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Realistbear - Whats Happened - Bull


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#1 Panda

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:16 PM

Whats happened the sites uber bear, gone from bear to neither, currently ramping BTL.....................................Never thought i would see it?
As Sir Mervyn - One Of The Greatest Financial Incompetents Ever said to the incompetent politician at the enquiry "Why don't you just listen you dolt and one of these days between us we might just get it right - or not"

Now these rolled up debt thingy's and the banks that hold them are pretty much worthless, how much would you pay for a case of wine knowing that one of the bottles contained poison? Game Over.

#2 Realistbear

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:28 PM

Whats happened the sites uber bear, gone from bear to neither, currently ramping BTL.....................................Never thought i would see it?



Apart from several months in a row of small declines in prices I canot see a significant drop in house prices in this country.

The government is using all of its powers to prevent a crash including holding IR below prudent levels given pending inflation, maintaining a free flow of immigrants from both inside and outside the EU, maintaining a hands off approach to the return of predatory lending and focusing on the City and select exporters to keep things going. The two tiered society, rich and poor, that was accelerated under Brown will be the norm going forward and it will not impact our economy if the vast majority are priced out of owning a home. As the Balls creature would sum it up: so what?

If there was going to be a crash it would have happened shortly after the rest of the world had theirs. The US went down 3 or 4 years ago and are still dropping. Ireland speaks for itself. Spain is sinking fast despite their denial and claims that the market is only down 20%. Portugal is similarly being rocked. But not here. We have, at best, returned to 2007-08 levels and that is where they will probably stay give or take 10% either way.

The return of BTL will slow down any falls as the banks are gaining confidence that the market is not going to fall by much. Hence the 95% LTVs emerging again.

Too many people with too much money chasing very few houses is not a good formula for a significant crash. Add a strong and resilent economy and it is not looking good. This country is going to be the most miserable place on earth for all but the BTL brigade and others ho have the cash and resources to be part of the new upper classes.

I am already looking at BTLs overseas to make sure I have a gaff of my own in a few years time. If I buy here I will be skint.

Edited by Realistbear, 04 December 2010 - 05:31 PM.

CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#3 satch

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:31 PM

Apart from several months in a row of small declines in prices I canot see a significant drop in house prices in this country.

The government is using all of its powers to prevent a crash including holding IR below prudent levels given pending inflation, maintaining a free flow of immigrants from both inside and outside the EU, maintaining a hands off approach to the return of predatory lending and focusing on the City and select exporters to keep things going. The two tiered society, rich and poor, that was accelerated under Brown will be the norm going forward and it will not impact our economy if the vast majority are priced out of owning a home. As the Balls creature would sum it up: so what?

If there was going to be a crash it would have happened shortly after the rest of the world had theirs. The US went down 3 or 4 years ago and are still dropping. Ireland speaks for itself. Spain is sinking fast despite their denial and claims that the market is only down 20%. Portugal is similarly being rocked. But not here. We have, at best, returned to 2007-08 levels and that is where they will probably stay give or taxke 10% either way.

The return of BTL will slow down any falls as the banks are gaining confidence that the market is not going to fall by much. Hence the 95% LTVs emerging again.

Too many people with too much money chasing very few houses is not a good formula for a significant crash. Add a strong and resilent economy and it is not looking good. This country is going to be the most miserable place on earth for all but the BTL brigade and others ho have the cash and resources to be part of the new upper classes.

I am already looking at BTLs overseas to make sure I have a gaff of my own in a few years time. If I buy here I will be skint.

So Sibley was right all along .... the government will not let house prices fall.
George Osborne July 2013; 'I don't think in the current environment a house price bubble is going to emerge in 18 months or three years.' Mark Carney September 2013; ' ... there has been an improvement in prices and activity (talking about the housing market) Osborne to cabinet as quoted in the Indie October 2013; "Hopefully we will get a little housing boom & everyone will be happy"

Osborne says; “Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed.”

George Osborne December 2008; “Savers and pensioners are the forgotten victims … They are innocent bystanders and it’s simply not good enough for the Government to walk on by."

In his 1997 Budget speech, Gordon Brown said, "I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the future". He went on to say that he did not want a return to "instability, speculation and negative equity" of the 1980's and 1990's.

#4 Harry Monk

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:33 PM

That rather seems to conflict with the predictions made in part 1 of your signature?
.........................................................................................................................................................................
"Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defence against a homicidal maniac." -George Orwell.

#5 Democorruptcy

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:33 PM

They have broken him.

Attached Files


Edited by Redhat Sly, 04 December 2010 - 05:36 PM.

