[catmandu]

I often think we need a general thread for media headlines in Scotland - a single place to monitor the sentiment. So feel free to add any news articles to this thread in the future.

Many of you may have missed this - it was the front page headline on Boxing Day.

Quote

The number of first-time home-buyers in Scotland has fallen to the lowest level in more than 30 years despite an improvement in affordability, according to a report.

About 17,000 people bought their first house this year, 4% lower than last year and less than half the peak figure of 39,100 in 2006.

30-year low for first-time buyers

I don't really follow the first time buyer market so don't know if they really are becoming affordable. (I know they're getting cheaper in Edinburgh, but I imagine most still couldn't afford at current prices and deposit requirements).
I don't really see asking prices coming down further up the ladder though - slow drops on Property Bee, but new property still seems to come on at peak prices initially. I suppose the lack of FTBs has to feed through eventually though.

As an aside, there has clearly been a change in sentiment over the last months - I wonder if that will result in lots of properties coming on the market from new year - vendors finally realising that there is no point in "waiting for the market to improve". Hope so.

[ccc]

Reporting scotland mentioned the RICS report this morning at half 7 but gone by 8. They stated sales were expected to rise and people with high price expectations were holding the market back - also stated prices were expected to fall in 2012 and had been for last few months of 2011. Anyone still read the scotsman ? What are their stories like these days ? Dont bother their website is a mare to look at.

[Captain Cavey]

Scottish homes 'at most affordable' since 2002

We must be at the bottom: price falls and “an exceptionally low Bank of England Bank Rate over the foreseeable future” – time to fill yir Ghillie Brogues.

Has to be true: it's from the BBC !

[Scunnered]

Here's the Herald for a change.

Scots house price rises biggest in UK.

Quote

SCOTLAND experienced the biggest increase in house prices of anywhere in the UK during the past 10 years, a new survey has revealed.

Figures from the Bank of Scotland have shown £70,000 was added to the value of the average house between 2001 and 2011, meaning property prices more than doubled during the boom years.

While some value has dropped off the price of many homes after the housing bubble burst in 2007, the fall has been nowhere near as dramatic as the climb.

Recent estimates show prices have dropped by just 5% to 10% since the end of the boom five years ago.

However, Bank of Scotland analysts say that overall, house prices have soared by 111% since 2001, beating London's property hotspots where the increase was 88%.

The survey also found the number of houses in private hands rose almost one-fifth as people took advantage of easily available credit in the years it was available.

...

Estate agents have welcomed the news that the value of Scotland's housing stock is now on a par with much of the rest of the UK, as it had historically lagged behind many other areas.

Andrew Smith, partner in Strutt & Parker's Edinburgh office, said: "It is good for market confidence to hear the value of housing in Scotland has risen.

"In addition, housing prices in Scotland 10 years ago were substantially lower than London and the South-East of England.

"It can only be good news that the value of Scotland's housing stock has risen so substantially and these figures illustrate the importance of taking a long-term view on the property market rather than short-term speculation. Over the past 25 years, to look back further, property has proven to be a fantastic long-term investment."

...

I'm not entirely convinced by the "good news" quote.

This post has been edited by Scunnered: 11 February 2012 - 06:23 PM

[catmandu]

Homebuyers 'still offering less' than asking price
S1homes/BBC article.
Quick Summary: House prices lower and heading down.

This post has been edited by catmandu: 13 February 2012 - 09:26 PM

[Captain Cavey]

From the Herald

Quote

Optimism as house sales show an increase

HOUSE sales rose slightly last month as a higher number of first-time buyers looked to make purchases before the end of a duty concession, according to a report.

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Scotland said the looming end to the current stamp duty holiday partly lay behind a small increase in newly agreed sales in January.

From March 24, first-time buyers purchasing homes worth between £125,000 and £250,000 will no longer be exempt from paying the 1% duty.

However, despite the findings, Scottish sur-veyors said they did not expect the withdrawal of the two-year duty amnesty to create a huge rush from buyers.

The details were contained in RICS's latest UK housing market survey.

In other findings, surveyors recorded a steady increase in the number of new buyer enquiries in January and reported prices and sales are expected to remain steady going into spring.

In addition, the number of surveyors who reported homes were coming on the market rose to its highest level since April last year, which RICS said suggested sellers were feeling more con-fident about the housing market.

RICS Scotland director Sarah Speirs said: "The good news is that sellers are returning to the market after the usual end-of-year break and surveyors in Scotland expect house prices to remain fairly steady.

Ok - Headline has "House" and "increase" in the title - that should boost confidence. Can't get onto the RICS site to see what the actual increase was.

