[Si1]

when, on 15 February 2012 - 02:55 PM, said:

Please try and answer in a more mature manner, otherwise dont bother.

Negative equity is only if you owe more than the property is worth so maybe I wont be in that position.

Maybe I'm in the process of buying.

Maybe I have more balls than you will ever have.


I would prefer if you think before posting.

the compound costs of paying double what a property is worth a few years later are enormous

do you understand what compound costs are? opportunity cost? investment return?

I have thought oh so much more than you have about this

having balls is about challenging your own simple minded preconceptions, which is something you have failed to do

[Dorkins]

marcusthe, on 15 February 2012 - 03:05 PM, said:

Surprised no one has mentioned BTL and the impact on home ownership. I cannot see a crash because as soon as prices slide enough to offer a potential good yield then they will be snapped up by cash buyers who are frustrated with low savings rates.

I very much doubt there is enough BTL-wannabe cash lying around to outbid an entire generation of would-be-homeowners.

[Si1]

when, on 15 February 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:

Ulitmatly most people on this site would like to own there home, youself included?

I dont understand what you trying to established if by one day you yourself will own a house you to will "no matter where you sit, you're looking at something you should be doing." ?

a home is only an asset, I wish to have assets in my life as they pay an income (imputed virtual rent if you own your own home), however a home is only one possible such asset

the long term real income of property is exactly the same as for other real investable assets owing to market arbitrage over the long term - do you know what the word 'arbitrage' means? I suggest you look it up.

So no, the smart don't necessarily want to own a home for its own sake, however they may well end up doing so if, as an asset with a yield, it makes sense

in numerate thinking man's terms it does not add up right now; however there other less quantifiable terms under which you may wish to be a homeowner, of course; an argument towards capital losses not being an issue if you have a big enough deposit does not wash, if you think about it, which you haven't

[Si1]

when, on 15 February 2012 - 03:18 PM, said:

Whats compound costs got to do with your original reply to my post?

fair play

compound costs ball-crunching too

[marcusthe]

But they are being outbid by landlords, particularly at the FTB end of the market, I have seen it happening at auctions and its all I hear from Estate Agents.

One decent area of Bristol has a landlord who basically hoovers up everything. According to a couple of estate agents he gets in there even before they are uploaded to Rightmove.

How the f*** can the average FTB compete with that!

[Si1]

marcusthe, on 15 February 2012 - 03:22 PM, said:

But they are being outbid by landlords, particularly at the FTB end of the market, I have seen it happening at auctions and its all I hear from Estate Agents.

One decent area of Bristol has a landlord who basically hoovers up everything. According to a couple of estate agents he gets in there even before they are uploaded to Rightmove.

How the f*** can the average FTB compete with that!

why would you want to?

he's going to lose his shirt, as are Accord/YBS mortgages who seem to be doing all the BTL lending these days, having poached the ex-BTL business team off Bradford and Bingley after they went bust...

(there's also the question of whether the agents are acting legally - if he is buying at discount prices and FTBs would pay more but never get near the sale then the agents, or the repossessing bank, are acting illegally - could this be happening?

This post has been edited by Si1: 15 February 2012 - 03:25 PM

[Si1]

marcusthe, on 15 February 2012 - 03:05 PM, said:

Surprised no one has mentioned BTL and the impact on home ownership. I cannot see a crash because as soon as prices slide enough to offer a potential good yield then they will be snapped up by cash buyers who are frustrated with low savings rates.

it is deeply uninformed to directly compare savings rates with asset yields - obviously asset yields carry a heavier risk than cash income

people who have (foolishly) entered BTL on this basis will run for the hills when they hit their first serious loss (which happens in any real asset market) if they have a cash-investor's risk profile, this will compound the crash

[Bloo Loo]

when, on 15 February 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:

Ulitmatly most people on this site would like to own there home, youself included?

I dont understand what you trying to established if by one day you yourself will own a house you to will "no matter where you sit, you're looking at something you should be doing." ?

sounds like you need to get a life, let alone getting on with one.

[Mildura]

marcusthe, on 15 February 2012 - 03:22 PM, said:

But they are being outbid by landlords, particularly at the FTB end of the market, I have seen it happening at auctions and its all I hear from Estate Agents.

One decent area of Bristol has a landlord who basically hoovers up everything. According to a couple of estate agents he gets in there even before they are uploaded to Rightmove.

How the f*** can the average FTB compete with that!

I have heard similar reports. Someone I know is in the process of buying two properties in the North East which she intends to rent out. Purchase price for each is around £60k, with an expected monthly rent of £450. This is a far better return than this person currently receives on her savings in the bank. (Before everyone starts, I know it's not quite as straightforward as that, with void periods, maintenance, tax etc, but it's her decision not mine.)

This post has been edited by Mildura: 15 February 2012 - 03:37 PM

[Si1]

Mildura, on 15 February 2012 - 03:36 PM, said:

I have heard similar reports. Someone I know is in the process of buying two properties in the North East which she intends to rent out. Purchase price for each is around £60k, with an expected monthly rent of £450. This is a far better return than this person currently receives on her savings in the bank. (Before everyone starts, I know it's not quite as straightforward as that, with void periods, maintenance, tax etc, but it's her decision not mine.)

so you agree it is a deflating speculative bubble that will continue to deflate as specualtors realise that assets and cash returns are not strictly comparable?

[Hat]

when, on 15 February 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

I agree but how long can you wait for. I've waited 4.5 years and still no crash here in Essex. I dont have the luxury of time on my side therefore at some point I need to get on with life.

In the previous housing crash starting in 1989, houses prices didn't bottom out until 1998- a full 9 years later.

This bubble was far larger, but even if the timeline was as last time, you'd be looking to expect to wait until at least 2016 before reaching the trough.

The truth is, we may yet be 10 years or more from the bottom. If you don't mind me asking, why is it that you do not have the luxury of time?

[Mildura]

Si1, on 15 February 2012 - 03:42 PM, said:

so you agree it is a deflating speculative bubble that will continue to deflate as specualtors realise that assets and cash returns are not strictly comparable?

I would agree that illiquid assets and cash deposits are not strictly comparable, and the likelihood for many parts of the country is that property values are likely to stagnate, at best, for a number of years to come. However I can understand how someone who is retired say, with cash sat in the bank earning them 1-2%pa would be tempted by purchasing a property to let out which may give them a better return. Whether that is a wise decision for them to take will need to be judged in years to come.

In a way are those that do not wish to buy speculating just as much as those they are currently buying? When it comes to trying to predict exactly where prices are heading there are those that don't know and those that don't know they don't know.

[Goat]

VI trolling bulls*** meme #1:

when, on 15 February 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

I agree but how long can you wait for. I've waited 4.5 years and still no crash here in Essex.

When the alternative is financial suicide I suggest you wait as long as it takes.


VI trolling bulls*** meme #2:

when, on 15 February 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

I need to get on with life.

[Hat]

JonoP, on 15 February 2012 - 12:10 PM, said:

Houses in the mid nineties were undervalued

Why do you think that? Long term historical data suggests that house prices were highly overvalued in the mid-90s. For example see "Safe as Houses" by Neil Monnery.

[Bloo Loo]

Mildura, on 15 February 2012 - 03:36 PM, said:

I have heard similar reports. Someone I know is in the process of buying two properties in the North East which she intends to rent out. Purchase price for each is around £60k, with an expected monthly rent of £450. This is a far better return than this person currently receives on her savings in the bank. (Before everyone starts, I know it's not quite as straightforward as that, with void periods, maintenance, tax etc, but it's her decision not mine.)

yeah, buying unseen no doubt...has she been on a course?