up about 3.5% of a typical months mortgages.

BTL is a good potential way to bankruptcy and yes sometimes I make points to hopefully make people think.


#35 davidg

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 06:09 PM

My work colleagues (Swiss) are still buying property on the French side and telling me "prices never go down" and "Geneva is different, innit". Still I have colleagues who pegged their salaries at 1.35 so I don't ask them for investment advice.

#36 Potte

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 06:43 AM

My work colleagues (Swiss) are still buying property on the French side and telling me "prices never go down" and "Geneva is different, innit". Still I have colleagues who pegged their salaries at 1.35 so I don't ask them for investment advice.


I can't see anything but a big readjustment for Geneva:- bank secrecy/taxation rules changing making the location less attractive, commodities trading centres moving eastwards, some multinationals slimming down or pulling out, IO's facing tough budgets (in their perception of course!), crime rising (although still low). Add into that mix that Paris is a long way from the frontalier areas and it will be a double whammy there.

#37 PopGun

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 08:16 AM

How many people with 200 grand mortgages now would have got them 10 years ago in the UK?


Something to always bear in mind in any demand/build over the countryside debate.
"the remarkable result is that under Mrs Thatcher from 1979-90, just as under Tony Blair from 1997-2007, the real value of Housing Equity Withdrawal is larger than the real value of GDP growth"

#38 hotairmail

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 08:40 AM

The first country beyond economic collapse?

What does she think of Greece? I'd prefer the sun to volcanoes. Once the Euro exit aftermath has settled down and before they start booming.


A massive volcano wiped out the first Greek civilsation, the Minoans. Wasn't that long ago in geological terms.


EDIT: Ahh this is the offending bugger...Thira - that is one bloody big crater in the middle. Then there is the famous Santorini with its black beaches too. Seems it is jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire for me.


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#39 swissy_fit

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 10:31 AM

I can't see anything but a big readjustment for Geneva:- bank secrecy/taxation rules changing making the location less attractive, commodities trading centres moving eastwards, some multinationals slimming down or pulling out, IO's facing tough budgets (in their perception of course!), crime rising (although still low). Add into that mix that Paris is a long way from the frontalier areas and it will be a double whammy there.


Geneva is pricing itself out. It all looks OK for the moment, but in the end manufacturing will move. It's started - see Merck Serono.
Geneva wil become a city of banks and international organisations, the state employees and Portuguese cleaners plus some illegals, no industry will be left.

We're building a huge plant in Hungary, where factory operators will be paid about 300 Euros a month, IT employees about 1000 Euros. Here the figures are close to 30 times that for the factory operator and 10 - 20 times that for IT depending on the situation - how long do you think that situation will last?
If you want to know what the next political move will be, ask yourself what will suit the banks, and behold, the answer will come to you.

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The logical financial outcome is deflation. The logical political outcome is inflation. (Thanks to Injin 21st Sept 2008)

#40 Potte

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 01:56 PM

Geneva is pricing itself out. It all looks OK for the moment, but in the end manufacturing will move. It's started - see Merck Serono.
Geneva wil become a city of banks and international organisations, the state employees and Portuguese cleaners plus some illegals, no industry will be left.

We're building a huge plant in Hungary, where factory operators will be paid about 300 Euros a month, IT employees about 1000 Euros. Here the figures are close to 30 times that for the factory operator and 10 - 20 times that for IT depending on the situation - how long do you think that situation will last?


The International Organisations have already announced some role reductions in Geneva -WHO 300 and the ILO were trying but have been blocked by the Unions/works councils at the moment. It will be interesting once the budget contribution rules are renegotiated - currently the UK pays more than twice as much as China!! Its fair to say that the BRICS will not likely agree to increase their contributions to support hundreds, if not thousands of roles, in one of the most expensive locations in the world that could easily be relocated.

The current spate of tax agreements and banking confidentiality changes will also probably begin to impact on Geneva.

#41 Deckard

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 02:49 PM

Geneva wil become a city of banks and international organisations, the state employees and Portuguese cleaners plus some illegals, no industry will be left.


Maybe they are aiming to host the 2016 olympics :D
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#42 redwine

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 03:52 PM

Just been to look at some land on the French side and mentioned the CMU - cue some sheepish looks and a few "well nobody really knows .


Switzerland signed a treaty with the EU on the 21/6/99 that came into effect on the 1/5/2002.
The treaty for the "free movement of persons" one of the articles in the treaty states that the frontaliers have a date limit the 31/5/2014.
They have a choice of either joining the Swiss healthcare system the AML or the French CMU.
The aim of this is to stop a form of "healthcare social dumping".
Private healthcare is cheaper for a frontalier but only if they are not suffering from a long term illness.
Then they pay alot more!
Today even though they are french but work in Switzerland they pay nothing into the CMU but when things go wrong they just change to the french public system.
The Swiss public system is more expensive than the french having said that the Swiss who live in France do the same thing they also pay nothing into there public health system.
Well everybody really knows and have known about this since 2002.
Nothing new is it.

#43 jammo

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 11:03 PM

You can pick up some really nice cosy freehold places with a bit of land and a wood burning stove in many European countries for that, the equivalent in council tax is a fraction of what we pay in the UK, under 200 a year for all services in some places....


That's incredible! 200 per year. How often do they get the rubbish collected? Are we comparing like for like services here?
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#44 OnlyMe

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 11:12 PM

That's incredible! 200 per year. How often do they get the rubbish collected? Are we comparing like for like services here?


Villages have large communal wheelie bins, you just drive or walk down withthe bags and dump them in, weekly collections I think though not sure. Most liley to have a septic fosse, which of course you have to sort out, havae to be careful what products you clean the bog with and use for cleaning otheriwise you'll kill the bacteria, basically you pay to have the fose pumped out when full.
"Asians make things and sell them to Americans, who borrow money from their suppliers (on the inflated value of their houses) in order to continue living beyond their means. Asians take their profits and either relend them to Americans...or use them to buy more productive capacity, in America and elsewhere.

For those who wonder where this trend will lead, we offer a guess: The average American will be left with a shoeshine kit and instructions on how to say 'please' and 'thank you' in Chinese...."

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#45 Bruce Banner

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Posted 16 June 2012 - 09:46 AM

A massive volcano wiped out the first Greek civilsation, the Minoans. Wasn't that long ago in geological terms.


A GP friend of mine reckons it was AIDS that wiped out the ancient Greeks.
.



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lest there be any doubt.

No I believe prices will fall and am astounded that a so called Conservative led government could act in such a stupid way. As you can see from today, there are 2,000 HtB applicants and it has been on MSM none stop all day and they make up about 3.5% of a typical months mortgages.

BTL is a good potential way to bankruptcy and yes sometimes I make points to hopefully make people think.





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