[Killer Bunny]

scottbeard, on 05 March 2012 - 12:56 PM, said:

What's your logic?

I recently sold some shares, but it was gut feeling rather than logic.

Greece being priced in, Small Caps rolling over, $ rising, Transports rollig over, Apple topping etc etc

[zugzwang]

Killer Bunny, on 05 March 2012 - 07:09 PM, said:

Greece being priced in, Small Caps rolling over, $ rising, Transports rollig over, Apple topping etc etc

Also noteworthy:


Baltic Dry Goods Index.

Apple, Goog trading at ~600

Continuing oil/fuel price run up

Iran

ECRI still calling recession

Benny having to furlough QE3 'til 2013 because of inflation


It could prove to be a Very Black Year...

[SeeYouNextTuesday]

zugzwang, on 05 March 2012 - 10:14 PM, said:

Also noteworthy:


Baltic Dry Goods Index.

Apple, Goog trading at ~600

Continuing oil/fuel price run up

Iran

ECRI still calling recession

Benny having to furlough QE3 'til 2013 because of inflation


It could prove to be a Very Black Year...

When is the Book of Face IPO?

[zugzwang]

A day early and a dollar short.

Story of my life.

[Ruffneck]

Hey at least it's not your day job unlike the bozo economists who failed to predict the GFC

[R K]

MrTReturns, on 05 March 2012 - 03:39 PM, said:

I am talking about probabilities - there are research papers on this going back for a century.

Not every presidential year will be bullish, but out of the four year cycle this year is the most bullish leading up to the election.

Your evidence please?

http://www.businessi...-pattern-2011-7

Quote

Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch compiled Dow Jones data dating back to 1896 and found the following:

- the third year of a presidential cycle significantly outperforms all others, with average stock market gains of 15.5% compared to 8.8% in the first year, 0.4% in the second, and 4.1% in the fourth year; his years begin at the end of September because data is quarterly and elections occur in November

- the market performance in the third year of a presidential cycle is not statistically correlated to the market performance of the previous year; in other words, third years have tended to outperform other years regardless of whether the second year in the cycle experienced a boom or a bust

- he also found that there is no significant correlation between stock valuations and market performances in the third year; "On average, third years perform just as well when price/earnings ratios are high as they do when those ratios are low"

So 4th year appears to be 3rd worst according to Hulbert.

DOW (for consistency) is up c. 21% since beginning of October. 500% outperformance (so far).

#justsayin

Edit: Formatting link

This post has been edited by Red Knight: 14 March 2012 - 11:22 AM

[felix]

Get ready for it!

[crashmonitor]

bulltraderpt, on 22 October 2012 - 07:42 AM, said:

When though?

OK I'm going for this coming Friday.

I'm struggling to see the upside, we have had about a 14% return with dividends since the end of May on the FTSE 100, at the time everyone was predicting a 2009 meltdown in the shadow of the Greek elections and even brokers were advising a hold as opposed to buy with a 5900 sell target. Nothing much has changed on the Euro front, especially now the Spanish are dragging their feet on the bailout. Surely a time to cash out and wait for another buying opportunity sub 5500.

Even so the market is holding up remarkably well, my pessimism has to be balanced against a wall of QE, enforced pension enrolment and tbh equities look at damn site cheaper than gold and bonds.

This post has been edited by crashmonitor: 22 October 2012 - 09:47 AM

[Grrrr I'm a tiger]

interesting....



http://quantifiablee...fiable+Edges%29



(personally seems unlikely because bonds didn't really confirm a big sell off imo)

[crashmonitor]

bulltraderpt, on 22 October 2012 - 08:01 PM, said:

Yes that was interesting, thanks, so this Friday it is then!

It just doesn't feel great this week. Earnings figure continue to disappoint, the Bank is considering chucking Qe (but nothing like a crash on the markets to make them change their mind) and predictions are that Germany can no loger defy gravity and it could go negative in Q4 for only the second time since the crunch. And of course the Spanish continue to argue the toss over the bailout conditions and their citizens are ready to trash the joint if they don't get frre welfare money off Germany they don't earn.

I could be wrong, but I was relieved to discover that my tracker was sold out at 5900 on Friday following my written instructions.n

[Grrrr I'm a tiger]

http://macro-man.blo...%28Macro+Man%29

[R K]

Thomas Paine, on 22 October 2012 - 02:37 PM, said:

interesting....



http://quantifiablee...fiable+Edges%29



(personally seems unlikely because bonds didn't really confirm a big sell off imo)

It's the dollar innit.

It's been in a fairly tight range for the last 6 weeks which accounts for the apparent weakness in equities.

If it breaks up risk's off, if it breaks down risk is on again. So it's either a continuation or reversal.


Edit: FWIW I suspect we may well have another 2-3 months left of this risk upleg (following this dip) which will take us into Q1. At which point the risk of a more serious correction looks to increase.

This post has been edited by Red Knight: 23 October 2012 - 11:23 AM

[Grrrr I'm a tiger]

interesting (part deux)


http://quantifiablee...fiable+Edges%29

[crashmonitor]

felix, on 21 October 2012 - 09:43 PM, said:

Get ready for it!

Absolutely looked like a black week and now we are floundering on 5770 from 5900, this despite the fact that we got the 1% GDP boost to sentiment. I sold out last Friday because it looked pretty obvious that we were on for an absolute shocker this week. Whether this is the start of something that brings us back into buying territory remains to be seen, I would consider it at 5500. The GDP stats may sustain the rally, it was up 14% from my buying point during the Greek elections, on the other hand it may have to do without Qe props. Thought I had better cash in my 6K gain and claim my one sixty millionth share of the 375 bn QE before Lord Turner turns it into helicopter money by forgiving the debt.

This post has been edited by crashmonitor: 26 October 2012 - 09:55 AM