Probably depends on what the success criteria of the exercise are. If they happen to be dealing with BVR bogeys killed then you're still rather stuffed.
But for BVR fighting, what you're flying is irrelevant other than the weapons and sensors it carries. A Cessna would win against an F-22 if it could see the F-22 and hit it before the F-22 fired back.
If you believe the future is shooting missiles at a blob on the radar screen from fifty miles away, you should be buying large numbers of cheap drones, not tiny numbers of incredibly expensive fighters.