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Gold strategy in the current economy


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#3226 PricedOutNative

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 09:35 AM

Anyone holding any investment position should constantly access that investment, you really need to expose yourself to views contrary to your own, argue your case and ponder if you are still so sure of your position…

Never ceases to amaze me how the gold argument rages on with such verosity, lmao.

I tired of it long ago - may I suggest something that will save us all a lot of time and effort?

Do your own research, if you like what you find as insurance/protection then just buy some fooking gold and if you dont then get some gilts/stocks/isa or wotever instead.

It really is that simple.



#3227 R K

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 09:36 AM

Would any of the bears like to explain why fiat currency is in any way superior to gold/ other commodities in the long term?

If not please STFU, as saying gold is in a bubble because it is fvcking high, is like saying that National debt is in a bubble because it is also fvcking high.

National debt is high and cannot be repaid so is being and will continue to be inflated away via fiat expansion.

Doesn't it strike you as a bit weird that we are four years into a fvkcing depression and yet RPI Inflation is in the region 5-6%??? Duh!

Factor in all the other sh1tty UK problems of rising benefits, EU cash drain, pensions, elderly population, peak oil and more Layabout governments and you will see the case for gold (as a store of value at the very least) is a pretty bloody strong one.



All that obtained 1980 - 1999.

Gold fell >90% in real terms (shadowstats CPI)

Why? Because the 76-80 bubble burst and labour's share of productivity fell due to de-unionisation resulting in the end of wage inflation and the start of this phase of WTO globalisation.

You're looking the the wrong place for the drivers of this bubble. Cast your eyes to the east.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#3228 DTMark

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 09:42 AM

Never ceases to amaze me how the gold argument rages on with such verosity, lmao.

I tired of it long ago - may I suggest something that will save us all a lot of time and effort?

Do your own research, if you like what you find as insurance/protection then just buy some fooking gold and if you dont then get some gilts/stocks/isa or wotever instead.

It really is that simple.


For the client, it isn't. Though I don't want to elaborate on that... but having become intrigued myself, I feel like I want to know what's going on with gold.

As you say - the gold argument does seem rather 'religious' - I feel a little like I've wandered onto a battlefield during the English civil war :)

#3229 Number79

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 09:50 AM

Anyone holding any investment position should constantly access that investment, you really need to expose yourself to views contrary to your own, argue your case and ponder if you are still so sure of your position…


Notice that I said "insurance/protection" and nothing about investment or trading accounts.

I play both sides of the fence and agree entirely with your point.

However, the battle that rages here is not about trading strategies but the age old for or against shiny metal. For those people, I say either buy some or dont. That way the thread can be used more for those involved in positions and considering strategies and positions.

#3230 Georgia O'Keeffe

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 09:52 AM

For the client, it isn't. Though I don't want to elaborate on that... but having become intrigued myself, I feel like I want to know what's going on with gold.

As you say - the gold argument does seem rather 'religious' - I feel a little like I've wandered onto a battlefield during the English civil war :)

its very simple really

When gold goes up its the market, when it goes down its a conspiracy by this guy

Posted Image

its similar for equities

When they go down its the market, when they go up its a conspiracy by this guy

Posted Image

everything else is irrelevant

Edited by Georgia O'Keeffe, 17 May 2012 - 09:57 AM.


#3231 Number79

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 10:03 AM

Conspiracy....bah!

You are so old skool....it's "manipulation" now dontyaknow

#3232 warpig

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 10:09 AM

Thanks for the link. In isolation, I appreciate India's gold imports were down 5% and this appears to account for the decline, but the full picture is China's imports rose by 10% in the same period. I look forward to reading Q2 import figures, but I think you'll see a similar pattern.

I stand by my previous statement, people are selling paper gold to buy physical. There is a rumour that 5000 metric tonnes have left Western vaults for Eastern shores in the last 2.5 months. I can't substantiate that claim, but it fits with everything else I've read over the same period. Demand is not weak, 5000 metric tonnes is a huge amount of physical gold.

It is not specific to gold though.

It is just part of what you would expect from a normal deleveraging exercise. Of course from a straight 'demand' side, the effect of this on the Rupee is key.



