[warpig]

A contrarian's contrarian is not a contrarian.

The Masked Tulip, on 16 May 2012 - 07:04 PM, said:

Ah, but the contrarian would argue this is an indicator to get out of gold. Bit like Brown flogging the UK gold in reverse?

[JohnLennon]

Would any of the bears like to explain why fiat currency is in any way superior to gold/ other commodities in the long term?

If not please STFU, as saying gold is in a bubble because it is fvcking high, is like saying that National debt is in a bubble because it is also fvcking high.

National debt is high and cannot be repaid so is being and will continue to be inflated away via fiat expansion.

Doesn't it strike you as a bit weird that we are four years into a fvkcing depression and yet RPI Inflation is in the region 5-6%??? Duh!

Factor in all the other sh1tty UK problems of rising benefits, EU cash drain, pensions, elderly population, peak oil and more Layabout governments and you will see the case for gold (as a store of value at the very least) is a pretty bloody strong one.

This post has been edited by JohnLennon: 16 May 2012 - 08:09 PM

[roman holiday]

Georgia O, on 16 May 2012 - 11:57 AM, said:

We have govts, govts set taxes, create scarcity, redistribute, it is their entire existence, they only exist to manipulate, everything they do is a manipulation. As such theres no such thing as unmanipulated markets that have ever been outside govt interference via legislation on anything at any time, every tax ever created is a manipulation of the market, having an effect on every market there is even if that market isnt directly being taxed or given a tax subsidy. Prices move up and down as buyers and sellers congregate on one side for whatever reason, who knew, bitching about the price not doing what you want being down to something ever present and ever influencing in a market is comedy, the behaviour of loons which is why theres never screams of conspiracy and manipulation when the market happens to go in the direction said person wants it to, naturally thats just down to smarts and talent.

Gold is going down because for whatever reason there is more selling pressure than buying pressure, it goes up when there is more buying pressure than selling pressure, its that simple, as to the motivations of millions of investors across the world buying or selling it, it could be for any reason including getting out of the wrong side of bed, the only truth out there is the actual price, the rest is speculation and everyone imposes their own bias on this to suit what they want

Too true. Markets have to be accepted for what they are.... until governments decide to regulate them. If we want to play, no point for us individuals moaning about what they should be [or price should be]. Got to accept the conditions as they are rather than wail about what 'ought' to be. A little like life really.

[roman holiday]

The Masked Tulip, on 16 May 2012 - 06:50 PM, said:

I don't think even RB can save gold and silver from going down. The silver charts are almost hypnotic to watch at the moment.

The gold and silver forums, and associated blogs, have been a fascinating insight into human groupthink - people reassuring themselves that gold and silver is still about to surge. Buy gold, buy silver, bury it in your back yard, buy miners. It is fascinating reading posts from people who have lost an awful lot of money in recent days and weeks but who are still determined that they are right.

They make us lot look sane.

What is it - mid June for the next Greek election? What on earth is going to happen to shares and PMs between now and then? Fascinating.

Well as they say, you want to buy when there is blood in the streets.

[The Masked Tulip]

roman holiday, on 16 May 2012 - 09:17 PM, said:

Well as they say, you want to buy when there is blood in the streets.

Which is what we are seeing in Greece - only a London bus ride and Cliff Richard Summer Holiday away.

[warpig]

[DTMark]

Some good stuff there, thanks. In the meantime and especially for the 'goldbugs', here's a picture of the two books on my desk at the moment.

[DTMark]

Maybe not the most incisive reporting...

http://www.telegraph...ear-market.html

A highlight for me (my italics)

Quote

"Gold is just another risk asset," said Michael Aronstein, the president of New York-based Marketfield Asset Management. "It made you a lot of money if you took the risk eight or 10 years ago.

"A real safe haven would be a pile of high-denomination Swiss franc or dollar notes, stored in a safety deposit box," he told Bloomberg.

Next para:

Quote

Others forecast that gold will climb once more, predicting that a further escalation in the eurozone debt crisis will send people flocking towards the metal again. In addition, if the US Federal Reserve resumes quantitative easing - its money-printing efforts - this would likely boost demand for gold, as people seek a refuge from inflation.

That pile of dollar notes stored in a safety deposit box doesn't sound like such a great idea to me. The more I look at this (the plunging gold price) the less sense it makes. And that's well before the ECB finally print the few trillion Euros that are needed.

