[thirdwave]

I am contemplating the slightly crazy move from the leafy London burbs to Swansea and, having patiently waited for the last 6 years in the vain hope of a 'meaningful' property crash, am determined not to suffer any more at the hands of Welsh LLs and have therefore decided to finally take the plunge. Having lurked on the Wales regional forum for a while, the impression I get is that sellers in Swansea, particularly in the more 'desirable' parts (if there is such a thing in Swansea lol) remain in a deep state of denial/delusion, perhaps unmatched even by levels witnessed in the SE.

I was down in Swansea last week and took the opportunity to look at a few properties in Swansea West (TMT's bugbear lol) but found many of them to be grossly overpriced,usually at 2007 levels. I could easily buy a 4 bedder in good decorative order in the affluent West Sussex commuter town in live in for that price! Although I have no way of checking what these sort of houses were asking prior to the crash but it looked like many have been on the market for over 6-18 months and were asking well over the highest prices ever achieved on their respective streets.

It looks like I am getting to that RB moment where constant nagging by Mrs TW may soon overwhelm me so I would be grateful for advice from those in the know on the following-

1)What is the state of the market in Swansea, particularly with reference to 4+bedders in good areas?

2) Since asking prices are for most part delusional, what sort of offers are currently being seriously entertained by vendors? Are EAs actively encouraging sellers to be more realistic with pricing? I recall TMT mentioning that his friends recently had offers 20% below accepted. Is that the case across the board i.e with pricier properties as well? Or are these limited to distress sales associated with death/divorce/repos?

Thanks

This post has been edited by thirdwave: 27 June 2011 - 10:27 PM

[The Masked Tulip]

I will reply in the morning sometime - sleep now.

[The Masked Tulip]

I personally think that we are at the point of moving from denial to fear.

Yes, there are still plenty of EAs and sellers IMPO who are living in denial - they probably will be.

But the market is getting very mixed now.

Most of the new properties coming to the market come on for ludicrous asking prices - there is really no point in looking at something which has come on in the past 6 months, let alone in the past 8 weeks. They need a dose of reality.

Then you have the properties that have been on a year or more - sometimes several years - which just swap from EA to EA staying on at the same original ludicrous asking price. The sellers are clearly in denial and have no idea. For example, there is a house on West X Lane for circa 350K which I first saw for sale about 5 years ago for 380K. Wouldn't pay 200K for it personally. Or the 300K 3 bed semi near the Grange in West X that has been on 300K for 3 years no - just changes EA each year.

But there are properties that are beginning to drop in asking price now - property bee on RM shows this. It is very much like the cracks in the dam and you need to find those properties. I can't find one that I want myself, yet, but I have my eyes on a few properties. Some of these asking price drops are stupid - i.e. take 3K off a 350K asking price. But others are dropping 30K at a time.

In terms of 4 bed properties - Newton, Derwen Fawr and Bishoptson is full of them. You have you choice. The problem is that, whereas, many of these type properties came on for about 300K asking, now they often come on for ABOVE 300K asking with nearer 350K not being uncommon. You then sit and wait for it to come down to what should have been its original asking price of 300K... some are doing, others just sit there.

The problem as I see it with Swansea is that 3 or 4 of the EAs have been in competition to get stuff on their books so have been ramping initial asking prices. I also know of at least 2 EAs who are worried sick because they bought so much property in the boom period - if house prices in certain roads slip below what they paid for them then they are sitting on bankruptcy and not just losing a 'few' tens of thousands.

I know of another EA in Mumbles that has 4 properties listed as SSTC - a friend of mine simply put in offers on all 4 and has since pulled out, but the properties are still listed as SSTC.

The reality is that those 4 beds in Newton, Bishopston, Derwen Fawr, etc should have come on for 299K asking initial and have now dropped to the 270K/260K ball-park and they probably would sell. The EAs have created a rod for their own backs - so let them hang by them.

One of the old school EAs told me a few days ago that little is selling in Mumbles above 250K - yes, some properties are selling but only to those who have lots of cash, who are returning from places like London or who are simply finally a bit thick re IRs in the long-term.

This EA told me that he is now refusing to take certain properties on the books because he can't compete with the valuations that other EAs are giving sellers, as he knows he will not be able to sell the houses for those asking prices.

The recession has not hit Swansea yet. It is very odd. IMPO lots of very over-valued over-priced stuff out there. You will be amazed what rubbish 300K will buy you in Swansea.

So, can you find something - perhaps. You have to keep an eye on the market and look for stuff that has been on for a while or people are desperate to sell. Problem though, at the moment those kind are still few and far between. Denial still rules the Swansea property market IMPO.

[The Masked Tulip]

Most of the houses I look at are asking far more than 2007/08 boom prices. It is as if the EAs just add 1K per week to the value of a house. There is no financial accumen or understanding as far as I can make out.

