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#151 Lagarde's Drift

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 03:52 PM

What's your view on TPL LD please?


Tethys? Only briefly glanced at them so no opinion really. The numbers are big, but aren't they always? Central Asia not my area of knowledge, I only know a bit about the Falklands and the Middle East. Maybe I'll have a look this weekend, am always interested in new things, and will post my initial thoughts for discussion.

#152 Lagarde's Drift

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Posted 20 July 2012 - 04:04 PM

I agree - I cannot understand the valuations on those falkland shares. Extremely difficult area to drill that must chew through your funding.


Broad brush tarring there. A couple of the NFB oilies are a stonking buy at these prices, the SFB very much less so. I agree FOGL and BOR have been overpriced for much (all?) of their campaign, hence stayed away from them.

p.s. NFB is analogous to the North Sea, and in some respects is easier to work in.

#153 Davetolbooth

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 02:35 PM

Broad brush tarring there. A couple of the NFB oilies are a stonking buy at these prices, the SFB very much less so. I agree FOGL and BOR have been overpriced for much (all?) of their campaign, hence stayed away from them.

p.s. NFB is analogous to the North Sea, and in some respects is easier to work in.


Ok - fair comment.



But look at it this way. There's a huge difference between an exploration company and a producing oillie. GKP have humungous proven reserves and moving towards production. The shares are curently 220 based on reserves of 13.5 billion barrels. Whereas, the Falkland oilies have......nothing, zilch, nada. But their shares are trading at a premium.


The problem with GKP is getting the oil to market. I predict we will see 1400 - 1800 per share when the big boys buy the company out. And I reckon it will happen sooner than most investors realise. Infact, I predict that the negotiations are currently underway, and the auction will be between China and American Oil Companies.

#154 Davetolbooth

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 02:39 PM

If you are interested, I've a link to some info which I shall be having a look at.

From a chart perspective, under 30p looks to be a screaming buy as there is resistance there.



The company (Tethys) will need to raise funds and make a placement soon. I'd hang-on for a while. They have huge reserves of oil and gas, but it is in dangerous bandit country.


Another one to keep an eye on is CLON. The BODs have spent their way therough 1.5 million over the year, and down to 500K. They too will need to raise cash, which will see the shares fall to 2p or below. Then pile in. They are next to Tullow's Jubilee field. The shares will motor when they get ratification with Ghana. Definitely worth buying, say 100,000, and waiting.

Edited by Davetolbooth, 23 July 2012 - 02:41 PM.


#155 Lagarde's Drift

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 04:21 PM

But look at it this way. There's a huge difference between an exploration company and a producing oillie. GKP have humungous proven reserves and moving towards production. The shares are curently 220 based on reserves of 13.5 billion barrels. Whereas, the Falkland oilies have......nothing, zilch, nada. But their shares are trading at a premium.


Correct. Big difference between exploration and producer. Incorrect, as in the Falkland oilies have oil, loads of it - I think you just have to look closer.

p.s. GKP do not have reserves!

The company (Tethys) will need to raise funds and make a placement soon. I'd hang-on for a while. They have huge reserves of oil and gas, but it is in dangerous bandit country.


I've not had the time to look at TPL - was enjoying the sun too much. But yes, cash requirement is a big factor in appraising junior oil E&P companies.

Edit: to add, also producing in itself is not the end-factor - how much is the company being paid for each barrel? For example with Genel and the tidbit that GKP is producing - what is the payment?

Edited by Lagarde's Drift, 23 July 2012 - 04:23 PM.


#156 OzzMosiz

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 11:19 AM

In regards to GKP, no there are no reserves yet, but OIP figures keep increasing. Some suggest that some of the zones will be linked and if that is true this will be one massive find. I wonder if that's why reserves are not yet released (and because they want the Excalibur court case out of the way first).

My prediction is GKP will be trading at over 6 a share come 2013, if they get taken out, anything north of 10 would be cheap.
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#157 Davetolbooth

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 08:30 AM

Not so sure about that. Did you see the recent **** up?



Tell us more mate. I've not heard that one.


Excal court case is underway. Cannot see it going 12 weeks though. Excaliburs arguments seem week and the judge told their legal team to go away and do some more homework! Not a good start.



I've taken two profits from GKP. It's one volatile beast. But missed the last drop, so stuck on a spike at the moment.




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