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Uk Economy Will Stall Until 2013, Says Item Club


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#1 bmf

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 09:39 PM

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-17706336

It forecasts "dismal" growth of 0.4% this year, rising to 1.5% in 2013.


From 16th Jan 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16571049

Even if a solution was found, Britain's economy would still only grow by 1.75% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014, it said.



From 17th Oct 2011
Wrong
http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15326778

It says growth should pick up to 1.5% in 2012, although that is also well under the 2.2% it previously predicted.


From 18th April 2011


http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-13110062
Wrong

The Item Club expects the UK economy to grow by 1.8% this year.

It then forecasts the growth rate will rise to 2.3% in 2012 and 2.7% in 2013.



From 18th Oct 2010

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-11561137
Wrong

Gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 1.4% this year and 2.2% in 2011, the Ernst & Young ITEM club predicted.


The consistently overestimate growth. Now they are saying 0.4%. Oh dear!

#2 tinker

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 10:22 PM

How do they know?

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#3 zugzwang

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 10:29 PM

If all the world's economists were laid end to end, that would be the best possible use you could make of them.

zugzwang (n.) a situation where every possible move or decision is a bad one, or one that will result in damage or loss.

 

It's not a recovery, it's a relapse.


#4 KingBingo

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 10:32 PM

GDP growth is a sack of shit. It would be like analysing a company by looking at its P&L but ignoring its Cash Flow statement and Balance Sheet.

Is any of this 'GDP Growth' productive? Is it all just cycling money round the system?


Put it this way if I built a block of luxury in the middle of Dartmouth moors for 2m, then the day after I finish I spend another 1m demolishing it and restoring the area to how it was before according to the way we look at growth I have just grown the economy by 3m, when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by 3m.

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.
The truth is that the economies of rich countries, including the UK, are being kept alive by another and astonishingly under-reported bull market in government debt. This is the bond bubble; and when it bursts, as it surely will, the result will be a recession far deeper than the crash from which we are trying to recover.

Allister Heath
17 September 2011

#5 tinker

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 10:37 PM

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.

One of the many reasons we are screwed. Unfortunately, general economic ignorance allows this distorted view to continue. The housing market is a prime example - literally a waste of money, yet will boost GDP.

Edited by tinker, 16 April 2012 - 11:19 PM.


#6 bmf

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 10:41 PM

One of the many reasons we are screwed. Unfortunately, general economic ignorance allows this distorted view to continue. The housing market is a prime example - literally a waste of money, get will boost GDP.


Totally agree with this.

The wider point is Item club predictions carry weight. They are propping up the UK gilt market with false hope of growth always being "just around the corner". Better if they did what they do at the grand national. Get it over with already.

#7 The Masked Tulip

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 10:44 PM

If all the world's economists were laid end to end, that would be the best possible use you could make of them.



If all the world's economists got laid then their forecasts might be more accurate!
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.

#8 bmf

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 10:48 PM

If all the world's economists got laid then their forecasts might be more accurate!


They should have a retrospective global act to make all economist degrees BA not BSc.

http://www.city.ac.u...duate/economics

The Economics BSc will help you gain the professional skills and experience employers demand, putting you ahead of the competition in the graduate job market. You can apply for an optional one‐year work placement, and many students undertake summer internships in the City.

Recent placements have included: HM Treasury; RBS; GlaxoSmithKline; Foreign and Commonwealth Office; PriceWaterhouseCoopers; Department for Work and Pensions; Ministry of Defence; Goldman Sachs;Financial Ombudsman Service.


Wonder if the ones at RBS have been sacked yet.

#9 mrpleasant

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 05:41 AM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17706336



From 16th Jan 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16571049



From 17th Oct 2011
Wrong
http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15326778


From 18th April 2011


http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-13110062
Wrong




From 18th Oct 2010

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-11561137
Wrong



The consistently overestimate growth. Now they are saying 0.4%. Oh dear!


Excellent work. Positively Orwellian in scale and required reading for anyone who buys the message to the masses that recovery is just around the corner.

#10 OnlyMe

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 06:03 AM

The filter through rate of inflation - the onl sort of growth they know is not what they expected.

Demand destruction, higher costs acting as an impediment to investment in this country obviously don't figure in their analysis.

Did they mention when all the lost during the boom were coming back?

Edited by OnlyMe, 17 April 2012 - 06:03 AM.

"Asians make things and sell them to Americans, who borrow money from their suppliers (on the inflated value of their houses) in order to continue living beyond their means. Asians take their profits and either relend them to Americans...or use them to buy more productive capacity, in America and elsewhere.

For those who wonder where this trend will lead, we offer a guess: The average American will be left with a shoeshine kit and instructions on how to say 'please' and 'thank you' in Chinese...."

Bill Bonner.

Socialists want socialism for everyone else, but capitalism for themselves, while capitalists want capitalism for everyone else, but socialism for themselves.
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#11 aSecureTenant

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 06:51 AM

GDP growth is a sack of shit. It would be like analysing a company by looking at its P&L but ignoring its Cash Flow statement and Balance Sheet.

Is any of this 'GDP Growth' productive? Is it all just cycling money round the system?


Put it this way if I built a block of luxury in the middle of Dartmouth moors for 2m, then the day after I finish I spend another 1m demolishing it and restoring the area to how it was before according to the way we look at growth I have just grown the economy by 3m, when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by 3m.

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.



All the other countries use the "sack of shit" measurement too?

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Ignoring ALL UKIP and 'Election' threads on HPC until further notice


#12 Gone baby gone

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 06:57 AM

All the other countries use the "sack of shit" measurement too?


It's easy to manipulate - and therefore ideal for those in government!

#13 Gone baby gone

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 07:04 AM

To the OP - great work!

Accountants - handy guys, when you need some figures added up. No so hot at predicting the future though. :rolleyes: It's also worth noting that most of these guys didn't see the current financial malaise until we were knee deep in it.

Would you buy a map that can only show you the road ahead when the path is straight and level? That's effectively what most economists seem to be - people who can occasionally spot small changes, but consistently miss the large, important ones.

#14 bmf

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 07:15 AM

Excellent work. Positively Orwellian in scale and required reading for anyone who buys the message to the masses that recovery is just around the corner.


Took me 5 minutes of googling. I couldn't be bothered but if I had more time i'd find more data points then plot them against the actual growth rate with a "reality gap". I'd also do this for the pathetic BoE fan chart predictions.

#15 Killer Bunny

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 07:44 AM

Put it this way if I built a block of luxury in the middle of Dartmouth moors for 2m, then the day after I finish I spend another 1m demolishing it and restoring the area to how it was before according to the way we look at growth I have just grown the economy by 3m, when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by 3m.

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.

Voila Keynesianism.

In 1931 they did not know yet that they were in The Great Depression
Cap'n, you cannae change the laws of... Economics!
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