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What's The Position Of The Aberdeen Market?


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#16 rookie

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Posted 05 October 2011 - 07:36 AM

Stop talking shite.



Ok doom mongerer

Point out the bits that are "shite"

#17 sandster

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Posted 05 October 2011 - 10:30 AM

Ok doom mongerer

Point out the bits that are "shite"


Exactly the oil and gas sector is the busiest I've seen it in my 10 years up here. Dive Support Vessels are booked solid for the next 12 months.

#18 cashinmattress

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Posted 05 October 2011 - 02:26 PM

Yes, this city has fared well so far in this 'credit crisis'. But, the property market here hit the ceiling at the peak of the credit boom and has been rolling along that plateau ever since, primarily for the 'nice' housing in the West end and that out in the Shire. What in your mind will keep the prices static, or create an upsurge?

North Sea gas production falls 25%

UK oil output sees record fall

Does that kind of news bring things into perspective about the future of the city?

It's a very hard sell to shareholders to maintain a mostly obsolete fleet of platforms and infrastructure when you have Libya and other markets coming on line, especially when you see the margins. Oil has to remain very high in order for that to happen, but that's not good for anyone, especially those living in cold climates such as Scotland.

Nuff said, and I bow out of this thread.

If you want a circular argument, just look the the old threads with Hamish McTavish in regards to AB.

#19 rookie

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Posted 05 October 2011 - 02:41 PM

Yes, this city has fared well so far in this 'credit crisis'. But, the property market here hit the ceiling at the peak of the credit boom and has been rolling along that plateau ever since, primarily for the 'nice' housing in the West end and that out in the Shire. What in your mind will keep the prices static, or create an upsurge?

North Sea gas production falls 25%

UK oil output sees record fall

Does that kind of news bring things into perspective about the future of the city?

It's a very hard sell to shareholders to maintain a mostly obsolete fleet of platforms and infrastructure when you have Libya and other markets coming on line, especially when you see the margins. Oil has to remain very high in order for that to happen, but that's not good for anyone, especially those living in cold climates such as Scotland.

Nuff said, and I bow out of this thread.

If you want a circular argument, just look the the old threads with Hamish McTavish in regards to AB.



Stop talking shite

#20 sandster

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Posted 06 October 2011 - 09:42 AM

Yes, this city has fared well so far in this 'credit crisis'. But, the property market here hit the ceiling at the peak of the credit boom and has been rolling along that plateau ever since, primarily for the 'nice' housing in the West end and that out in the Shire. What in your mind will keep the prices static, or create an upsurge?

North Sea gas production falls 25%

UK oil output sees record fall

Does that kind of news bring things into perspective about the future of the city?

It's a very hard sell to shareholders to maintain a mostly obsolete fleet of platforms and infrastructure when you have Libya and other markets coming on line, especially when you see the margins. Oil has to remain very high in order for that to happen, but that's not good for anyone, especially those living in cold climates such as Scotland.

Nuff said, and I bow out of this thread.

If you want a circular argument, just look the the old threads with Hamish McTavish in regards to AB.


I agree with what you're saying, what you don't seem to realise is just how much work in places like North & West Africa and the Middle East is operated from Aberdeen.

#21 ccc

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Posted 07 October 2011 - 01:41 PM

I agree with what you're saying, what you don't seem to realise is just how much work in places like North & West Africa and the Middle East is operated from Aberdeen.


I know nothing about this field but the above interests me.

Whilst this may be true at present - surely this will gradually just shift away from Aberdeen until there is very little left ? Sure it will take a long period of time - however these companies will not all just stay there for the sake of it. One will decide to re-locate then the next then it is all over. Just a question of time really.

Things move and times change. I see no reason why Aberdeen would be any different ? May as well make hay whilst the sun shines though. :D
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#22 rookie

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 11:12 AM

I know nothing about this field but the above interests me.

Whilst this may be true at present - surely this will gradually just shift away from Aberdeen until there is very little left ? Sure it will take a long period of time - however these companies will not all just stay there for the sake of it. One will decide to re-locate then the next then it is all over. Just a question of time really.

Things move and times change. I see no reason why Aberdeen would be any different ? May as well make hay whilst the sun shines though. :D




The Companies will not just move away from Aberdeen for the sake of it either

Why would the companies move out of Aberdeen when its the global centre of offshore engineering, and the majority of world class offshore Construction/Diving vessels are all managed from Aberdeen?

BP opened their new 50m HQ in Aberdeen in the last few years, an investment like that isnt made lightly, all main oil companies have had a presence in aberdeen for the last 25 years, cant see that coming to an end anytime soon, why would it? Why unsettle a very settled workforce? when the North Sea oil/gas runs out the workforce shall continue working on overseas jobs, just as they are at present, major offshore construction jobs being managed from Aberdeen offices.

