[Travisher]

I live in a nice village with a fairly good set of schools where my boys are incarcerated er indoctrinated, I mean educated, while I slave in the nearby town.
The local EA is one Thomas Morris. last week I carried out a little exercise. I counted up the number of TMs adverts that said 'no forward chain' or 'no upward chain'. Now I know that the odd granny dies leaving vacant possession but to my certain knowledge that doesn't account for more than one or two at any one time. A quick check on the ones around the village shows they are indeed empty. The only conclusion I can reach is that these are BTLs selling out.
So with about half the properties advertised as 'no forward chain', we either have an outbreak of the black death or a panic exodus from the market.

My near neighbour is trying to sell his house, bought early 2007 for 177k, for the princely sum of 185k. He is not using an agent since he needs every penny for himself.
If the house follows national averages he'll be lucky to get 150k.

Even in the face of the evidence above there are still people expanding into more BTL.

[erranta]

Travisher, on 04 March 2011 - 05:49 PM, said:

I live in a nice village with a fairly good set of schools where my boys are incarcerated er indoctrinated, I mean educated, while I slave in the nearby town.
The local EA is one Thomas Morris. last week I carried out a little exercise. I counted up the number of TMs adverts that said 'no forward chain' or 'no upward chain'. Now I know that the odd granny dies leaving vacant possession but to my certain knowledge that doesn't account for more than one or two at any one time. A quick check on the ones around the village shows they are indeed empty. The only conclusion I can reach is that these are BTLs selling out.
So with about half the properties advertised as 'no forward chain', we either have an outbreak of the black death or a panic exodus from the market.

My near neighbour is trying to sell his house, bought early 2007 for 177k, for the princely sum of 185k. He is not using an agent since he needs every penny for himself.
If the house follows national averages he'll be lucky to get 150k.

Even in the face of the evidence above there are still people expanding into more BTL.

Well March is just across the way - remember AJAY "Awooga" the property investor man?
Big repo sell off going on?

errrr Sorry you won't coz it's a first post - unless you have lurked for yrs.
Anyway go and introduce yourself on the main page (at the top) like you were meant to

This post has been edited by erranta: 04 March 2011 - 06:18 PM

[Monkey]

There are lots of reasons for no forward chain/vacant properties being sold

STR
Second home being sold
already bought their next home
death
BTL being sold
reposession
emergrating
Prision sentance

and more i cant think of

[General Congreve]

For a moment there I thought you'd uncovered a government/bank btl landlord backdoor bailout conspiracy to prop up the housing market! I was mildly indignant with rage until I read the first post

[Travisher]

erranta, on 04 March 2011 - 06:15 PM, said:

Anyway go and introduce yourself on the main page (at the top) like you were meant to

main page (at the top) - not much of a URL.
I'm quite happy to abide by forum rules - which I've read and it doesn't say go to a specific URL and introduce yourself. However, I shall go to
http://www.housepric...opic=75123&st=0
Where it says; Please feel free to make your first post in this thread, perhaps a brief introduction of yourself, how you have found this site and why you have joined. Some people also say whether they are a homeowner, first time buyer, looking to buy, sell-to-renter or anything else, but that entirely up to you.

[Travisher]

Monkey, on 04 March 2011 - 06:40 PM, said:

There are lots of reasons for no forward chain/vacant properties being sold

STR
Second home being sold
already bought their next home
death
BTL being sold
reposession
emergrating
Prision sentance

and more i cant think of

Good point but half of the houses on their books?
- Not really the place for second homes, nor are the properties the sort attractive to 2nd homers.
- Do people really risk bridging loans and buy ahead of selling? They must be very credit worthy.
- No signs of plague unless you count the outbreak of chickenpox at school.
- Repo - well if it is its just as dire.
- I have to confess to looking at NZ but the missus is a bit nervous about earthquakes.
- One of my staff got himself banged up and declared bankrupt but the bank haven't taken the house and don't seem to be able to cope with the idea he ain't gonna pay no more.
:-)

[live in hope]

Travisher, on 04 March 2011 - 10:09 PM, said:

main page (at the top) - not much of a URL.
I'm quite happy to abide by forum rules - which I've read and it doesn't say go to a specific URL and introduce yourself. However, I shall go to
http://www.housepric...opic=75123&st=0
Where it says; Please feel free to make your first post in this thread, perhaps a brief introduction of yourself, how you have found this site and why you have joined. Some people also say whether they are a homeowner, first time buyer, looking to buy, sell-to-renter or anything else, but that entirely up to you.

Dont bother with that crap. People will get to know your drift from your posts. Welcome to the forum. Sounds like you are local to me.

