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Post Olympics Meltdown


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#1 pyewackitt

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:01 PM

Starting from some comments in the BBC news thread it got me thinking on the mini-boom we could be entering and more importantly what will happen as we end the summer and things revert back to the norm.

Here's a few starters on things that may happen in the post Olympics UK - try to think of things specific to having a major Olympics in the UK not just summer.

1) Reduced sales of TV's and Sky packages etc.
2) Reduced sales of Booze, BBQ goods etc.
3) Reduced sales of all associated transport, hotels, private lettings etc.
4) Higher unemployment as the Games economy ends
5) Lower income from congestion zone, parking fines and clamping
6) Impact to Olypmics spend related industries - construction, hospitality, catering etc.

What else can HPC'ers think of to add?

- Pye

"While economic textbooks claim that people and corporations are competing for markets and resources, I claim that in reality they are competing for money - using markets and resources to do so. Greed and fear of scarcity are being continuously created and amplified as a direct result of the kind of money we are using. For example, we can produce more than enough food to feed everybody, and there is definitely not enough work for everybody in the world, but there is clearly not enough money to pay for it all. In fact, the job of central banks is to create and maintain that currency scarcity. Money is created when banks lend it into existence When a bank provides you with a $100,000 mortgage, it creates only the principal, which you spend and which then circulates in the economy. The bank expects you to pay back $200,000 over the next 20 years, but it doesn't create the second $100,000 - the interest. Instead, the bank sends you out into the tough world to battle against everybody else to bring back the second $100,000."

- Bernard Lietaer, Former Central Banker

#2 Monkey

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:09 PM

i dont think ti will just be the Olympics, but the Euro's and the Jubilee which will affect consumer sentiment, and also peoples spending "patterns"

ive been banging on about the ecconomic effect major sporting events have when they are not even in this Country, let alone when they are, and have such the fanfair in the lead up to it.

my post from that BBC thread http://www.housepric...pic=176741&st=0

its not so much the London area (which will have a knock on affect with prices) but the distraction of these 3 major events happening in sucession during the summer. how i see it going

this will impact retail sales a bit. during, but i'm expecting electrical sales to jump in between april and June, where people buy new TV's etc for the sports, expecialyl now freeview HD will be avalaible to 90% of the UK.

Food shops will see a surge in Alcohol sales as well as BBQ staples. during the 3 months, this will be because people will choose to drink at home more and have more BBQ's "parties" than go to the pub. Pub takings will slump over June july and August, they wil lrecover a bit in September when they start doing new promotions.

Holiday companys will also get hit, as people stay in the UK for holiday, same as above

i personally think Q1 and the start of Q2 will be a non event for the Ecconomy, but it will be hailed as a recovery and that Georgie will be revered as the saviour. the real SHTF moment will be the end of Q2 - Q3 once the party's have finised, and the summer events have gone, and the reality of life kicks back in. remember the fuel duty rise of 3p has been postponed to August/september, this wil lhit companies and individuals hard. especially if fuel rises like it is. and with the July 1st treaty for the whole of Europe not ot buy fuel from iran, fuel in Europe at least wil lget more scarse and expensive.

THIS is when we will see a sharp rise in unemployement, (120,000+ in september alone) companies like HMV, Blockbusters, Comet will be on their last legs. some optomism will be there as Xmas is comming. but do this Xmas is the one that will really make or break the Retail sector, as people either spend less or shop online more.

but thats only my opnion, i could be and will probably be miles off the mark

#3 culvers

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:33 PM

i think you might be over estimating the effect the olympics has, particularly on the tv sales/sky subs bit - everyone i know couldnt give a toss about it

#4 Monkey

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:34 PM

i think you might be over estimating the effect the olympics has, particularly on the tv sales/sky subs bit - everyone i know couldnt give a toss about it


its the Euros though, Football sells TV's and people may be using the olympics as a second justification to the missus to warrent spending upto £1000 on a new flash TV. 2 for 1 if you like.