All the infrastructure needs to be decommissioned from the North sea, easy 20 years of decommissioning work

Before the decommissioning work kicks off in a major way, theres plenty of new finds thatll keep Aberdeen ticking over nicely:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15255566


Not a word of shite, Aberdeen is booming, and its all down to the Oil

#23 ccc

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Posted 11 October 2011 - 02:01 PM

The Companies will not just move away from Aberdeen for the sake of it either

Why would the companies move out of Aberdeen when its the global centre of offshore engineering, and the majority of world class offshore Construction/Diving vessels are all managed from Aberdeen?

BP opened their new 50m HQ in Aberdeen in the last few years, an investment like that isnt made lightly, all main oil companies have had a presence in aberdeen for the last 25 years, cant see that coming to an end anytime soon, why would it? Why unsettle a very settled workforce? when the North Sea oil/gas runs out the workforce shall continue working on overseas jobs, just as they are at present, major offshore construction jobs being managed from Aberdeen offices.

All the infrastructure needs to be decommissioned from the North sea, easy 20 years of decommissioning work

Before the decommissioning work kicks off in a major way, theres plenty of new finds thatll keep Aberdeen ticking over nicely:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-15255566


Not a word of shite, Aberdeen is booming, and its all down to the Oil


Why would it ? Because this happens in various industries. There are a multitude of examples worldwide. And the building of a new headquarters does not really tell everything. They will go where it makes sense to go. Just now that may be Aberdeen - in 5 years it may be somewhere completely different.

As you say - looks like there should be work for a good time to come - however it could be far shorter than you think. People in many industries around the World have had thoughts exactly as you have - and in a few years been sorely disappointed.

That is all I am saying.
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#24 Torryloonmadegood

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Posted 13 October 2011 - 12:34 PM

Got to agree with Rookie, the industry is buzzing at the moment back to the 2007 peak wrt day rates etc

I'd have thought the chancellors tax grab would have had an impact but it looks like only the companies with old platforms in tail end production have been affected to any meaningful degree.

There are a significant number of new project teams being established, 2012 into 2013 will certainly be busy, work for 2014 is being bid at the moment.

Rookies point that Aberdeen is somewhat insulated on the back of the oil industry is correct at the top end of the west end granite market however there is an over supply of city centre flats for sale which is effectively creating two markets.

Sansters point is also correct, there are numerous Aberdeen HQ's Operators managing production in Africa and SE Asia. The contractors based here are also global, oil tends to be found in less than family orientated areas, you're not going to set up your HQ in Angola when the concentration of experienced engineers is in Aberdeen.

Aberdeen will certainly be busy for the next few years, beyond who knows ? But decommissioning will be a lengthy process, a guaranteed money spinner which in my opinion will see a lot of recent graduates through to retirement. Its taking up to 5 times as long to remove infrastructure than it took to put in !

#25 Democorruptcy

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Posted 13 October 2011 - 02:21 PM

Booming oil industry?

A major investment in the UK's North Sea oil industry that will secure production for decades to come for troubled BP has been approved by the Government.

It means BP and its partners in the Clair Ridge field, west of the Shetlands, can proceed with the second phase of their development to install two bridge-linked platforms at a cost of 4.5bn.

It will take total investment in the field to 10bn, with BP contributing 4.5bn of that alongside Shell (LSE: RDSB.L - news) , ConocoPhillips (EUREX: COPF.EX - news) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX - news) .

BP says that when you combine its four North Sea projects, over half of the investment will be spent in the UK and they will create 3,000 UK oil and gas supply chain jobs and support a further 3,500.

Announcing the Government's decision to approve the second phase, Prime Minister David Cameron said: "This... is great news for Aberdeen and the country and provides a massive boost for jobs and growth."

There has been a renewed focus on North Sea oil for BP since the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in April last year and its failed bid to tap the Arctic with Russia's state-owned Rosneft.

BP's chief executive Bob Dudley said: "After some years of decline, we now see the potential to maintain our production from the North Sea at around 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day until 2030."

BP says the wider Clair Ridge field has now become the UK's largest hydrocarbon resource and it is planning to extend its operation in the south west of the site after a "significant" find in an appraisal well.

Earlier this year, BP and its partners announced plans for the 3bn redevelopment of the Schiehallion and Loyal fields, west of Shetland, and the 700m development of the Kinnoull field in the central North Sea.

http://uk.finance.ya...3502487380.html


Then there was the disposable income one

People in Aberdeen have seen their disposable income grow faster than anywhere in the UK in recent years thanks to the city's oil industry, a study shows.

After they've covered essentials like taxes, bills, mortgage payment or rent, the average Aberdonian household had 17,039 left over in 2009 - the most recent year for which full data could be obtained.
This was a rise of nearly 25% in just five years, according to accounting group UHY Hacker Young, and was due to persistently high oil prices and investment in North Sea production.

http://news.sky.com/...rticle/16086149


Democorruptcy
If you say "Democorruptcy" quickly, it sounds a bit like "Democracy". In a "Democracy" people vote for politicians who represent their interests. In the UK's "Democorruptcy" people can only vote for expense fiddling thieving MPs who are in the hip pocket of big business and the finance sector.

