[expatowner]

Charlie The Tramp, on Oct 13 2005, 07:51 AM, said:

Humphrys gives Brown a run for his money

Is Broon still in charge?

[robbingXpat]

brainclamp, on Oct 13 2005, 10:23 PM, said:

Some geezer won the nobel prize explaining what causes the business cycle.
It seems to be based on innovation, and the start of the business cycle occurs after recession seems to be based on businesses catching onto the greater profits from knocked down assets, cheaper labour , cheaper land, even though money is often more expensive, with this innovation having the 'fertile soil' to catch on as costs drop and business investment grows rapidly.

For instance, when Robert Stevenson demostrated the steam powered rocket, in 1829 in Rainhill, Liverpool as part of a competition held by the Liverpool to Manchester Railway company, what followed was a railway boom changing the face of the economy forever. Transport costs dropped and many goods and foods became available for the first time. The standard fo living shot up in a decade. Huge 'landlord' economies which depended on lots of ever cheaper labour to produce, like Russia, or even China/India found thier share of world markets collapsed as a vast array of value added goods hit world markets partly due to this infrastructure innovation creating other innnovations in the UK.

The Railway boom lasted from 1830 to 1840 before collapsing because of a financial crisis, a run on the pound and too many small railways. A uncontrolled, chaotic expansion of credit in the US and printed currency in the UK creates a major crisis in the terms of trade and banking. The crisis leads to a depression in the economy which lasts until 1843 as the damage is unwound in both countries by shutting down the money supply.

However, In 1844 cheap money was available for knocked down assets: the lending rate had been cut to 3¼%. Also, the 1844 Bank Charter Act created stability and confidence in the pound.
The result was a great deal of wild speculation on railway construction!

http://www.historyho...ys/railways.htm

Here then are two business cycles. A recession was needed in the industry so that all the smaller railway lines and assets could be bought at knockdown prices cheaply with 'free money' and then consolodated into one functioning mainline system. At one stage 33% of the railway was owned by one stock speculator.

I hope this illuminates what a business cycle is all about - its all about investment.

Now Meryvn King expects business investment to pick up where the consumer left off. I don't think we quite have the right climate somehow.

Does this sound familiar? And crash Gordon's major is in HISTORY, obviously got no knowledge of economics!

[Home_To_Roost]

Charlie The Tramp, on Oct 13 2005, 09:11 AM, said:

Humphrys: Economy relying on consumer spending, fuelled by debt, and high house prices.

He was right! I began to wake up to the UK's debt-fuelled economy in 2006, long before I joined HPC!

This post has been edited by Home_To_Roost: 25 February 2009 - 03:54 PM

[expatowner]

Property Dreamer, on Oct 13 2005, 09:43 AM, said:

You have to ask yourself what is the point in bothering to listen to a politician like Chemical Crash Gordon. He spins and twists his statistics like a fish on a line. Every statement is qualified, every direct question avoided and a completely different question is 'half' answered instead using open ended statistics. 37% of me found the broadcast interesting, 40% of me found it amusing but 20% of me was getting very angry. Worryingly 3% of me wanted to spread chum over his fat naked carcas and dangle him over a pit filled with hungry, narrow-minded Australian crocodiles which had been forced to listen to a tape of his speeches for a month.

Oh if only you had done this back in 2005 the UK might be in a whole better situation than it finds itself today.