[warpig]

I got my crayons out and posted this a couple of weeks ago. It seemed fairly obvious that the PM market would be hit by concentrated short selling at `the critical juncture.` They had to or it was going to break out to the upside and challenge the previous high. A rising gold price signals weakness and mistrust in a [currency|economy], they had a tactical reason not to let this happen. This hints we are much closer to the Keynesian end point than most economists would care to admit. It doesn't change anything, it just delays the inevitable IMO.

DTMark, on 17 May 2012 - 12:43 AM, said:

The more I look at this (the plunging gold price) the less sense it makes. And that's well before the ECB finally print the few trillion Euros that are needed.

[Sir Harold m]

Stick to the fundamentals Bud.

Gold will appreciate in the medium to long term because it is the only currency in the works that is paying anywhere close to positive yields.(hard currency that is)

The yield on 100oz of gold will be higher than the yield on the equivalent dollars over the next few years or decades.

The dollar will be the last currency to fall which is why gold will be rocky and treated as a short dollar bet ( which it is) whilst all other asset classes and currencies tank.

It's never about anything other than yield and in times of growth gold suffers because it's got a zero yield. In times of retrenchment a zero yield is the closet to positive.

Gold will eventually fall when growth returns. That ain't happening yet .

This scenario had been the case for centuries and will remain so .

[Grrrr I'm a tiger]

warpig, on 17 May 2012 - 01:28 AM, said:

I got my crayons out and posted this a couple of weeks ago. It seemed fairly obvious that the PM market would be hit by concentrated short selling at `the critical juncture.` They had to or it was going to break out to the upside and challenge the previous high. A rising gold price signals weakness and mistrust in a [currency|economy], they had a tactical reason not to let this happen. This hints we are much closer to the Keynesian end point than most economists would care to admit. It doesn't change anything, it just delays the inevitable IMO.

It is not specific to gold though.



http://soberlook.com...l-outflows.html


It is just part of what you would expect from a normal deleveraging exercise. Of course from a straight 'demand' side, the effect of this on the Rupee is key.

Quote

Capital outflows from emerging markets, in particular the BRIC nations, are picking up steam. BRIC currencies, except for the Renminbi (which is tightly controlled by China) have corrected sharply. (The charts below show how much of each currency can be bought with one dollar - the larger the number the weaker the currency).

This post has been edited by No Future: 17 May 2012 - 07:33 AM

[Number79]

warpig, on 17 May 2012 - 01:28 AM, said:

I got my crayons out and posted this a couple of weeks ago. It seemed fairly obvious that the PM market would be hit by concentrated short selling at `the critical juncture.` They had to or it was going to break out to the upside and challenge the previous high. A rising gold price signals weakness and mistrust in a [currency|economy], they had a tactical reason not to let this happen. This hints we are much closer to the Keynesian end point than most economists would care to admit. It doesn't change anything, it just delays the inevitable IMO.

Nice chart WP, I had 1550 -1600 for earlier in the month but didnt really think that we would have gone much below 1600 tbh. I have next major support @ 1300-1350, what you thinking to downside possibilities?

[Number79]

Never ceases to amaze me how the gold argument rages on with such verosity, lmao.

I tired of it long ago - may I suggest something that will save us all a lot of time and effort?

Do your own research, if you like what you find as insurance/protection then just buy some fooking gold and if you dont then get some gilts/stocks/isa or wotever instead.

It really is that simple.

[R K]

Quote

FT Commodities ‏@ftcommodities #Gold comes off recent lows but meandering under $1550 on Greek worries. Physical buying not coming in as strongly say analysts

Indian demand down 29% says gold council

This post has been edited by Banana Monarchy: 17 May 2012 - 09:30 AM

[PricedOutNative]

Anyone holding any investment position should constantly access that investment, you really need to expose yourself to views contrary to your own, argue your case and ponder if you are still so sure of your position…

Number79, on 17 May 2012 - 09:21 AM, said:

Never ceases to amaze me how the gold argument rages on with such verosity, lmao.

I tired of it long ago - may I suggest something that will save us all a lot of time and effort?

Do your own research, if you like what you find as insurance/protection then just buy some fooking gold and if you dont then get some gilts/stocks/isa or wotever instead.

It really is that simple.