#5 Normski

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 05:46 PM

I think culvers is broadly correct. Not many people give a flying fig about the Olympics. It will get talked about and watched, for sure, but it's hardly the football world cup.

#6 curious1

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 06:43 PM

Starting from some comments in the BBC news thread it got me thinking on the mini-boom we could be entering and more importantly what will happen as we end the summer and things revert back to the norm.

Here's a few starters on things that may happen in the post Olympics UK - try to think of things specific to having a major Olympics in the UK not just summer.

1) Reduced sales of TV's and Sky packages etc.
2) Reduced sales of Booze, BBQ goods etc.
3) Reduced sales of all associated transport, hotels, private lettings etc.
4) Higher unemployment as the Games economy ends
5) Lower income from congestion zone, parking fines and clamping
6) Impact to Olypmics spend related industries - construction, hospitality, catering etc.

What else can HPC'ers think of to add?

- Pye


construction sector slump leading to net export of working population pushing rentals down?

#7 Flatdog

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 07:12 PM

i think you might be over estimating the effect the olympics has, particularly on the tv sales/sky subs bit - everyone i know couldnt give a toss about it



Hear hear.
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#8 RufflesTheGuineaPig

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 07:33 PM

what will happen as we end the summer and things revert back to the norm.


Hundreds of thousands will be made homeless in a fire-storm of repossession and will end up living in aircraft hangers.
It's time to pay the piper. There is no magician who will magic away the debt. Someone is going to have to pay it. Bend over and prepare to make payment.

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#9 Pent Up

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 07:34 PM

What mini boom?

Rents in London are falling now. -5% in north London according to Savills last month.
Remember that buying a house is a highly leveraged investment and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Buying a house may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.


"The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets" Baron Nathan Rothschild

#10 spyguy

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 07:57 PM

Hear hear.


And me. I might watch the women beach ball on telly if Im around but the rest .. not interest.
Oh maybe the repeats if that skinny paula woman has a dump but thats it.

I'd guess the first rounds of the world cup feature the faroe islands vs north korea gets more viewers than the olympics.

#11 OnlyMe

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 08:04 PM

Will make a big difference in london - there's a lot of locust property speculators that follow the olympics property trail hoping to cash in. They have to sell up to move their money onto the next venue.

Edited by OnlyMe, 23 March 2012 - 09:35 PM.

"Asians make things and sell them to Americans, who borrow money from their suppliers (on the inflated value of their houses) in order to continue living beyond their means. Asians take their profits and either relend them to Americans...or use them to buy more productive capacity, in America and elsewhere.

For those who wonder where this trend will lead, we offer a guess: The average American will be left with a shoeshine kit and instructions on how to say 'please' and 'thank you' in Chinese...."

Bill Bonner.

Socialists want socialism for everyone else, but capitalism for themselves, while capitalists want capitalism for everyone else, but socialism for themselves.
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#12 John The Pessimist

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 09:02 PM

The East end of London is one of the few parts of the city where it can be economical to manufacture for the London Market. So what do they do? They decide to restrict the A12 & A13 to 1 lane for 18 hours per day for 10 weeks.

Olympics Uplift? Last nail in the coffin for London industry...
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#13 bmf

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 09:07 PM

What mini boom?

Rents in London are falling now. -5% in north London according to Savills last month.


Link please!

#14 Take Me Back To London!

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 09:39 PM

London looks rough, even in Central London, dirty streets, building works, broken roads, defective street lighting, tatty Underground and I can't see it getting better.
Bankers may well have acted as if they’ve been sitting in the casino during the boom years. But it was a state-owned casino, with governments as the croupiers, and central bankers behind the bar giving out free booze.

John Stepek

#15 Pent Up

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 09:47 PM

Link please!


It was prime rentals on an annual basis. Never actually read the report just saw it on twitter. Here it is:

http://pdf.euro.savi...ngs-q1-2012.pdf

Still not looking great considering the Olympic effect that everyone is raving about.
Remember that buying a house is a highly leveraged investment and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Buying a house may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.


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