#3233 warpig

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 11:24 AM

I'll be looking for confirmation of a bottom at these levels and filling my boots accordingly.

gold --> If support breaks for $1,487 you would probably see gold move to $1,400.
silver --> If $25 doesn’t hold, it will retrace to the 2010 breakout of $20.

http://kingworldnews...al_Markets.html

#3234 hotairmail

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 12:46 PM

I'll be looking for confirmation of a bottom at these levels and filling my boots accordingly.

gold --> If support breaks for $1,487 you would probably see gold move to $1,400.
silver --> If $25 doesn't hold, it will retrace to the 2010 breakout of $20.

http://kingworldnews...al_Markets.html




Across all the markets, I get the feeling of boiling frogs. It is a relatively slow but accumulatively quite quick and inexorable correction because of the consistency of direction.

I like to see holders shaken out of their positions - but it seems it requires the scariness of volatility to do this. At some point there could be a hell of a sell off before buyers step back in....traders seem to be waitiing for the strongest of weak hands to let go.


EDIT: Unusual for selling to just peter out although it does happen. A cathartic episode would be more typical I think.

Edited by No Future, 17 May 2012 - 12:57 PM.



#3235 Errol

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 02:11 PM

Find the broken chart I posted here - http://www.zerohedge...ience-and-logic

Edited by Errol, 17 May 2012 - 02:24 PM.

Want to get paid for polls? Try YouGov


#3236 The Masked Tulip

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 02:14 PM


The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.

#3237 warpig

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 03:16 PM

Good explanation!

It's never about anything other than yield and in times of growth gold suffers because it's got a zero yield. In times of retrenchment a zero yield is the closet to positive.



#3238 warpig

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Posted 18 May 2012 - 12:44 AM

Sorry I missed your post. Louise Yamada does good TA which I trust and she makes a good point about the current trend from 2009 being called in to question. A 50% Fibonacci retracement would take us to $1,400 where there is also significant support. So I think $1,400 is probably the bottom, if it gets that far... If you can BTFD within 10% of the bottom then you're doing well IMO. So that would put the buy zone anywhere between $1,400 and $1,540. I have some funds to splash at the moment and I think I might average in with half at the retest of $1,535 if it looks like it confirms the bottom and then the other half either above or below that point a week or so later.

Whilst I have a feeling it isn't over yet, the fundamentals will trump any chart and anything could happen at any time.

gold --> If support breaks for $1,487 you would probably see gold move to $1,400.
silver --> If $25 doesn’t hold, it will retrace to the 2010 breakout of $20.

Nice chart WP, I had 1550 -1600 for earlier in the month but didnt really think that we would have gone much below 1600 tbh. I have next major support @ 1300-1350, what you thinking to downside possibilities?



#3239 SEW247

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Posted 18 May 2012 - 12:54 AM

wow, what an exciting week it's been thus far!

I'm currently in Japan so a few hours ahead, but looks like there's been a bit of a rebound going by my personal measure (delivered Krugerrand price) on Bullionbypost which dropped down to £1007 at one point and has rebounded slightly to £1050.

I'm trying to get my head around what is going on, guessing its the flight to cash and US$ at the moment whilst the plates continue to spin but are starting to show yet further signs of wobbling.

Rightly or wrongly I have used the opportunity to acquire a few more shiny yellow ones. - I cant see what has fundamentally changed in the last 2 weeks, debt piles getting ever larger, deficits, inflation, negative interest rates etc.

Has anyone else "filled their boots" this week? ;)

What are the gold bugs (not the usual trolls please..) thoughts on the week ahead?

#3240 warpig

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Posted 18 May 2012 - 01:07 AM

Using sentiment as my guide, I think the gold bulls are contrarian investors again and the weak hands have been shaken out of the market. There's something satisfying about going against the grain... :D

Across all the markets, I get the feeling of boiling frogs. It is a relatively slow but accumulatively quite quick and inexorable correction because of the consistency of direction.

I like to see holders shaken out of their positions - but it seems it requires the scariness of volatility to do this. At some point there could be a hell of a sell off before buyers step back in....traders seem to be waitiing for the strongest of weak hands to let go.

EDIT: Unusual for selling to just peter out although it does happen. A cathartic episode would be more typical I think.






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