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#1 hedi

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:31 AM

a lot of people on here recently are getting disgruntled about how things have panned out.

i personally left the market a few years ago with a hopefull expection that the boom was over. well, the boom is over. outside of london houses have been slipping somewhat slowly, but slipping. no there has not been a crash. well with .5 pct base rate that not really a supprise. the govenment has done all it can, along with banks who would go bust,lets be honest if a crash happened, to maintain prices as best they can.

a lot of us took the perfectly rational view that booms come to an end one way or another. we never invisaged a reasonably sound economic state printing money, who did.
but that was our gamble. thats what investment is.

the question is what to do now, not bitch about how we might have got it wrong.

if you need a large mortgage to buy then a house must me looked upon as an investment that can lose money. if you are buying for cash, then it somewhere to house you rent free.

as an investment , i think that the housing market has little going for it long term. there are many aspect often overlooked.

forget about short term things like interet rates and btl, they can in some ways be contrived by amanipulation, but other things can not.

the big one is financial demographics. simple logic, poorer people cannot afford more expensive housing. and we are going to get poorer, in real terms, and barring some unknown unknown thats a fact. this applies to the whole of europe.

the young are the hpc saviours. if you are fifty or sixty and sitting on your 1m pound property hoping to sell in 10 years for 2m and retire, i am affraid you are in for a nasty shock. where on earth do you think someone who is 30 now is going to get that sort of money, when they are years away from their first flat. and remember baby boomers, there are an awful lot of you who will all want to be selling at the same time, just as you all wanted to buy at the same time. (incidently forcing up prices) and how many are going to want to sell the second homes as well.

demographics is the real clue to long term investment. and from what i can see we are going japanese. moreso in the rest of europe than here.

the real question is what now. as far as i can see the govenment and bank are trying to stear the good ship uk economy( and west in total) between the rocks of depressive deflation and the waterfall of hyper inflation ( consequence of money printing) . now at the moment it looks like they are succeeding.but the straights of water between the two are getting narrower and there is no sign of open ocean yet, what ever they tell you.

baised on historical evidence the good ship britian will hit the rocks or go over the water fall. the problem is that the debts are so vast that depression could come or they are printing so much money it could be hyper inflation. now im no expert and from what i read no one really has any idea which way this will go. so all i think you can do is hedge your bets, have some multinational assests, have some cash. and jump one way or the other when it becomes clearer.

accept that you are not an expert and that you are going to become poorer in one way or another, keep an eye to trends stop worrying about volitility and try to come out of this with as mouch as you can save.
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#2 erranta

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:36 AM

a lot of people on here recently are getting disgruntled about how things have panned out.

i personally left the market a few years ago with a hopefull expection that the boom was over. well, the boom is over. outside of london houses have been slipping somewhat slowly, but slipping. no there has not been a crash. well with .5 pct base rate that not really a supprise. the govenment has done all it can, along with banks who would go bust,lets be honest if a crash happened, to maintain prices as best they can.

a lot of us took the perfectly rational view that booms come to an end one way or another. we never invisaged a reasonably sound economic state printing money, who did.
but that was our gamble. thats what investment is.

the question is what to do now, not bitch about how we might have got it wrong.

if you need a large mortgage to buy then a house must me looked upon as an investment that can lose money. if you are buying for cash, then it somewhere to house you rent free.

as an investment , i think that the housing market has little going for it long term. there are many aspect often overlooked.

forget about short term things like interet rates and btl, they can in some ways be contrived by amanipulation, but other things can not.

the big one is financial demographics. simple logic, poorer people cannot afford more expensive housing. and we are going to get poorer, in real terms, and barring some unknown unknown thats a fact. this applies to the whole of europe.

the young are the hpc saviours. if you are fifty or sixty and sitting on your 1m pound property hoping to sell in 10 years for 2m and retire, i am affraid you are in for a nasty shock. where on earth do you think someone who is 30 now is going to get that sort of money, when they are years away from their first flat. and remember baby boomers, there are an awful lot of you who will all want to be selling at the same time, just as you all wanted to buy at the same time. (incidently forcing up prices) and how many are going to want to sell the second homes as well.

demographics is the real clue to long term investment. and from what i can see we are going japanese. moreso in the rest of europe than here.

