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Its Been Done Many Times Before, But What The Hell


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#1 Roman Roady

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 09:28 AM

To the old timers on here these are old hat and have been read and commented on several times before.

However I cannot think of a better time for Newbies and visitors to read the two best posts I have ever read on HPC

fofp starts off the thread below with an incitfull and chilling post dated just after the start of the credit crunch

http://www.housepric...showtopic=53593


The next one is older and you will need to go to page 2 to read the first of the posts by Serpico....this and his later posts will take longer to read but again it provided an insight into what I believe is coming to many more businesses.

http://www.housepric...pic=35126&st=15

Happy reading....enjoy the fun tomorrow.
If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.

#2 Errol

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 10:04 AM

What about CGNAO's contribution?

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#3 200p

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 10:12 AM

CGNAO was not HPC mainstream.

If you take HPC as 1% of the UK population. CGNAO was 1% of that. The thin edge of the wedge.

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#4 Roman Roady

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 10:50 AM

He's contained!

As for his contribution....over average I would say he was the most impressive. I miss his posts.

But these two were the best.

When you consider the timing, fofp was inspired. I hope he is reaping the rewards of his wisdom now.
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#5 Venger

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 02:24 PM

The next one is older and you will need to go to page 2 to read the first of the posts by Serpico....this and his later posts will take longer to read but again it provided an insight into what I believe is coming to many more businesses.

http://www.housepric...pic=35126&st=15

Happy reading....enjoy the fun tomorrow.


If anyone deserved it, Serpico did. I hope what's coming does exactly what it did to Serpico, to people who acted in the way he did during the boom.

Whilst the 2 guys who bought his business assets at 95% under previous valuation from the bank might have also been stupid as the recession deepened, the premises eventually will have fallen to someone else to make a go of it. Anyone can spend boom money freely on 2 top of the range brand new cars every year, expand to 3 showrooms. Have your own personal airplane. Own and maintain top horses. Live in staff. Faboulous holidays every year.

Serpico complains as though he was hard done by, when actually he could have been safe and secure, and lists the above as though it was his right.

Serpico wasn't complaining when he bought the big house cheap from HMRC who'd seized it from some other boom business man in the previous bust. He should have learnt his lesson at that moment. Don't over-reach. I'm glad the young hard working neurosurgeon bought Serpico's house cheap too in the recession.

#6 RJG18

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 02:31 PM

Can we vote for ourselves? ;)

This is one of my early posts from 2004. (some of the characters seem to have got messed up at some point over the years).

http://www.housepric...?showtopic=3261

It just goes to show how wrong people were when they say that "No-one saw it coming", when clearly we were here 7 or 8 years ago explaining in detail exactly what was going to happen.

#7 Oliver Sutton

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 02:39 PM

Can we vote for ourselves? ;)

This is one of my early posts from 2004. (some of the characters seem to have got messed up at some point over the years).

http://www.housepric...?showtopic=3261

It just goes to show how wrong people were when they say that "No-one saw it coming", when clearly we were here 7 or 8 years ago explaining in detail exactly what was going to happen.


Hmm....

Written in 2004.


Based on this, the average property should be expected to fall in excess of 50% from it's current pricing levels over the next two to three years.



As opposed to rising by 30% ?

#8 winkie

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 02:45 PM

Can we vote for ourselves? ;)

This is one of my early posts from 2004. (some of the characters seem to have got messed up at some point over the years).

http://www.housepric...?showtopic=3261

It just goes to show how wrong people were when they say that "No-one saw it coming", when clearly we were here 7 or 8 years ago explaining in detail exactly what was going to happen.



Good thread....one of the best, and some of the best old posters.....wonder where they are and what they are thinking now? ;)
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#9 winkie

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 02:49 PM

Hmm....

Written in 2004.


As opposed to rising by 30% ?



They call that interest rate and free money manipulation....we now have 0.5% interest rates imagine if the rate was still 3.75% today....and easy credit had not become even easier. ;)
What you don't owe won't worry you.

