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#1 Fawkandles

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Posted 24 November 2010 - 10:28 AM

Hello

My first thread on this forum, and I have decided to focus it on a subject that coincides with my get-a-house strategy.

We have 12-24 months for the UK housing bubble to (slowly) burst according to the consensus view on this forum (please correct if I have mis-gleaned), and I intend to save up a hefty deposit in the meantime through trading high-risk oil and gas shares on the AIM. I'm doing well so far, rising from a 1000 starting pot when BP spilled their undevestating light oil, I now have a 7k stash, having topped up every payday on an average income plus 50% growth (ish).

I am either good or lucky - too early to tell, so will assume the latter and gather tps from any other oil investors on this site :)

So whats brewin'? Whats the next XEL? Anyone else in CAZA / VOG / DES / NPE / or anything else on my watchlist? This sub-forum should be buzzing with such threads given that our (housing) time is near! :lol:

#2 Fawkandles

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 10:28 AM

Regarding TA and FA, I am currently reading Trading For Dummies, so can get back to you once I fininsh it!

My general tactic is to find a news-driven share with a relatively low risk, decent funding, get in before the herd, wait for news. I have not sold yet, but it has worked in XEL, DES, CAZA, and AVN. XEL especially :lol:

I can't afford to trade a lot in a given share given my holding size and the cost of trading - but intent to do it more once I have more money to play with. I did with XEL successfully, and dont want to try again in case I mess it up. I did what I thought was a risky top-up at 104p :D

#3 Fawkandles

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 12:26 PM

So are you saying your profits are based on current market prices or on banked profits?

Regarding trading costs, they are very low now and you can be in and out of a share as long as you cover dealing costs which on a 2.5K deal is now only 1.3%. Try the fool.

Try 'mastering the trade' by James Carter. I've three book on the go currently, if you are interested give me a shout and I'll post the titles.

You could have a look at BLVN but you are going to have to be quick on the turn for that one and of course GKP.


Will add that book to my xmas list. Thanks.

You sort of prove my point about dealing costs. 2.5k trades are out of my league. I do 700-1000 for one holding, and doubled up on XEL as I was confident about it. I will do more trading once I have 7+ holdings in a 10k+ portfolio. Generally I need 5% growth to break even on the spread and costs. I use Barclays which has a deal fee of 13 (iirc). A little pricier than some, but I really like their service.

My 'profits' are current paper profits :o and mostly made up from XEL. I have actually banked/diversified about 20% so far, and the other 55% is all down to XEL paper profits.


What is you XEL exit strategy? My hunch is that there will be a big news gap after winter until the production starts late in 2011, so plan to sell after upgrades and CPR etc. Hopefully Feb 2011? 6?? 10???

I am still confident about flow rates.

#4 Fawkandles

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 12:44 PM

Oooooh just realised you are the same bulltraderpt on the iii site! :lol:

I would post there too but they no longer allow new people to post unless you phone them up and convince them you're not a scammer.

Shame. I was looking forward to posting my trades and adding several zeroes like everyone else :P

#5 OzzMosiz

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 01:12 PM

Turned 3500 into 14000 thanks to GKP.
Regal Petroleum are in discussions about a buyout and have several interested parties, SP currently 18p, year low/high is 11.35 - 103, so taking a punt there.


RRR and RGM (mining) look promising in the long run too.

Edited by OzzMosiz, 25 November 2010 - 01:12 PM.

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#6 Fawkandles

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 01:12 PM

Thanks for your thoughts. Surely selling after positive flow rates would be folly given that others will be waiting to buy AFTER the risky event? (unless you mean such people will buy in over the 3 days you mention). Noted nonetheless. I bought RKH before flow, saw it go up 60%, then straight back down again!

If I sell XEL for over 600p I'm gunna buy an engagement ring for my gf :)


Buy 'shame' I mean its a shame iii prevent new posters signing up to the board. My noob drivel may not be missed, but what if someone useful wants to sign up?