[Travisher]

I went to look at a house similar to one I looked at last year at 189k. On Google maps this one had a to let sign outside and the EA pictures were of an empty property.
Turns out that to sell the place the owner has installed one of their offspring who was trying to get the garden back under control.
Agent is asking 199k for a 3 bed. I looked at the land registry and the very similar house we looked at just down the road had sold 8 months down the line at 170k and another similar one at 175k a couple of months earlier. The agent said these people had tried to sell it a few years ago (2007/8) at 215k with no takers. If you take off the average market fall you get about 170k for December 2010 which is when the other one was registered at that price.
So the agents were overpricing by 20k last spring and now they are overpricing by 30k this spring - and they know it as they didn't react at all when my wife said she thought a 3 bed in the area was worth perhaps 170k. Do we put in an offer at 170k or assume the market will fall by around 12% this year, a figure that wipes out most of our life savings if the work dries up?
Loads more properties in the area seem to be BTL bailouts and the agents are just desperate to find a bigger fool to buy from them.
Sadly I think we have to sit on our hands since they aren't going to accept 149k offer are they!

[redwing]

Travisher, on 09 May 2011 - 08:45 PM, said:

I went to look at a house similar to one I looked at last year at 189k. On Google maps this one had a to let sign outside and the EA pictures were of an empty property.
Turns out that to sell the place the owner has installed one of their offspring who was trying to get the garden back under control.
Agent is asking 199k for a 3 bed. I looked at the land registry and the very similar house we looked at just down the road had sold 8 months down the line at 170k and another similar one at 175k a couple of months earlier. The agent said these people had tried to sell it a few years ago (2007/8) at 215k with no takers. If you take off the average market fall you get about 170k for December 2010 which is when the other one was registered at that price.
So the agents were overpricing by 20k last spring and now they are overpricing by 30k this spring - and they know it as they didn't react at all when my wife said she thought a 3 bed in the area was worth perhaps 170k. Do we put in an offer at 170k or assume the market will fall by around 12% this year, a figure that wipes out most of our life savings if the work dries up?
Loads more properties in the area seem to be BTL bailouts and the agents are just desperate to find a bigger fool to buy from them.
Sadly I think we have to sit on our hands since they aren't going to accept 149k offer are they!

You don't know until you try. Why not give it a go. It's no more unrealistic an offer than the unrealistic asking prices they've been going with.

[mikeymadman]

Go on - make the offer! At the very least your softening them up to accept not as much less than the asking price form someone else! And at best you're ruining an EA's day...

[Democorruptcy]

Travisher, on 09 May 2011 - 08:45 PM, said:

So the agents were overpricing by 20k last spring and now they are overpricing by 30k this spring - and they know it as they didn't react at all when my wife said she thought a 3 bed in the area was worth perhaps 170k. Do we put in an offer at 170k or assume the market will fall by around 12% this year, a figure that wipes out most of our life savings if the work dries up?
Loads more properties in the area seem to be BTL bailouts and the agents are just desperate to find a bigger fool to buy from them.
Sadly I think we have to sit on our hands since they aren't going to accept 149k offer are they!

By viewing it you have made them think a price of £199k is acceptable. Maybe now you need to offer £149k to help change their mind?

[Travisher]

Well the vendor was unhappy with my offer, I didn't expect anything else since the agent has inflated their expectations. They had someone else interested but they couldn't get their act together, in other words a time waster. The agent now says the vendor is thinking of renting it out for a year and trying again later. I may be waiting but then my offer will probably be a lot less than it was this time around. My better half suggested renting it while we wait for it to come back on the market :-) I'm inclined to let them stew will no rental income to salve their pride.

Other pointers to a fall in the area;
Thomas Morris didn't include the local office in their adverts in the local rag this week, presumably because there is so little on the books. Not more than half a dozen last week.
Peter Lane in the local town no longer have prices on their display boards so you have to go in and ask, or pass on by! Some of the other agents have half of their offerings marked as 'new price'.
A friend who lives elsewhere in Essex has had his house on the market for 6 months with no interest. Much against the agent's wishes, he dropped the price by 15k and immediately attracted a positive response.

[Local Buyer]

>>>to sell the place the owner has installed one of their offspring who was trying to get the garden back under control. Agent is asking 199k for a 3 bed. I looked at the land registry and the very similar house we looked at just down the road had sold 8 months down the line at 170k...

We viewed that place too... around July. Thought exactly the same as you re values and had we been interested we said it was in an auction condition and £150k was about where it needed to be.

[Local Buyer]

BTW they've just moved the kids out, cut the hedges and painted the garage doors.... grapevine says it will be up with a new agent soon.

[Travisher]

Local Buyer, on 08 November 2011 - 11:35 AM, said:

BTW they've just moved the kids out, cut the hedges and painted the garage doors.... grapevine says it will be up with a new agent soon.

Well I'm not surprised. I've been making a few low offers around the place. Its looking very soft round here with some houses being marked as sold and then coming back on the market more than once. However, there are still mortgage agents touting BTL as an investment to the newly retired which makes the market a bit silly. One thing that tips 4+ bed houses into a high rental bracket round here is the presence of an American air force personnel since the base tends to pay top dollar. Friends moved to OZ and rented out their house here on the strength of it.