the real question is what now. as far as i can see the govenment and bank are trying to stear the good ship uk economy( and west in total) between the rocks of depressive deflation and the waterfall of hyper inflation ( consequence of money printing) . now at the moment it looks like they are succeeding.but the straights of water between the two are getting narrower and there is no sign of open ocean yet, what ever they tell you.

baised on historical evidence the good ship britian will hit the rocks or go over the water fall. the problem is that the debts are so vast that depression could come or they are printing so much money it could be hyper inflation. now im no expert and from what i read no one really has any idea which way this will go. so all i think you can do is hedge your bets, have some multinational assests, have some cash. and jump one way or the other when it becomes clearer.

accept that you are not an expert and that you are going to become poorer in one way or another, keep an eye to trends stop worrying about volitility and try to come out of this with as mouch as you can save.


We didn't get it wrong

Our country's leaders finally 'came out' as the corporatist-crony dictators they are (and have been - veiled for decades!)

"The rich man's wealth is his strong city, and as an high wall in his own conceit." Proverbs Ch18 v.11

Whistle Blow!
You know 'IT' makes sense!

Exploitation & corrupt Government / Elite Rule? They have nowhere to hide if we all EXPOSE their corruption!


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#3 guitarman001

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:41 AM

I think we're entitled to a rant - we've been shafted! However you are right, it's what we do from now. The only thing I'm focusing on is self-education and getting better at my job - as I gather more experience, if I don't get to where I want here, I will at least have the chance of moving abroad. That will be this year or next. Might not be the best solution but at least I'll have tried.

#4 Britney's Piers

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:41 AM

DrBubb has addressed this issue and has come up with the Libran portfolio.

#5 Redcellar

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:47 AM

I think we're entitled to a rant - we've been shafted! However you are right, it's what we do from now. The only thing I'm focusing on is self-education and getting better at my job - as I gather more experience, if I don't get to where I want here, I will at least have the chance of moving abroad. That will be this year or next. Might not be the best solution but at least I'll have tried.


It's far from over. We haven't seen the end of it. It's about to get really interesting, perhaps later than many here predicted, myself included. Now is the time of the bull trap.
Allegedly.

#6 Mikhail Liebenstein

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:51 AM

Guys I don't think you should despair just yet.

I doubtless be accused of gloating, but I did well from this site and its predictions.
I was lucky to STR just before the crash in 2007 and then bought back in in 2009 with some hard negotiations.

My take is that you need to make your own crash. The market is truly weird at the moment, and yes people are still selling for insane valuations whilst there is actually very little volume. If you want to buy at a discount you need to do some legwork - I was in rented for 2 years and in that time visited probably 200 potential houses until eventually, I found one I liked and where the vendor was willing to take a hit.

The 3 Ds are you friend - Death, Divorce and Debt, though I'd also add Desperate Developers to the list which is where I made my luck.

to the list which is where I made my luck.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein, 04 February 2012 - 11:56 AM.


#7 Giordano Bruno

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:54 AM

Why shouldn't I moan? I like a good moan. We didn't get it wrong, the gov't did and are still doing it wrong. The banks could and should have been allowed to fail if they had to. Depositors' money could have been protected or re-imbursed by gov't but the banks themselves are not essential for the depositors' money to be protected.

Moan, moan, moan. There. I feel better now.

----------------- ********************** -----------------


Regarding QE I think that Fiat Money Inflation in France is worth a read.

Property prices only ever go up ... except, of course, when they stay the same or when they come down.

You can go wrong with bricks and mortar.

The banksters need their lovely fat bonuses. The taxpayer has to pay.
Never mind, Taxpayer. Think of it as an exercise in generosity.

Profits will be privatized and losses will be socialized. - Thanks a bunch!

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#8 Sir Harold m

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:01 PM

I don't like the way this country has been run. I can see the flaws.
I do not cry about my personal circumstances because I can take action to hedge against mistakes.

We all know our currency is being devalued . Stop whinging that your 50k or whatever savings you have are being inflated.

By retaining in cash you are deliberately, wilfully, and explicitly accepting a counterparty whose credibility you doubt.

You are no different than a sub prime investor.

If you don't like the monetary policy of your fiat issuer short them or move your cash to gold .

This forum is full of people who were banging on about their pile of savings this time last year and how they hated chopper and merv and how qe was destroying their savings.

