[singlemalt]

A major factor why prices fell and continue falling in the U.S is foreclosure. The U.K government have put in place various measures to prevent this over here. I'm still not convinced that the U.K won't undergo a similar period as the U.S where there are large numbers of repossesions, especially when interest rates start rising. Thus far the governent have simply kicked the can down the road, it was only ever about saving the banking system.

[Bloo Loo]

yeah, that deficit is going up, costs of government are going up, wages are going...nowhere, and unemployment is...rising.

bankers are under the cosh for liquidity, their impaired assets are buying 10-20% of the face value for loans from the central banks...

money is tight and getting tighter....

the asset price argument is mute as they lie about the value anyway.

The sales I see around here are all builders doing them up, as they appear FOR SALE again weeks after the white vans appear. These guys need to sell.

Pretty soon, entitlements are going to go...SMI is an obvious target for the cosh.

Im pretty sure, things are going to get worse after the holidays.

And more bleating from the VIs show they are hurting too.

[Stars]

If you don't own property leave the uk if you can

I'm not sure exactly what shape this is going to take, but i don't think it's going to be that far removed from oliver twist (the version with no dancing or music)

The only hope is the uk population ends up revolting, but my evaluation is that as long nearly most of them feel there is some hope they will be ok, jack', imo most wont move a muscle in real defiance.

[Realistbear]

Wantbell, on 04 December 2010 - 05:50 PM, said:

I see your point, but don't think you have accounted for future employment levels which, in my opinion, is/will be the main factor for HPC. Interest rates, demand, increased LTV, doesn't mean a thing if there's no wage to pay. Current employment levels are misleading and can only get worse.

There is a massive drop in building, public spending (will be), consumer spending, it all points to one thing - fewer jobs.

I think we are moving toward a prol state. Jobs don't matter if you can keep the masses in line with subsistence living and lower expectations. And lower expectations are the new norm. The US is recovering without adding jobs but it is leading into a similar sort of 2 tiered society.

If we were going to lose jobs it would have happened already. The temporary collapse in the banking system has, if anything, saved jobs as it has consolidated the banksters rule. So long as they make money everything is fine and they can leech off the growth in Asia to keep themselves going while the rest simply lapse deeper into poverty. Listen to the goverment and whait is saying: we are all in it together. Austerity is good for you. All very Churchillian if not Dickensian but it only affects the have nots.

[Bloo Loo]

Realistbear, on 04 December 2010 - 06:00 PM, said:

I think we are moving toward a prol state. Jobs don't matter if you can keep the masses in line with subsistence living and lower expectations. And lower expectations are the new norm. The US is recovering without adding jobs but it is leading into a similar sort of 2 tiered society.

If we were going to lose jobs it would have happened already. The temporary collapse in the banking system has, if anything, saved jobs as it has consolidated the banksters rule. So long as they make money everything is fine and they can leech off the growth in Asia to keep themselves going while the rest simply lapse deeper into poverty. Listen to the goverment and whait is saying: we are all in it together. Austerity is good for you. All very Churchillian if not Dickensian but it only affects the have nots.

just wondering how the US is recovering with Unemployment up to 9.8% official and November foodstamps issueance the highest ever.

their deficit is increasing, just about cancelling out the falling real wealth production.

Methinks you been watching too much Doomberg and CNBC

 akcs-www.jpg (31.92K)
Number of downloads: 8

This post has been edited by Bloo Loo: 04 December 2010 - 06:08 PM

[GinAndPlatonic]

doccyboy, on 04 December 2010 - 06:01 PM, said:

You've made me very happy Realistbear. I was waiting for you to turn and then I would know that I can hope for a house .

I'll start looking in the spring if prices keep going down every month as they are at present.

yes of course, the contrarian indicator

[Panda]

Realistbear, on 04 December 2010 - 05:35 PM, said:

I am planning to emigrate in about 5 or 6 years as I cannot see much future in this country.

So you are emigrating to the US, not easy getting a green card, i have relatives who are citizens, i could get one if i tried, but i would rather suffer here, the UK is bad, but the US is in a depression and getting worse, healthcare is terrible. For me, i would choose Australia, the houses are way too expensive but rents are not too bad relative to a local wage due to negative gearing, i would not buy you see.

Realistbear, on 04 December 2010 - 05:28 PM, said:

I am already looking at BTLs overseas to make sure I have a gaff of my own in a few years time. If I buy here I will be skint.

Skint, you must have a STR fund of at least £250k maybe even £350k, you could easily buy a nice pad in Stratford Upon Avon for that? How old are you 57 or 58?

I have to admit i am surprised by your impatience, house will fall, but it will take 6 or so years to the bottom, for a man your age too long i guess, time waits for no man. I guess if you intend to buy then it is a long wait. I do not intend to ever buy house, well i say never, only if they ever fall to 3 times my income ever again. If they do not i will rent for ever.

I always enjoyed your posts, its a shame you have bailed, i think you are wrong, they will bottom but not till the banks are solvent enough to withstand the drops, a long time i guess, maybe 2020.....................

P

[Realistbear]

doccyboy, on 04 December 2010 - 06:01 PM, said:

You've made me very happy Realistbear. I was waiting for you to turn and then I would know that I can hope for a house .