...also – the RICS interpretation of sellers confidence by the increase in homes coming onto the market could have another interpretation that does not include “confidence” . Desperation perhaps?

Furthermore, why is “confident” spelt “con-fident” :- perhaps a clue to what this article is all about?

[catmandu]

Here's a great quote from one of the surveyors in the Scottish section of the RICS report:

"General depression in the market" (p10)

It must be said though, that there is a fairly mixed picture when you read the other surveyors quotes.

[catmandu]

Fall in Scottish Mortgage Lending

Quote

The number of mortgages taken out in Scotland last year fell by 7% but remortgaging rose sharply, according to data from mortgage lenders.

A total of 44,500 mortgages were secured in 2011, while remortgaging increased by 18% to 36,900 loans.

In the final quarter of last year, a total of 11,700 loans worth almost £1.4bn were taken out - down 8% by volume and value on the third quarter.

The UK as a whole fared slightly better than Scotland, with a 5% volume fall.

Data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) Scotland also showed the average first-time buyer in Scotland spent 11.1% of their income on mortgage interest payments in the last quarter of 2011 - lower than anywhere else in the UK.

The number of first-time buyers fell by 4% in the final quarter to 4,500. This figure was up from 4,200 in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Over 2011 as a whole, Scotland accounted for 9% of the total UK house purchase market and 10% of all UK remortgaging.
'Challenging year'

Jim Dunn, chair of CML Scotland, said: "Scotland, as well as the rest of the UK, continues to see a constrained mortgage market.

"However, it is encouraging to see positive signs, such as better affordability for first-time buyers and a decrease in average deposits for home movers, emerging.

"2012 will still be a challenging year but we hope to see the slight easing of constraints continuing throughout the year."

Mark Dyason, from independent mortgage broker Edinburgh Mortgage Advice, said the growth in the number of remortgages last year was down to competitive fixed and tracker rates coming on to the market.

He added: "We are already seeing rates tick upwards, in no small part due to the ongoing problems in the eurozone.

"Lenders are becoming more nervous by the day and this is feeding through into mortgage rates.

"Compared to this time last year, there is more demand for mortgages but the landscape remains fragmented.

5% drop in UK overall (which I'm pretty sure conflicts with some other recently released data showing an increase. Perhaps it's caused by the surveys being number of mortgages vs amount lent out.
Anyway, a 7% drop in mortgage levels in Scotland - surely the year before was also a pitiful number of mortgages meaning that no one is moving. No good news for property bulls here!

[ccc]

RICS today on reporting scotland was fairly bearish - however they did manage to leave out the fact that most members expect prices to fall in next 3 months - they managed to mention it on ceefax and online. Amazing after almost 5 years some in the media [far less than before] still just cant bare to face up to it - ah well - who cares - its happening whether they like it or not

[abroad]

http://www.scotsman....hird_1_2152387#

House sales up a third..... ....really

Sales driven by price drops, several paragraphs later, house prices rose by the highest amount since 2008...more affordability spurring the market...several paragraphs later.....RBS raise interest rates to 4% due to costs of borrowing...

This post has been edited by abroad: 15 March 2012 - 04:30 PM

[ccc]

abroad, on 15 March 2012 - 04:20 PM, said:

http://www.scotsman....hird_1_2152387#

House sales up a third..... ....really

Sales driven by price drops, several paragraphs later, house prices rose by the highest amount since 2008...more affordability spurring the market...several paragraphs later.....RBS raise interest rates to 4% due to costs of borrowing...

"Typical first-time buyer flats – in areas such as Gorgie and Leith – which were on sale for around £130,000 can now be had for around £100,000.”

Come on Dave - we know these can be had for 80-90k no problem.

Still - good to hear people are finally starting to realise that they can't sell their place for 2007 prices anymore. Best for all concerned.

[catmandu]

Sharp fall in the construction of new housing in Scotland

There's only one solution....and we all know what it is....
That's right, we need the taxpayer to subsidise the poor building companies.

A friend expressed serious interest in a new build circa 350k...and was told there were no discounts.
Little wonder why they are not selling.

[Scunnered]

Purely for the headline...

Scotsman: House building at its lowest hereggggg.

This post has been edited by Scunnered: 17 March 2012 - 11:28 AM

[catmandu]

Front page of Herald today.

Household debt fears as mortgage rates rise

[Scunnered]

Scotsman: Revealed: Scotland’s costliest neighbourhood is Aberdeen suburb

http://www.scotsman....uburb-1-2369080

The usual kind of article about Scotland's most expensive areas, but

Quote

The list placed two locations in East Lothian in second and third place respectively. Humbie, near Haddington, had an average house price of £388,076, while North Berwick had an average property value of £313,556

Humbie? Really?