Did any of you keep it in Gbp despite your knowledge? Then stop whinging! You took a gamble and now you blame someone else for a decision you knew was wrong!

If you had 100k for a 50 pc deposit this time last year and you had switched it to gold, ( with a bit of quanto ) you could now almost buy your house . One year to buy half a house? How much more of a ******in crash do you want?

If you didn't move to gold ( I didn't) then you chose the wrong currency to invest in, proably because you didn't want to ! Your choice, your outcome, not my fickin problem !

Edited by Sir Harold m, 04 February 2012 - 12:05 PM.


#9 SleepyHead

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:04 PM

a lot of people on here recently are getting disgruntled about how things have panned out.





This isn't just about house prices. It's about the future.

Democracy, truth, and justice are being discarded in order to save this ponzi scheme. In that respect, your claim that we're just moaning about not getting a house price crash doesn't give us the credit we deserve.

Edited by sleeping dog, 04 February 2012 - 12:04 PM.


#10 Gigantic Purple Slug

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:26 PM

I don't like the way this country has been run. I can see the flaws.
I do not cry about my personal circumstances because I can take action to hedge against mistakes.

We all know our currency is being devalued . Stop whinging that your 50k or whatever savings you have are being inflated.

By retaining in cash you are deliberately, wilfully, and explicitly accepting a counterparty whose credibility you doubt.

You are no different than a sub prime investor.

If you don't like the monetary policy of your fiat issuer short them or move your cash to gold .

This forum is full of people who were banging on about their pile of savings this time last year and how they hated chopper and merv and how qe was destroying their savings.

Did any of you keep it in Gbp despite your knowledge? Then stop whinging! You took a gamble and now you blame someone else for a decision you knew was wrong!

If you had 100k for a 50 pc deposit this time last year and you had switched it to gold, ( with a bit of quanto ) you could now almost buy your house . One year to buy half a house? How much more of a ******in crash do you want?

If you didn't move to gold ( I didn't) then you chose the wrong currency to invest in, proably because you didn't want to ! Your choice, your outcome, not my fickin problem !


+100.

What's the point of spending hours on this site getting some useful information if you aren't going to make any use of it ?

#11 ThePiltdownMan

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:35 PM

demographics is the real clue to long term investment. and from what i can see we are going japanese. moreso in the rest of europe than here.



Don't think Japan had massive immigration like we have/are experiencing, and the immigrants they did have werent from religious/cultural backgrounds that encouraged mass breeding.

#12 Lagarde's Drift

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:38 PM

+100.

What's the point of spending hours on this site getting some useful information if you aren't going to make any use of it ?

To moan? ;)

#13 winkie

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:41 PM

+100.

What's the point of spending hours on this site getting some useful information if you aren't going to make any use of it ?



...I don't agree, most people are not gamblers they earn their money and pay their taxes and believe that their country will maintain the value and care for any spare cash savings they earn in a responsible manner......gambling in precious metal is not for everyone, anything can become a bubble....

tbh holding some yellow metal will not necessarily protect anyone....if they need to spend/sell/use it, it will be gone then they will then be none the wiser or richer. ;)

Edited by winkie, 04 February 2012 - 12:42 PM.

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#14 Lagarde's Drift

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:47 PM

...I don't agree, most people are not gamblers they earn their money and pay their taxes and believe that their country will maintain the value and care for any spare cash savings they earn in a responsible manner......gambling in precious metal is not for everyone, anything can become a bubble....

tbh holding some yellow metal will not necessarily protect anyone....if they need to spend/sell/use it, it will be gone then they will then be none the wiser or richer. ;)

And this is where I would link to that thread about death bed wishes, if I knew how.

Live the life of a sheeple if you want, with all the unfulfilled desires and ambitions, moan at the sky, the ground, the world if you want. Have a mid life crisis if you want. Die unhappy if you want.

If life has taught me anything so far, its that no one, and no government and no organisation gives two hoots about my life, it is completely up to me to make my own happiness. We live in a country with an unbelievable freedom of choice and mobility, I'd rather take advantage of the good things rather than complain about the bad ones.

#15 singlemalt

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:54 PM

This isn't just about house prices. It's about the future.

Democracy, truth, and justice are being discarded in order to save this ponzi scheme. In that respect, your claim that we're just moaning about not getting a house price crash doesn't give us the credit we deserve.


+1




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