I'll start looking in the spring if prices keep going down every month as they are at present.

Sure they will go down. Maybe as much as another 10%. But who can afford them, even with a 20% drop from the top?

I am still extremely Bearish for the UK overall as HPI will (has alfready) destroy our way of life but it is happening. If prices fall it will because wages, in real terms, are falling. No one gets ahead. We will have a 2 class nation once again and the brief fling the masses had with prosperity from the 1960's to 1990's will be over. Reversion to norm coming soon.

[the flying pig]

Realistbear, on 04 December 2010 - 05:28 PM, said:

...I am already looking at BTLs overseas to make sure I have a gaff of my own in a few years time. If I buy here I will be skint.

but aren't your pro-pwoperdee 'arguments' nearly all UK specific? if so why rush to buy overseas? do you just mean you want to emigrate soonish?

This post has been edited by the flying pig: 04 December 2010 - 06:11 PM

[Bloo Loo]

Realistbear, on 04 December 2010 - 06:10 PM, said:

Sure they will go down. Maybe as much as another 10%. But who can afford them, even with a 20% drop from the top?

I am still extremely Bearish for the UK overall as HPI will (has alfready) destroy our way of life but it is happening. If prices fall it will because wages, in real terms, are falling. No one gets ahead. We will have a 2 class nation once again and the brief fling the masses had with prosperity from the 1960's to 1990's will be over. Reversion to norm coming soon.

thats a good point..clearly, BTL CAN afford them...no deposit, IO, its all in their favour...and growth...its all ours for the taking...I dont know why I didnt see it before.

[Panda]

RB.........................This is a right CAN OF WORMS, you have opened..............


RB the resident BULL........................Wheres DADDYBEAR and SIBLEY gone?

[Realistbear]

Panda, on 04 December 2010 - 06:09 PM, said:

So you are emigrating to the US, not easy getting a green card, i have relatives who are citizens, i could get one if i tried, but i would rather suffer here, the UK is bad, but the US is in a depression and getting worse, healthcare is terrible. For me, i would choose Australia, the houses are way too expensive but rents are not too bad relative to a local wage due to negative gearing, i would not buy you see.




Skint, you must have a STR fund of at least £250k maybe even £350k, you could easily buy a nice pad in Stratford Upon Avon for that? How old are you 57 or 58?

I have to admit i am surprised by your impatience, house will fall, but it will take 6 or so years to the bottom, for a man your age too long i guess, time waits for no man. I guess if you intend to buy then it is a long wait. I do not intend to ever buy house, well i say never, only if they ever fall to 3 times my income ever again. If they do not i will rent for ever.

I always enjoyed your posts, its a shame you have bailed, i think you are wrong, they will bottom but not till the banks are solvent enough to withstand the drops, a long time i guess, maybe 2020.....................

P

I have ARC-1 status which is a virtual guarantee of a green card. Healthcare is an issue but at retirement you get government catastrophic coverage and can pay for top-up insurance which is relatively affordable given everything else is cheaper.

The US is more extreme than us with booms and busts. They recover quickly and the food stamp thing is no different to our massive welfare system that keeps people going in 30k pa rents etc.

I sold my house in CA in 2003 and have been 7 years in rentals and its enough. I know I have to rent for another 6 years but having a house bought and paid for in a nice place to retire gives you a sense of hope! It will also serve as a holiday home closer to retirement.

My STR fund is big enough to buy a house here but it will leave nothing for retirement which comes up in 6 years or so--at least that is my target date to drop out of full time work.

Age is a big factor. 2020 is a long way off. I just see this country reverting to its long term norm of a two tiered society with the landlord class being preserved by government policy.

This post has been edited by Realistbear: 04 December 2010 - 06:18 PM

[Pent Up]

Someones hacked his account surely?

Snap out of it man!

[Realistbear]

the flying pig, on 04 December 2010 - 06:11 PM, said:

but aren't your pro-pwoperdee 'arguments' nearly all UK specific? if so why rush to buy overseas? do you just mean you want to emigrate soonish?

I think SoCal is close to a bottom. Down about 40% from the top in many places.

Yes--most of my points are UK specific. My parents emigrated from the UK in the mid 1960s for the same reasons I am seeing repeating today.

The falling house prices are not going to make property ownership any easier. That is the point. Eveything else is tied to property and when it falls wages go down with it as the economy suffers. A cheap house is not cheap if you are on half pay etc. The deck is rigged in this coutnry and it has been that way for centuries. That is why young people koff to Canada, US, OZ and Kiwiland. Its an escape from frustration.

The good days of easy money on property speculation may be over but a different phase is beginning. The rise of the landlord class and these are the parasites who CAN afford to buy whether the market is falling or not. Rents are rising to offset the falls and the best we can hope for, maybe 20% down from here, is not enough to stop the BTL juggernaut.

This post has been edited by Realistbear: 04 December 2010 - 06:29 PM

[_w_]

Panda, on 04 December 2010 - 05:16 PM, said:

Whats happened the sites uber bear, gone from bear to neither, currently ramping BTL.....................................Never thought i would see it?