At this rate 3 bed semis will be half a million in a few years.

I could drive you around Swansea West and show you a whole host of properties that are asking 50K to 100K more than the 2007/08 bubble height. Complete delusion IMPO.

It is the public sector jobs and low IRs keeping these people in their houses.

I know of a 3 bed semi in Mmbles that was bought for 260K at the height and is now on for 300K - one EA refused it as he said he knew he could not sell it for over 250K and friends of mine paid 215K, on a 245K asking price, last June for a completely modernised identical house 3 doors away. 300K for a semi in Swansea!? The road next to it has a 2 bed cottage just come on for 280K asking price - it is tiny, near a busy rat run junction with a speed bump outside which is on a slope so lots of engine revving, braking, etc, but the owner from Cambridge has an EA that has convinced her it should go on for 280K.

[swissy_fit]

thirdwave, on 27 June 2011 - 10:22 PM, said:

I am contemplating the slightly crazy move from the leafy London burbs to Swansea and, having patiently waited for the last 6 years in the vain hope of a 'meaningful' property crash, am determined not to suffer any more at the hands of Welsh LLs and have therefore decided to finally take the plunge. Having lurked on the Wales regional forum for a while, the impression I get is that sellers in Swansea, particularly in the more 'desirable' parts (if there is such a thing in Swansea lol) remain in a deep state of denial/delusion, perhaps unmatched even by levels witnessed in the SE.

I was down in Swansea last week and took the opportunity to look at a few properties in Swansea West (TMT's bugbear lol) but found many of them to be grossly overpriced,usually at 2007 levels. I could easily buy a 4 bedder in good decorative order in the affluent West Sussex commuter town in live in for that price! Although I have no way of checking what these sort of houses were asking prior to the crash but it looked like many have been on the market for over 6-18 months and were asking well over the highest prices ever achieved on their respective streets.

It looks like I am getting to that RB moment where constant nagging by Mrs TW may soon overwhelm me so I would be grateful for advice from those in the know on the following-

1)What is the state of the market in Swansea, particularly with reference to 4+bedders in good areas?

2) Since asking prices are for most part delusional, what sort of offers are currently being seriously entertained by vendors? Are EAs actively encouraging sellers to be more realistic with pricing? I recall TMT mentioning that his friends recently had offers 20% below accepted. Is that the case across the board i.e with pricier properties as well? Or are these limited to distress sales associated with death/divorce/repos?

Thanks

Wait for the crash to hit - Swansea has virtually nothing going for it IMO except the proximity of Rhossili bay, so it's bound to fall further than West Sussex.
TMT will provide detailed local info, but as an outsider the prices round Swansea look insane, one of the most delusional in the UK.
There are houses in neighbouring France near Geneva where I live that are cheaper, and here the checkout girls in Migros take home about 2200 quid net a month - you can do the maths!

[The Masked Tulip]

swissy_fit, on 28 June 2011 - 09:57 AM, said:

Wait for the crash to hit - Swansea has virtually nothing going for it IMO except the proximity of Rhossili bay, so it's bound to fall further than West Sussex.
TMT will provide detailed local info, but as an outsider the prices round Swansea look insane, one of the most delusional in the UK.
There are houses in neighbouring France near Geneva where I live that are cheaper, and here the checkout girls in Migros take home about 2200 quid net a month - you can do the maths!

Spot on. I am focusing on keeping my cash ready for a stock market correction and will then pile in to shares for a few years.

Putting my money into Swansea property now just seems madness, as most EAs and sellers are still in laa-laa land. In the meantime I am simply going to chase IT work globally, get out and see more of the world. Hey, might settle down somewhere else.

I have friends who are GPs who can't afford to buy in Swansea West - nuts. Truth is, with the rare exception virtually everyone selling in Swansea West could not afford to buy their own home nowadays if they were coming as a newbie buyer or from lower down the ladder.

When IRs do eventually rise the city is going to get blitzed.

The city centre is run down and dirty with few classy shops - I can't think of one - but it has Home Counties asking prices.

[The Masked Tulip]

Looks like 1,000 HMRC jobs to go - most of them in Swansea

http://www.accountan...es+under+threat

[diddums]

Long-time lurker, first time poster alert (!)

Hi TMT, I've been reading your posts re: Swansea for a while now, but they have tended to concentrate on the west of Swansea, only natural I guess if that's where your interests are, but I'm wondering what your thoughts are on the East, specifially Birchgrove area? I would love to read any insights you may have.

thanks
diddums

[The Masked Tulip]

diddums, on 28 June 2011 - 02:08 PM, said:

Long-time lurker, first time poster alert (!)

