Prices of stables perhaps, since the horsey events are in Greenwich.
What Would Cause A House Price Crash In London?
Posted 31 January 2012 - 01:36 AM
Greenwich dropped 2.3% last month. Newham 2.5% over the past year. You can get one bed flats for 70k in Woolwich. A dump for sure, but one in zone 4 that shows that that prices don't start in the hundreds of thousands.
Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:13 AM
Nowhere is immune to the laws of economics.
C London is roughly flat in prices yet the lowest rates in history, falling jobs and a falling €. They're not selling nearly as many as they say they are. Obvious.
Price follows volumes. Everywhere
oh i am sure yes; it's just that occasionally the laws of economics take a wee holiday off somewhere only to come back with a horn
Posted 31 January 2012 - 08:09 AM
Overseas cash buying in London relies on the "ripple effect" of residents to move further out to cheaper areas for it to impact on national prices. Once its all sold, that ripple effect will no longer happen. More then half of all Londoners rent already and the majority of new build flats and homes over £1 million are bought by overseas 'investors'.
Posted 31 January 2012 - 11:25 AM
HERE IN THE UK: THE UK SUB-PRIME CATASTROPHE - IT IS NOT ONLY IN AMERICA!! THE UK LIAR LOAN INDUSTRY - Source of FICTITIOUS "MONEY", and the principle driver of the House "Price" Pyramid/Ponzi Scam & Bubble, the "Credit Crunch" - and an unacknowledged major part of and cause of the ensuing Worldwide Financial Crash.
The following was reported in a superb documentary in late 2003 - This is now nearly 10 years ago!! Since then little has been done here in the UK to dig down deep on this vast elephant in the room: Why? If you're a serious journalist - here's your story - start investigating - it is the biggest financial scandal of all time:
THE ARTICLES BELOW ARE FROM AS FAR BACK AS 2003!!
Mortgage customers 'urged to lie' - All this was way back in 2003 by the way!!
Housebuyers are being encouraged to break the law in order to obtain huge mortgages, the BBC has discovered. Brokers, and even banking staff, have been telling buyers to lie about their incomes to get bigger and bigger loans. And these underhand tactics could also be the reason why house prices have gone on rising for so long.
CLICK HERE - http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/3222053.stm
"Could you believe that a bank would invite customers to defraud it? It may sound incredible, but that is what some of Britain's biggest mortgage lenders have in effect been doing."
CLICK HERE - http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/3478635.stm
The BBC Money Programme uncovers massive mortgage fraud [2003!]: BBC TWO's The Money Programme has revealed a huge mortgage fraud with brokers from some of Britain's biggest estate agents and financial advice groups advising customers to break the law and lie about their incomes to get massively bigger mortgages. And it shows how the illicit cash raised by this method has been pouring into the housing market, boosting prices and leaving many people risking financial ruin.
CLICK HERE http://www.bbc.co.uk..._mortgage.shtml
AND READ THIS: - http://www.housepric...howtopic=152508
WATCH THE VIDEO OF THE 2003/4 DOCUMENTARY HERE: - http://www.youtube.c...d&v=vT1UnGS91BY
Click on parts 2 & 3 as you go along watching this video.
AND WATCH THE LATEST VIDEO OF LIAR LOANS STILL IN ACTION HERE in 2008 - http://news.sky.com/.../20080641317257
Posted 31 January 2012 - 12:15 PM
Here's an anecdote for you:
I was in my gym in a posh(ish) part of NW London around Christmas and overheard a conversation between an American banker and his in-Laws.
He said he was about the only American ex-pat out of all his friends left in London. Said people were gradually finding 'other opportunities' and leaving, and that London would 'be a very different place in a couple of years time'.
Driving around St John's wood which is American Banker Shangri-La there are a TON of To Let and For Sale signs going up, so I dare say the exodus is real.
I think this is likely to have a much greater effect on house and rent prices than all these mysterious foreign buyers.
Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:57 PM
Yes, something very strange is happening in North East London in areas around RM1- Romford and a mile and a half further out. Hardly anything has sold for nearly two years, prices are being reduced at around 15k at a time. You can now get a lovely refurbished 5 bed for between 250k and 300k and prices are still falling, yet it is only 30 minutes on the tube or train from Central London.
What has interested me more though is this; a year ago my brother was looking for a 4bed to rent in the area, he could hardly find any, at the moment the number of houses available for rent is absolutely astonishing and yet there are very few takers. Properties remain available for months on end. I pondered about the reasons for this, it seems to be multiple. Owners unable to afford the mortgage payments are putting up their properties to rent since they cannot sell them. The rental requested is so high that cash strapped renters cannot afford them, added to by the change in housing benefit rules. Plus, this area has large numbers of public sector workers and self- employed running small businesses. Both of these groups are under pressure in terms of employment and work available.
Here is a classic recipe for stagnation, prices will have to fall considerably in the rental and for sale sector for anything to move. Distressed sales are already appearing and will accelerate in due course. This seems to me to be the pattern of future price decline in London. 'Normal' Londoners do not live in the areas bordering the Thames unless they are in social housing or on housing benefit. Ordinary working people with families move out.
Property above reduced by £17 000 yesterday. The corrective or crash will be slow and unobtrusive in various suburbs where ordinary Londers live and in which the overseas investors are not interested in.
Posted 31 January 2012 - 03:39 PM
Agreed the conditions for the crash are there but there is no driving force to progress the crash. Increasing IR and unemployment would drive the inevitable faster. Wage increases failing to keep up with inflation will take even longer to have an effect.
Posted 31 January 2012 - 03:44 PM
Meanwhile those running companies in London will struggle to find or pay for staff and the staff themselves will struggle to make it pay too.
What a mess.
This post has been edited by OnlyMe: 31 January 2012 - 03:50 PM
For those who wonder where this trend will lead, we offer a guess: The average American will be left with a shoeshine kit and instructions on how to say 'please' and 'thank you' in Chinese...."
Socialists want socialism for everyone else, but capitalism for themselves, while capitalists want capitalism for everyone else, but socialism for themselves.
Posted 31 January 2012 - 03:48 PM
This is a good point.....public service cuts also impact hard on private sector employment, there are many that rely on available public money, grants and consultancies for example.
Less can be more.
Posted 31 January 2012 - 04:43 PM
London has a couple of nice areas. A few nice but boring areas on the outer urbs.
The rest of it varies from scummy crap holes to Somalia by the Thames.
Still nicer than Reading and Bracknell.
A bit of a sweeping statement! Taking just the NW postcodes, I would say:
NW1 - A mixture of very nice (Regent's Park) and horrible (Camden)
NW2 - mostly horrible
NW3 - very nice
NW4 - ok but fairly dull suburbia
NW5 - mostly horrible
NW6 - equally divided into very nice and horrible, along the division of West End Lane.
NW7 - very nice, known as 'Londonshire' for its village feel
NW8 - very nice
NW9 - fairly dull and mildly grotty suburbia
NW10 - awful, here be dragons
NW11 - some very nice parts on the Hampstead borders and the garden suburb, the rest a bit bland unless you're Orthodox Jewish
So I don't think you can say London only has a 'couple of nice areas'!