Governbankment
A "Governbankment" is a Government that has no line between itself and it's banks. The UK's Governbankment does policies to enrich bankers at the expense of the public. The more money people are encouraged to borrow, the more money bankers make.

The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is stealing from savers to make them pay for crimes by bankers. Via lower interest on savings, all the bank fines for PPI, LIBOR and interest rates swaps are now being paid by savers so that bankers can keep pocketing bonuses.

"We need to make a really big change: from an economy built on debt to an economy built on savings" - David Camoron Jan 2009
"Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed" - George Osborne Jan 2009
- So what do Camoron & Osborne do? Print money and leave interest rates at 0.5% when inflation is over 5%

If it is asserted that civilization is a real advance in the condition of man -- and I think that it is, though only the wise improve their advantages -- it must be shown that it has produced better dwellings without making them more costly; and the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
http://classiclit.ab...en-Part-2_4.htm

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#26 ccc

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Posted 13 October 2011 - 03:14 PM

you're not going to set up your HQ in Angola when the concentration of experienced engineers is in Aberdeen.


So they have always been in Aberdeen ? No - they were somewhere else before that. ;)

Just wise to remember that in the longer term.

Certainly seems like there is a lot of work in the near future though.
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#27 Torryloonmadegood

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Posted 13 October 2011 - 04:05 PM

Hi,

My last employer was based in Aberdeen but 75% of their production was in West Africa likewise 60% of my current employers production is outwith the North Sea.

I take the point about the industry being based elsewhere before Aberdeen but to be honest the contractors, who employ the largest proportion of the industry have been through so much consolidation in recent years that the regional players of old no longer really exist.

Rates in Aberdeen are being pushed upwards by global not specifically North Sea demand. Aberdeen companies are competing for staff on a global basis.

In the subsea installation sector, there are now essentially two global players both Aberdeen based. There remain a number of regional players but the big two service over 70% of the global market maybe more now with the merger of Technip and Global Industries a couple of weeks ago. The North Sea is still a significant revenue stream for these companies but the majority of the turn over and the overwhelming majority of the profit is derived overseas so even if the North Sea closed tomorrow they would remain. The skill pool is here and skilled hands in short supply.

Without wishing to sound arrogant just to illustrate the point, today, out of the 4 e-mails from agents 3 were for overseas positions.

#28 Key Stakeholder

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Posted 17 October 2011 - 01:43 PM

http://www.newscient...kets-maybe.html

After the dot-com bubble and the property bubble, prepare for the carbon bubble. Entrepreneurs meeting in the Maldives last week warned that shaky assumptions about future fossil-fuel use are buoying financial markets and that the collapse of this "carbon bubble" could trigger another crash one day.

"There is this suicidal river of capital flowing into fossil fuels," says Jeremy Leggett, a green entrepreneur and head of solar power company Solarcentury, based in London. "Let's get the risk acknowledged."



#29 Torryloonmadegood

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Posted 18 October 2011 - 09:04 AM

Interesting analysis, unbiased ? Selling solar energy..........

The fundemental problem with all renewables is that they are, currently at least, utterly uneconomic in comparison to hydrocarbons without massive subsidy. How much would oil have to be to reach a break even point....200, 300, 400, 500 USD ?

The governments commitment to renewables costs a fortune, well, wastes a fortune in my opinion. I worked on a project that had a capital repayment of 80 years, yep a human life time just to repay the CAPEX, if the wind was steady and always at the optimal strength....given the towers and turbines only had a 25 year design life they would never have been installed on a "normal" commercial basis.

However, renewables keeps lots of engineers busy in Aberdeen through on the same day-rates as oil and gas so no real complaints other than our tax wasted.

#30 Key Stakeholder

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Posted 21 October 2011 - 02:35 PM

Interesting analysis, unbiased ? Selling solar energy..........

The fundemental problem with all renewables is that they are, currently at least, utterly uneconomic in comparison to hydrocarbons without massive subsidy. How much would oil have to be to reach a break even point....200, 300, 400, 500 USD ?

The governments commitment to renewables costs a fortune, well, wastes a fortune in my opinion. I worked on a project that had a capital repayment of 80 years, yep a human life time just to repay the CAPEX, if the wind was steady and always at the optimal strength....given the towers and turbines only had a 25 year design life they would never have been installed on a "normal" commercial basis.

However, renewables keeps lots of engineers busy in Aberdeen through on the same day-rates as oil and gas so no real complaints other than our tax wasted.


Oh, I see. You discount the cost of damage done to the atmosphere, then?




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