Hi TMT, I've been reading your posts re: Swansea for a while now, but they have tended to concentrate on the west of Swansea, only natural I guess if that's where your interests are, but I'm wondering what your thoughts are on the East, specifially Birchgrove area? I would love to read any insights you may have.

thanks
diddums

Been watching Birchgrove - don't report on it as I am not interested in living there. I have noticed some pretty nice price drops in the area in the past 6 months, more so since Easter.

I get the impression that there are some people there very eager to sell up and it is beginning to look as if you could get a very nice house if you haggle hard and find a desperate enough seller. Of course, if the city does crash then places like Birchgrove will go down further.

A friend who works for the Swans told me that the club bought houses in the BG area where players live - you know, they get a rental thrown in as parrt of their contracts.

There was lots of new builds in the BG area during the boom years - some of those have been dropping quite a bit.

http://www.rightmove..._includeSSTC=on

Edit:

You need Property Bee plugin for Firefox to see the price drops at the above link.

This post has been edited by The Masked Tulip: 28 June 2011 - 02:41 PM

[diddums]

Hi TMT,

Thanks for taking the time to reply - I'm interested in Birchgrove for it's proximity to the M4 heading east, and it looks like (which is more than amply demonstrated by the hand-drawn map on your link) an area of two estates, the 'marshland' plain (Swansea Vale) and the 'top-end' which is going up Drummau mountain (off Birchgrove Road). The former is very densely packed but priced quite well, but the latter seems to have more value going for it? One house which looks good value (well, to me at least! what do I know ) is this one, but it's not showing on your Rightmove link, only Findaproperty here. What do you think?

thanks again
diddums

[The Masked Tulip]

diddums, on 28 June 2011 - 04:05 PM, said:

Hi TMT,

Thanks for taking the time to reply - I'm interested in Birchgrove for it's proximity to the M4 heading east, and it looks like (which is more than amply demonstrated by the hand-drawn map on your link) an area of two estates, the 'marshland' plain (Swansea Vale) and the 'top-end' which is going up Drummau mountain (off Birchgrove Road). The former is very densely packed but priced quite well, but the latter seems to have more value going for it? One house which looks good value (well, to me at least! what do I know ) is this one, but it's not showing on your Rightmove link, only Findaproperty here. What do you think?

thanks again
diddums

I remember a few years ago an EA telling me that Swansea Vale asking prices were way over-valued. The theory being that what do you do when you live there. No parks or ameneties nearby - basically have to get in a car to do anything.

If I was going to buy that property you mention I would want it nearer to 150K in the current market. For slightly higher asking price you can get nicer houses in Killay which, IMPO, is a nicer locale to live - parks, cycle track to the beach, good shopping centre, pubs, etc.

IM

[diddums]

The Masked Tulip, on 28 June 2011 - 04:09 PM, said:

I remember a few years ago an EA telling me that Swansea Vale asking prices were way over-valued. The theory being that what do you do when you live there. No parks or ameneties nearby - basically have to get in a car to do anything.

If I was going to buy that property you mention I would want it nearer to 150K in the current market. For slightly higher asking price you can get nicer houses in Killay which, IMPO, is a nicer locale to live - parks, cycle track to the beach, good shopping centre, pubs, etc.

IM

Good points - I didn't know that Killay had dropped down that far TBH! I guess I should just sit tight and watch what happens ;-) When's the newest tranche of house price data released again?

[The Masked Tulip]

diddums, on 28 June 2011 - 04:16 PM, said:

Good points - I didn't know that Killay had dropped down that far TBH! I guess I should just sit tight and watch what happens ;-) When's the newest tranche of house price data released again?

Yes, Killay is going down substantially and I think it will be indicative of where Swansea will go.

Of course, there are still people refusing to take less than their ludicrous asking prices - i.e. 2 houses for sale for 315 and 319 who will not accept a penny less even though another house opposite them sold for 270 recently... and that was sold by a canny EA who managed to find someone naive enough to pay more than the 25o 2007 high.

But there are lots of price drops, lots of people keen to sell and you can put in a hard low offer can't you. I like Killay but, for personal reasons, won't live there. Rather been in Killay than BG.

[thirdwave]

The Masked Tulip, on 28 June 2011 - 09:43 AM, said:

I personally think that we are at the point of moving from denial to fear.

Yes, there are still plenty of EAs and sellers IMPO who are living in denial - they probably will be.

But the market is getting very mixed now.

Most of the new properties coming to the market come on for ludicrous asking prices - there is really no point in looking at something which has come on in the past 6 months, let alone in the past 8 weeks. They need a dose of reality.