#7 Fawkandles

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 01:21 PM

Turned 3500 into 14000 thanks to GKP.
Regal Petroleum are in discussions about a buyout and have several interested parties, SP currently 18p, year low/high is 11.35 - 103, so taking a punt there.


RRR and RGM (mining) look promising in the long run too.


Noted. Added the miners to my watch list. Regarding GKP, its too political for my liking so stayed out. Captain Hindsight says I'm an idiot, but no regrets. I remember having a choice between NPE, XEL and GKP in early September, and picked XEL.

As for BLVN, Regal, etc, I couldn't if I wanted to. No spare funds til xmas payday or til I sell DES. Plan is to sell on sentiment next week or hold if it looks like a biggun (thats what SHE said).

#8 OzzMosiz

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 01:28 PM

Noted. Added the miners to my watch list. Regarding GKP, its too political for my liking so stayed out. Captain Hindsight says I'm an idiot, but no regrets. I remember having a choice between NPE, XEL and GKP in early September, and picked XEL.

As for BLVN, Regal, etc, I couldn't if I wanted to. No spare funds til xmas payday or til I sell DES. Plan is to sell on sentiment next week or hold if it looks like a biggun (thats what SHE said).


Keep an eye on THR - has broken out a bit yesterday, if it retraces to under 2p possibly worth a buy,

FAWK - I bought RKH at 140 - sold at 190, was gutted when it hit 500 a few weeks later :P

Edited by OzzMosiz, 25 November 2010 - 01:28 PM.

WRITE TO YOUR MP @ http://www.writetothem.com/



There are 10^11 stars in the galaxy. That used to be a huge number. But it's only a hundred billion. It's less than the national deficit! We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.

~ Richard Feynman (1918 to 1988)

#9 Fawkandles

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 01:40 PM

Keep an eye on THR - has broken out a bit yesterday, if it retraces to under 2p possibly worth a buy,

FAWK - I bought RKH at 140 - sold at 190, was gutted when it hit 500 a few weeks later :P


Its not a mistake if you learn from it - thats what I tell myself. I'm yet to make any selling mistakes as I haven't sold anything other than quick escapes from bad buys!

#10 Fawkandles

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 01:54 PM

Do you think that will ever come about though? :unsure:


I'm currently just in profit territory, and very disgruntled with the company, so plan to escape shortly. Its a risk, but I suspect it will go up a bit as the rumors start circulating. I can't see any bad rumors happening given that there IS oil there.

Time will tell!

#11 Fawkandles

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 02:12 PM

It depends on your times scales though.




This is the issue for me. We don't know all the time scales.

Early Dec - Flow results (assuming good)

Mid Dec - 'other news' such as upgrade estimates?

Jan - Some sort of forward looking statement of intent

Feb - Aug NOTHING

Late 2011 - start production



Its the big gap that scares me. What will happen with this extra oil they found? Does it need its own flow test or is that being done now too?

#12 OzzMosiz

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Posted 25 November 2010 - 02:14 PM

Ignore FT Alphaville, they suggested shorting GKP at 12p, and continually dismiss GKP as one for "mug punters" - it stands now at 1.79, they still diss it.
3.9billion oils of barrel minimum.
WRITE TO YOUR MP @ http://www.writetothem.com/



There are 10^11 stars in the galaxy. That used to be a huge number. But it's only a hundred billion. It's less than the national deficit! We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.

~ Richard Feynman (1918 to 1988)

#13 martingale

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Posted 26 November 2010 - 09:20 AM

Speculative one:
Bahamas Petroleum Company
http://www.bpcplc.co...ons/share-price

#14 Fawkandles

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Posted 26 November 2010 - 09:53 AM

Speculative one:
Bahamas Petroleum Company
http://www.bpcplc.co...ons/share-price


My instinct says I would be too late. What is its near-term upside/dowside etc?

#15 Fawkandles

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Posted 26 November 2010 - 10:00 AM

In other news XEL is ticking up nicely this morning :D B)

Never been so excited about some numbers on a screen! (Other than reaching 2k rating in WoW 2v2 arena :lol: )




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