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Black Monday !


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#16 Killer Bunny

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Posted 05 March 2012 - 07:09 PM

What's your logic?

I recently sold some shares, but it was gut feeling rather than logic.

Greece being priced in, Small Caps rolling over, $ rising, Transports rollig over, Apple topping etc etc

In 1931 they did not know yet that they were in The Great Depression
Cap'n, you cannae change the laws of... Economics!
"If they raise rates we're toast. If they don't its BECAUSE we're toast" Pundit: Sky News March 2011
"That which is unsustainable will not sustain" Milton Friedman


#17 zugzwang

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Posted 05 March 2012 - 10:14 PM

Greece being priced in, Small Caps rolling over, $ rising, Transports rollig over, Apple topping etc etc


Also noteworthy:


Baltic Dry Goods Index.

Apple, Goog trading at ~600

Continuing oil/fuel price run up

Iran

ECRI still calling recession

Benny having to furlough QE3 'til 2013 because of inflation


It could prove to be a Very Black Year...

Posted Image
It's not a recovery, it's a relapse.

Welcome to Bluffdale (population approx. 7,000,000,000) - where even a windswept leaf has too much freedom.





#18 7 Year Itch

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Posted 05 March 2012 - 10:27 PM

Also noteworthy:


Baltic Dry Goods Index.

Apple, Goog trading at ~600

Continuing oil/fuel price run up

Iran

ECRI still calling recession

Benny having to furlough QE3 'til 2013 because of inflation


It could prove to be a Very Black Year...

Posted Image

When is the Book of Face IPO?

There is no ladder.

JY


No need to sell up, the next phase of the economics cycle is going to be very positive for anyone that owns property.

All I'm sayings is, don't listen to the property bears people, they are wrong.


#19 zugzwang

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 04:12 PM

A day early and a dollar short.

Story of my life.

:rolleyes::lol:
It's not a recovery, it's a relapse.

Welcome to Bluffdale (population approx. 7,000,000,000) - where even a windswept leaf has too much freedom.





#20 Ruffneck

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 10:40 AM

Hey at least it's not your day job unlike the bozo economists who failed to predict the GFC
“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
• Kenneth Watt, Ecologist , Earth Day 1970

#21 R K

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 11:18 AM

I am talking about probabilities - there are research papers on this going back for a century.

Not every presidential year will be bullish, but out of the four year cycle this year is the most bullish leading up to the election.


Your evidence please?

http://www.businessi...-pattern-2011-7

Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch compiled Dow Jones data dating back to 1896 and found the following:

- the third year of a presidential cycle significantly outperforms all others, with average stock market gains of 15.5% compared to 8.8% in the first year, 0.4% in the second, and 4.1% in the fourth year; his years begin at the end of September because data is quarterly and elections occur in November

- the market performance in the third year of a presidential cycle is not statistically correlated to the market performance of the previous year; in other words, third years have tended to outperform other years regardless of whether the second year in the cycle experienced a boom or a bust

- he also found that there is no significant correlation between stock valuations and market performances in the third year; "On average, third years perform just as well when price/earnings ratios are high as they do when those ratios are low"


So 4th year appears to be 3rd worst according to Hulbert.

DOW (for consistency) is up c. 21% since beginning of October. 500% outperformance (so far).

#justsayin

Edit: Formatting link

Edited by Red Knight, 14 March 2012 - 11:22 AM.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#22 felix

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Posted 21 October 2012 - 09:43 PM

Get ready for it!

#23 crashmonitor

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Posted 22 October 2012 - 08:45 AM

When though? :unsure:

OK I'm going for this coming Friday.



I'm struggling to see the upside, we have had about a 14% return with dividends since the end of May on the FTSE 100, at the time everyone was predicting a 2009 meltdown in the shadow of the Greek elections and even brokers were advising a hold as opposed to buy with a 5900 sell target. Nothing much has changed on the Euro front, especially now the Spanish are dragging their feet on the bailout. Surely a time to cash out and wait for another buying opportunity sub 5500.

Even so the market is holding up remarkably well, my pessimism has to be balanced against a wall of QE, enforced pension enrolment and tbh equities look at damn site cheaper than gold and bonds.

Edited by crashmonitor, 22 October 2012 - 09:47 AM.

My name is Ozymandias
Mervyn the King
Look upon my printing works ye Bears
And Despair

#24 hotairmail

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Posted 22 October 2012 - 02:37 PM

interesting....



http://quantifiablee...tifiable Edges)



(personally seems unlikely because bonds didn't really confirm a big sell off imo)



#25 crashmonitor

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 08:52 AM

Yes that was interesting, thanks, so this Friday it is then! :)



It just doesn't feel great this week. Earnings figure continue to disappoint, the Bank is considering chucking Qe (but nothing like a crash on the markets to make them change their mind) and predictions are that Germany can no loger defy gravity and it could go negative in Q4 for only the second time since the crunch. And of course the Spanish continue to argue the toss over the bailout conditions and their citizens are ready to trash the joint if they don't get frre welfare money off Germany they don't earn.

I could be wrong, but I was relieved to discover that my tracker was sold out at 5900 on Friday following my written instructions.n
My name is Ozymandias
Mervyn the King
Look upon my printing works ye Bears
And Despair

#26 hotairmail

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 10:25 AM

http://macro-man.blo...Man (Macro Man)



#27 R K

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 10:50 AM

interesting....



http://quantifiablee...fiable+Edges%29



(personally seems unlikely because bonds didn't really confirm a big sell off imo)


It's the dollar innit.

It's been in a fairly tight range for the last 6 weeks which accounts for the apparent weakness in equities.

If it breaks up risk's off, if it breaks down risk is on again. So it's either a continuation or reversal. :D


Edit: FWIW I suspect we may well have another 2-3 months left of this risk upleg (following this dip) which will take us into Q1. At which point the risk of a more serious correction looks to increase.

Edited by Red Knight, 23 October 2012 - 11:23 AM.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#28 hotairmail

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 12:54 PM

interesting (part deux)


http://quantifiablee...tifiable Edges)



#29 crashmonitor

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 09:54 AM

Get ready for it!



Absolutely looked like a black week and now we are floundering on 5770 from 5900, this despite the fact that we got the 1% GDP boost to sentiment. I sold out last Friday because it looked pretty obvious that we were on for an absolute shocker this week. Whether this is the start of something that brings us back into buying territory remains to be seen, I would consider it at 5500. The GDP stats may sustain the rally, it was up 14% from my buying point during the Greek elections, on the other hand it may have to do without Qe props. Thought I had better cash in my 6K gain and claim my one sixty millionth share of the 375 bn QE before Lord Turner turns it into helicopter money by forgiving the debt.

Edited by crashmonitor, 26 October 2012 - 09:55 AM.

My name is Ozymandias
Mervyn the King
Look upon my printing works ye Bears
And Despair




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