Then you have the properties that have been on a year or more - sometimes several years - which just swap from EA to EA staying on at the same original ludicrous asking price. The sellers are clearly in denial and have no idea. For example, there is a house on West X Lane for circa 350K which I first saw for sale about 5 years ago for 380K. Wouldn't pay 200K for it personally. Or the 300K 3 bed semi near the Grange in West X that has been on 300K for 3 years no - just changes EA each year.

But there are properties that are beginning to drop in asking price now - property bee on RM shows this. It is very much like the cracks in the dam and you need to find those properties. I can't find one that I want myself, yet, but I have my eyes on a few properties. Some of these asking price drops are stupid - i.e. take 3K off a 350K asking price. But others are dropping 30K at a time.

In terms of 4 bed properties - Newton, Derwen Fawr and Bishoptson is full of them. You have you choice. The problem is that, whereas, many of these type properties came on for about 300K asking, now they often come on for ABOVE 300K asking with nearer 350K not being uncommon. You then sit and wait for it to come down to what should have been its original asking price of 300K... some are doing, others just sit there.

The problem as I see it with Swansea is that 3 or 4 of the EAs have been in competition to get stuff on their books so have been ramping initial asking prices. I also know of at least 2 EAs who are worried sick because they bought so much property in the boom period - if house prices in certain roads slip below what they paid for them then they are sitting on bankruptcy and not just losing a 'few' tens of thousands.

I know of another EA in Mumbles that has 4 properties listed as SSTC - a friend of mine simply put in offers on all 4 and has since pulled out, but the properties are still listed as SSTC.

The reality is that those 4 beds in Newton, Bishopston, Derwen Fawr, etc should have come on for 299K asking initial and have now dropped to the 270K/260K ball-park and they probably would sell. The EAs have created a rod for their own backs - so let them hang by them.

One of the old school EAs told me a few days ago that little is selling in Mumbles above 250K - yes, some properties are selling but only to those who have lots of cash, who are returning from places like London or who are simply finally a bit thick re IRs in the long-term.

This EA told me that he is now refusing to take certain properties on the books because he can't compete with the valuations that other EAs are giving sellers, as he knows he will not be able to sell the houses for those asking prices.

The recession has not hit Swansea yet. It is very odd. IMPO lots of very over-valued over-priced stuff out there. You will be amazed what rubbish 300K will buy you in Swansea.

So, can you find something - perhaps. You have to keep an eye on the market and look for stuff that has been on for a while or people are desperate to sell. Problem though, at the moment those kind are still few and far between. Denial still rules the Swansea property market IMPO.

Totally agree..Consider this beauty, for example

http://www.rightmove...y-28442452.html

Has been on the market since Feb 2010,initially at 380k but recently reduced to 360k.It was bought in March 2009 for 240k by the current mortgagees, who probably spent in the region of 50-60 k tarting it up (new bathroom, lick of paint, twigs etc). Only one property has ever sold on the street for over 300k and that was at the height of the boom in 2008 and had a much bigger garden compared other properties on the street. Most sales at the height of the boom (2006-2008) were in the region of 250k-280k-in the early 2000s they were changing hands for around 130-150k IIRC.

What this deluded seller has done is raise the price expectations of other sellers nearby and two other houses on the same street have come on to the market at exactly 350k..I believe this pattern is being repeated throughout Swansea..

Compare that to what you can get for the same price (asking) in Horsham, West Sussex,close to the station within 50 mins of London

http://www.rightmove...y-18508158.html

However, the question remains where does it leave serious buyers like me? I am a first time buyer with a rock solid job (a rare commodity nowadays), and a large deposit.What should my strategy be? A full scale crash seems tantalising out of reach, as low interest rates allow mortgagees to hang on to their houses. Houses that have been on the market for over 6-12 months are either rubbish or ludicrously overpriced. I am interested in whether actual sales are going through in the 250k+ price bracket and if so, what discounts are being accepted? Where is Swanseaestateagent when you need him lol!

This post has been edited by thirdwave: 28 June 2011 - 07:20 PM

[thirdwave]

swissy_fit, on 28 June 2011 - 09:57 AM, said:

Wait for the crash to hit - Swansea has virtually nothing going for it IMO except the proximity of Rhossili bay, so it's bound to fall further than West Sussex.
TMT will provide detailed local info, but as an outsider the prices round Swansea look insane, one of the most delusional in the UK.
There are houses in neighbouring France near Geneva where I live that are cheaper, and here the checkout girls in Migros take home about 2200 quid net a month - you can do the maths!

Swissy, I have been waiting for the friggin crash to hit for the last 6 years.The truth is the govt would do anything to prevent a full scale crash from happening..one can only hope gravity will eventually win out.

I recall you were planning to move to someplace near Gatwick? I would recommend staying where you are lol but if you do need to move I'd suggest Horsham..very nice generally and house prices have also been dropping recently..

This post has been edited by thirdwave: 28 June 2011 - 07:54 PM