Democorruptcy
If you say "Democorruptcy" quickly, it sounds a bit like "Democracy". In a "Democracy" people vote for politicians who represent their interests. In the UK's "Democorruptcy" people can only vote for expense fiddling thieving MPs who are in the hip pocket of big business and the finance sector.

Governbankment
A "Governbankment" is a Government that has no line between itself and it's banks. The UK's Governbankment does policies to enrich bankers at the expense of the public. The more money people are encouraged to borrow, the more money bankers make.

The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is stealing from savers to make them pay for crimes by bankers. Via lower interest on savings, all the bank fines for PPI, LIBOR and interest rates swaps are now being paid by savers so that bankers can keep pocketing bonuses.

"We need to make a really big change: from an economy built on debt to an economy built on savings" - David Camoron Jan 2009
"Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed" - George Osborne Jan 2009
- So what do Camoron & Osborne do? Print money and leave interest rates at 0.5% when inflation is over 5%

If it is asserted that civilization is a real advance in the condition of man -- and I think that it is, though only the wise improve their advantages -- it must be shown that it has produced better dwellings without making them more costly; and the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
http://classiclit.ab...en-Part-2_4.htm

I want to tell you my secret now.... I see debt people

#6 Realistbear

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:35 PM

So Sibley was right all along .... the government will not let house prices fall.



I think so. They cannot afford to let house prices fall. They have the ability to pull it off by sacrificing the majority fofr the benefit of the few who are not priced out.

I am planning to emigrate in about 5 or 6 years as I cannot see much future in this country.

Brown pulled it off. He gave us a boom and there is no bust in sight. When I say "bust" I mean a collapse in property prices of at least 30%. We may get, at best, 20% down from peak but how does that help the majority who are priced out?
CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#7 satch

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:36 PM

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


They have broken him.

The VIs; 'How many fingers do you see RB?'

RB; 'Five, Five, I can see five fingers ...'
George Osborne July 2013; 'I don't think in the current environment a house price bubble is going to emerge in 18 months or three years.' Mark Carney September 2013; ' ... there has been an improvement in prices and activity (talking about the housing market) Osborne to cabinet as quoted in the Indie October 2013; "Hopefully we will get a little housing boom & everyone will be happy"

Osborne says; “Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed.”

George Osborne December 2008; “Savers and pensioners are the forgotten victims … They are innocent bystanders and it’s simply not good enough for the Government to walk on by."

In his 1997 Budget speech, Gordon Brown said, "I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the future". He went on to say that he did not want a return to "instability, speculation and negative equity" of the 1980's and 1990's.

#8 Realistbear

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:38 PM

That rather seems to conflict with the predictions made in part 1 of your signature?



Crimbo 2010 prediction will probably include a forecast for a 10% YoY drop in house prices, Sterling maintaining $1.60/65 and Euro with a very uncertain future. Gold will probably hover between $1300 and $1500 but not really go anywhere as there will be bigger returns in BTL.

The banks are too big to fail and they will be the guarantee that property prices will not fall. The government have seen what happened in the US where property was allowed to drop and they will not go there.
CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#9 Democorruptcy

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:39 PM

I think so. They cannot afford to let house prices fall. They have the ability to pull it off by sacrificing the majority fofr the benefit of the few who are not priced out.

I am planning to emigrate in about 5 or 6 years as I cannot see much future in this country.

Brown pulled it off. He gave us a boom and there is no bust in sight. When I say "bust" I mean a collapse in property prices of at least 30%. We may get, at best, 20% down from peak but how does that help the majority who are priced out?


Where are you going?
Democorruptcy
If you say "Democorruptcy" quickly, it sounds a bit like "Democracy". In a "Democracy" people vote for politicians who represent their interests. In the UK's "Democorruptcy" people can only vote for expense fiddling thieving MPs who are in the hip pocket of big business and the finance sector.

Governbankment
A "Governbankment" is a Government that has no line between itself and it's banks. The UK's Governbankment does policies to enrich bankers at the expense of the public. The more money people are encouraged to borrow, the more money bankers make.

The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is stealing from savers to make them pay for crimes by bankers. Via lower interest on savings, all the bank fines for PPI, LIBOR and interest rates swaps are now being paid by savers so that bankers can keep pocketing bonuses.

"We need to make a really big change: from an economy built on debt to an economy built on savings" - David Camoron Jan 2009
"Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed" - George Osborne Jan 2009
- So what do Camoron & Osborne do? Print money and leave interest rates at 0.5% when inflation is over 5%

If it is asserted that civilization is a real advance in the condition of man -- and I think that it is, though only the wise improve their advantages -- it must be shown that it has produced better dwellings without making them more costly; and the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
http://classiclit.ab...en-Part-2_4.htm

I want to tell you my secret now.... I see debt people

#10 NEO72

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:42 PM

RB I asked you this on another thread but didn't get a reply so will ask again:
What have this g'ment actually DONE to encourage hpi?
What COULD they do?
If the answers to both questions is the same then yes they are determined to prop up prices.
IMO they are not.