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#10 RJG18

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 03:02 PM

Hmm....

Written in 2004.


"Based on this, the average property should be expected to fall in excess of 50% from it's current pricing levels over the next two to three years."



As opposed to rising by 30% ?


By 2004 the bubble had been running since about 2000/2001. A prediction that it would come to an end by 2007, wasn't too far off, as (if you recall) in 2007/2008 everyhting started failing... we had bank failures in 2008 (Lemans, RBS, HBOS, Northern Rock), quantitive easing, country failures (Iceland), 0% interest rates on savings, etc, etc....... HOWEVER, what I never imaged was that from that point onwards Government, Banks, etc would throw everything they could a propping up the economic system that had been brought down by the credit bubble, at the cost of a MUCH bigger failure in future. I (and I'm sure no-one else on here at the time) thought it would ever get to this stage, where it is now likely that we will see complete currency failures (Euro, followed probably by Sterling and the US Dollar - as least in their present forms), likely failure of the whole western fiat currency experiment, state default by the USA and European countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy.... followed by Britain and others), and ultimately, in a few years (IMHO) a state of world war once this has all played out. Sorry to be so gloomy about it all. :(

#11 Roman Roady

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 03:27 PM

If anyone deserved it, Serpico did. I hope what's coming does exactly what it did to Serpico, to people who acted in the way he did during the boom.

Whilst the 2 guys who bought his business assets at 95% under previous valuation from the bank might have also been stupid as the recession deepened, the premises eventually will have fallen to someone else to make a go of it. Anyone can spend boom money freely on 2 top of the range brand new cars every year, expand to 3 showrooms. Have your own personal airplane. Own and maintain top horses. Live in staff. Faboulous holidays every year.

Serpico complains as though he was hard done by, when actually he could have been safe and secure, and lists the above as though it was his right.

Serpico wasn't complaining when he bought the big house cheap from HMRC who'd seized it from some other boom business man in the previous bust. He should have learnt his lesson at that moment. Don't over-reach. I'm glad the young hard working neurosurgeon bought Serpico's house cheap too in the recession.

I dont think anyone was really concerned about whether he was right or wrong in the things that happened to him. It is just a well written post giving a personal insight into what it is like to be at the forefront of a deep recession.
If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.

#12 mfp123

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 03:41 PM

To the old timers on here these are old hat and have been read and commented on several times before.

However I cannot think of a better time for Newbies and visitors to read the two best posts I have ever read on HPC

fofp starts off the thread below with an incitfull and chilling post dated just after the start of the credit crunch

http://www.housepric...showtopic=53593


The next one is older and you will need to go to page 2 to read the first of the posts by Serpico....this and his later posts will take longer to read but again it provided an insight into what I believe is coming to many more businesses.

http://www.housepric...pic=35126&st=15

Happy reading....enjoy the fun tomorrow.


i dont think it actually adds any new substance, other than state that people have borrowed too much.

in summary it simply says people who have borrowed money will need to pay it back. people will spend less. printing money causes inflation.

having read such a long winded post, i mean that basically covers it all in 3 sentances.

Edited by mfp123, 07 August 2011 - 03:44 PM.


#13 Roman Roady

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 03:48 PM

i dont think it actually adds any new substance, other than state that people have borrowed too much.

in summary it simply says people who have borrowed money will need to pay it back. people will spend less. printing money causes inflation.

having read such a long winded post, i mean that basically covers it all in 3 sentances.

You are entitled to your opinion.

Personally, I think the posts say much more than that, but thats just me ;)
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#14 winkie

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Posted 07 August 2011 - 04:01 PM

Sometimes I feel HPC is too based around links to daily mail articles, or is too aggressive to alternative viewpoints. GEI contains some great mathsy/technical discussion as well, which I like. Both are important. But as is the case with most forums - the best posts are ignored until it's too late.



People tend to ignore what they prefer not to happen.....it is only after the event it becomes apparent. ;)
What you don't owe won't worry you.

Less can be more.




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