[Realistbear]

Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??

This post has been edited by Realistbear: 08 December 2010 - 05:53 PM

[The Masked Tulip]

Realistbear, on 08 December 2010 - 05:51 PM, said:

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??

Made it years ago RB - I blame that scene in Spartacus where Laurence Olivier teaches Tony Curtis about some people enjoying oysters, some enjoying mussels and some enjoying both

[Confounded]

Realistbear, on 08 December 2010 - 05:51 PM, said:

Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??

Still a bear, how anyone can be bullish going forward just shows how much the modern economy is driven by propaganda and expectation management rather than fundamentals. The fundamentals will be overwhelming and will catch up.

I turn bullish the day wages start to rise rapidly in real terms, currently they are crashing in real terms!

This post has been edited by Confounded: 08 December 2010 - 05:58 PM

[montesquieu]

Not me. I've always maintained that the crash won't get going until the recovery gathers pace and interest rates rise. It has to happen. 2011 may be quiet but I see nothing to sustain prices at current level.

And of course I know we've all hung hopes on all sorts of triggers but the current European solvency crisis, which is being addressed by liquidity measures, can only end badly IMO.

[spiney]

Not me a bear all the way.

I see 15% to 20% nominal falls over the next two years.
with an additional 10% to 15% as a result of inflation over the same time period.

Spiney.

[MinceBalls]

RB, you are becomming the Court Jester of HPC

Realistbear, on 08 December 2010 - 05:51 PM, said:

Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??

[Giordano Bruno]

spiney, on 08 December 2010 - 06:00 PM, said:

Not me a bear all the way.

I see 15% to 20% nominal falls over the next two years.
with an additional 10% to 15% as a result of inflation over the same time period.

Spiney.

likewise, but falls a bit more delayed.

[winkie]

Realistbear, on 08 December 2010 - 05:51 PM, said:

Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??

Land and property is still going down in real terms taking in consideration real inflation....net property yield is low and barely worthwhile in most areas.....less and less can find a foot on the first rung, many on the first rung are not going anywhere soon......wages are stagnant...debt is high...underemployment will not be buying and savings are low or non existent........so where are any rises coming from, all that is left for them is to fall.

[Realistbear]

The Masked Tulip, on 08 December 2010 - 05:55 PM, said:

Made it years ago RB - I blame that scene in Spartacus where Laurence Olivier teaches Tony Curtis about some people enjoying oysters, some enjoying mussels and some enjoying both

Horses for courses. Crassus was apparently drawn to Grecian practices as was, so some say without any documented evidence, common among some of the Roman gentry of that period. As Del Boy would put it, a bit (nods head sideways), you know, a bit...... Rodders responds: Nooo, you don't mean (nods head sideways), do you?

[SeeYouNextTuesday]

You know that quote about not wanting to be a member of any club that would let you join?

Well, now I find out that Realistbear has become a neither I don't want to be part of any club he is a member of, so I shall be moving on shortly.

[Realistbear]

No converts so Far?

The definition of a bear must mean having an expectaion, from here, of at least another 20% down.

10-15% down makes you a Niether IMO. I am going for another 10%.

A bull would see 5% down to even up in the next year or so (there can't be any bulls around).

[Realistbear]

daiking, on 08 December 2010 - 06:10 PM, said:

You know that quote about not wanting to be a member of any club that would let you join?

Well, now I find out that Realistbear has become a neither I don't want to be part of any club he is a member of, so I shall be moving on shortly.

There are three choices and none of them is a club because membership is open to any or all!

Moving on the Bull or Bear and if Bear why so long as a Neither?

This post has been edited by Realistbear: 08 December 2010 - 06:13 PM

[winkie]

Realistbear, on 08 December 2010 - 06:11 PM, said:

No converts so Far?

The definition of a bear must mean having an expectaion, from here, of at least another 20% down.

10-15% down makes you a Niether IMO. I am going for another 10%.

A bull would see 5% down to even up in the next year or so (there can't be any bulls around).

Bull means up...bear means down....neither means you don't know if you are coming or going.

[Realistbear]

Lets see how many are changing?

This post has been edited by Realistbear: 08 December 2010 - 06:32 PM

[twatmangle]

Realistbear, on 08 December 2010 - 06:19 PM, said:

Lets see how many are changing?

Staying neither.