#11 Darkman

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:42 PM

Apart from several months in a row of small declines in prices I canot see a significant drop in house prices in this country.

I'm beginning to think you're right. It's a damn shame for so many people in this country.

I too intend to leave the UK, perhaps late next year. I just can't see a decent future here :ph34r:

#12 Harry Monk

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:43 PM

Crimbo 2010 prediction will probably include a forecast for a 10% YoY drop in house prices, Sterling maintaining $1.60/65 and Euro with a very uncertain future. Gold will probably hover between $1300 and $1500 but not really go anywhere as there will be bigger returns in BTL.


I don't understand. I buy a BTL for £90,000 and let it out for £550 pcm. In 2011 it grosses £6,600 in rental yield but falls by 10%, or £9,000, in value.

I make that a loss, not a return.
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#13 Realistbear

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:49 PM

Where are you going?



Looking at condos in San Diego, California. A typical condo in my old stomping grounds in Carlsbad goes for around $250k these days, down from around $400k at the top. You can rent these out reasonably easily for around $1200 pm. Property taxes are not too bad at 1.25% of the purchase price locked in for life (Prop 13 in CA prevents hikes in property taxes above 2% p.a.).

The weather in SoCal if perfect, much like Spain but most people still speak English. Looked at Spain but found most Brits down there were a bit depressed and spent their time looking forward to cocktail hour. I wouldn't qualify for Oz or NZ and I have friends and relativs Stateside which makes immigration easy.

I am a bit sad about it as I genuinely wanted to make a long term go of it back here. But I can see living a substandard existence with everything gone on a house. I find the UK extremely corrupt compared with the US--at least at a local level where things impact the way you live.

This country is severly degraded IMO. Brown did a number on it for 10 years and there is no sign of any reversal coming from DC. When DC mentioned how the world cup would go well here as visitors would feel at home in multi-cultural Britain I saw that as a highly symbolic admission as to the end of the country I once knew. The US, especially West Coast, still has some optimism going and they will recover and turn East for trade. CA is still number 8 in the world GDP-wise so its doing okay. Their housing bust is very healthy and I plan to take full advanatge of the low prices before they start to turn around.

6 more years to do here so I will have to help out some BTLer for awhile longer.

For the rest of the bears on here I think I would seriously consider bailing.

Edited by Realistbear, 04 December 2010 - 05:56 PM.

CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.

#14 Wantbell

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:50 PM

I see your point, but don't think you have accounted for future employment levels which, in my opinion, is/will be the main factor for HPC. Interest rates, demand, increased LTV, doesn't mean a thing if there's no wage to pay. Current employment levels are misleading and can only get worse.

There is a massive drop in building, public spending (will be), consumer spending, it all points to one thing - fewer jobs.

#15 Realistbear

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Posted 04 December 2010 - 05:53 PM

RB I asked you this on another thread but didn't get a reply so will ask again:
What have this g'ment actually DONE to encourage hpi?
What COULD they do?
If the answers to both questions is the same then yes they are determined to prop up prices.
IMO they are not.



The government recognise the importance of HPI to prop up the service sector. They keep IR artficially low, refrain from regulating bad lending practices and avoid penalsing multipel hlomeowners and BTL by keeping CGT below top rate of tax (28% kicks in next year--if at all). Immigration, of the unrestrainit therefof, helps fuel the level of demand. Russian Mafia types are enouraged to keep country hizes and the West End market going by allowing them non-dom status. I am sure there are a few more ways the government encourage our number one industry......
CRIMBOCASTS for y/e 2013

1. The Euro will have another bad year and may hit parity with the US$ before the end of the year.
2. The Pound will not move much against the dollar (range 1.47-1.60) but is likely to regain a lot of ground verses the Euro which may not survive. US $ will be a safe bet, especially ST bonds and large caps.
3. Stocks should finish moderately higher than 2012 barring a war with Korea and Iran.
4. Gold will not be flying to the moon (again) and will bitterly disappoint (again) any who got in during the run up in 2011.
5. House prices: Flattish to up single digits overall..
6. Not much in the way of inflation again this year--those who forecast hyperinflation will be proven wrong (again--as in 2011 and 2012)
7. Could see a snap GE after the May elections which will be the worst result EVER for Dave. UKIP continue to make headway and will be number 3 before year end.




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