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Changing From Bull Or Bear


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Poll: Changing From Bull or Bear (56 member(s) have cast votes)

Are you thinking about changing your status

  1. From Bear to Neither (7 votes [12.50%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 12.50%

  2. From Neither to Bear (4 votes [7.14%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 7.14%

  3. From Bear to Bull (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. From Bull to Bear (2 votes [3.57%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 3.57%

  5. From Neither to Bull (1 votes [1.79%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 1.79%

  6. Voted Not changing (42 votes [75.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 75.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 Realistbear

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 05:51 PM

Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??

Edited by Realistbear, 08 December 2010 - 05:53 PM.

CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#2 The Masked Tulip

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 05:55 PM

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??



Made it years ago RB - I blame that scene in Spartacus where Laurence Olivier teaches Tony Curtis about some people enjoying oysters, some enjoying mussels and some enjoying both :blink:
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.

#3 Confounded

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 05:57 PM

Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??


Still a bear, how anyone can be bullish going forward just shows how much the modern economy is driven by propaganda and expectation management rather than fundamentals. The fundamentals will be overwhelming and will catch up.

I turn bullish the day wages start to rise rapidly in real terms, currently they are crashing in real terms!

Edited by Confounded, 08 December 2010 - 05:58 PM.


#4 montesquieu

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 05:59 PM

Not me. I've always maintained that the crash won't get going until the recovery gathers pace and interest rates rise. It has to happen. 2011 may be quiet but I see nothing to sustain prices at current level.

And of course I know we've all hung hopes on all sorts of triggers but the current European solvency crisis, which is being addressed by liquidity measures, can only end badly IMO.

#5 spiney

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:00 PM

Not me a bear all the way.

I see 15% to 20% nominal falls over the next two years.
with an additional 10% to 15% as a result of inflation over the same time period.

Spiney.
If you're going to be a bear, be a grizzly!!!

#6 MinceBalls

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:00 PM

RB, you are becomming the Court Jester of HPC ;)

Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??



#7 Giordano Bruno

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:05 PM

Not me a bear all the way.

I see 15% to 20% nominal falls over the next two years.
with an additional 10% to 15% as a result of inflation over the same time period.

Spiney.

likewise, but falls a bit more delayed.

----------------- ********************** -----------------


Regarding QE I think that Fiat Money Inflation in France is worth a read.

Property prices only ever go up ... except, of course, when they stay the same or when they come down.

You can go wrong with bricks and mortar.

The banksters need their lovely fat bonuses. The taxpayer has to pay.
Never mind, Taxpayer. Think of it as an exercise in generosity.

Profits will be privatized and losses will be socialized. - Thanks a bunch!

For educated opinion on the Kercher murder case, please read 'Injustice in Perugia' by Bruce Fisher and 'The Monster of Perugia' by Mark Waterbury.
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#8 winkie

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:08 PM

Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??



Land and property is still going down in real terms taking in consideration real inflation....net property yield is low and barely worthwhile in most areas.....less and less can find a foot on the first rung, many on the first rung are not going anywhere soon......wages are stagnant...debt is high...underemployment will not be buying and savings are low or non existent........so where are any rises coming from, all that is left for them is to fall. ;)
What you don't owe won't worry you.

Less can be more.

#9 Realistbear

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:08 PM

Made it years ago RB - I blame that scene in Spartacus where Laurence Olivier teaches Tony Curtis about some people enjoying oysters, some enjoying mussels and some enjoying both :blink:


Horses for courses. Crassus was apparently drawn to Grecian practices as was, so some say without any documented evidence, common among some of the Roman gentry of that period. As Del Boy would put it, a bit (nods head sideways), you know, a bit...... Rodders responds: Nooo, you don't mean (nods head sideways), do you?
CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#10 8 year itch

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:10 PM

You know that quote about not wanting to be a member of any club that would let you join?

Well, now I find out that Realistbear has become a neither I don't want to be part of any club he is a member of, so I shall be moving on shortly.

There is no ladder.

JY


No need to sell up, the next phase of the economics cycle is going to be very positive for anyone that owns property.

All I'm sayings is, don't listen to the property bears people, they are wrong.


#11 Realistbear

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:11 PM

No converts so Far? :blink:

The definition of a bear must mean having an expectaion, from here, of at least another 20% down.

10-15% down makes you a Niether IMO. I am going for another 10%.

A bull would see 5% down to even up in the next year or so (there can't be any bulls around).
CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#12 Realistbear

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:12 PM

You know that quote about not wanting to be a member of any club that would let you join?

Well, now I find out that Realistbear has become a neither I don't want to be part of any club he is a member of, so I shall be moving on shortly.



There are three choices and none of them is a club because membership is open to any or all!

Moving on the Bull or Bear and if Bear why so long as a Neither?

Edited by Realistbear, 08 December 2010 - 06:13 PM.

CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#13 winkie

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:13 PM

No converts so Far? :blink:

The definition of a bear must mean having an expectaion, from here, of at least another 20% down.

10-15% down makes you a Niether IMO. I am going for another 10%.

A bull would see 5% down to even up in the next year or so (there can't be any bulls around).



Bull means up...bear means down....neither means you don't know if you are coming or going. ;)
What you don't owe won't worry you.

Less can be more.

#14 Realistbear

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:19 PM

Lets see how many are changing?

Edited by Realistbear, 08 December 2010 - 06:32 PM.

CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#15 twatmangle

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Posted 08 December 2010 - 06:19 PM

Lets see how many are changing?

Staying neither.
I have nothing to say....




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