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http://www.nama.ie/P...e29Sept2010.pdf
Nama Northern Ireland read it and weep
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#2
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 04:01 PM
PJ1977, on 29 September 2010 - 03:52 PM, said:
all i get is damaged file does it work for everyone else?
rock on!
#3
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 04:05 PM
R + R, on 29 September 2010 - 04:01 PM, said:
all i get is damaged file does it work for everyone else?
rock on!
rock on!
Works for me. Have to read it yet though.
#4
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 04:10 PM
Bill Poster, on 29 September 2010 - 04:05 PM, said:
Works for me. Have to read it yet though.
beebs take on it
http://www.bbc.co.uk...reland-11438349
rock on!
#5
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 04:32 PM
R + R, on 29 September 2010 - 04:10 PM, said:
Nothing too contraversial there.
#6
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 04:49 PM
Bill Poster, on 29 September 2010 - 04:32 PM, said:
Nothing too contraversial there.
unless you are a developer with very very expensive land
whih is going to return to grazin the bullocks
rock on!
#7
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 04:51 PM
PJ1977, on 29 September 2010 - 03:52 PM, said:
I was looking forward to a "catastrophe" and a "fire sale". Might happen yet.
#8
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 05:25 PM
Quote
Mr Stewart said estimates suggest that the normal market for land sales in NI was about £100m in the years 2000 to 2005. But that spiked to £750m in the years 2006 and 2007.
Imho we already had a bubble in 2000 to 2005 , after that I think historians will have to make up a new word to describe what happened
"You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out." Warren Buffet
"We've become a nation of con men, living by selling double-glazing to each other." Fred Dibnah
" You don't like your job, you don't strike. You go in every day and do it really half-assed. That's the American way. " Homer Simpson
Tony Soprano " Sil, break it down for 'em. What two business have traditionally been recession-proof since time immemorial? "
Silvio Dante " Certain aspects of show business and our thing. "
"We've become a nation of con men, living by selling double-glazing to each other." Fred Dibnah
" You don't like your job, you don't strike. You go in every day and do it really half-assed. That's the American way. " Homer Simpson
Tony Soprano " Sil, break it down for 'em. What two business have traditionally been recession-proof since time immemorial? "
Silvio Dante " Certain aspects of show business and our thing. "
#9
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 06:22 PM
Malthus, on 29 September 2010 - 05:25 PM, said:
Imho we already had a bubble in 2000 to 2005 , after that I think historians will have to make up a new word to describe what happened
From what I can see there are three main points to be drawn:
Nama's impact on the residential Market will be minimal as we don't have anything like the stock overhang that the Republic does.
The impact on the commercial market is much, much greater. Nama will hold loans against properties which represent five times the annual transaction value of the entire NI commercial market. Given that Nama wants to exit in 10 years it immediatley becomes the prime force in that market. If they're aiming for disposals who will buy? My guess is that the sort of institutions on the other end of recent Sam Morrison deals will figure very largely.
Some of the more remote landbanks will probably have their value written down by 85% plus and end up as agricultural land.
#10
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 06:36 PM
PJ1977, on 29 September 2010 - 06:22 PM, said:
From what I can see there are three main points to be drawn:
Nama's impact on the residential Market will be minimal as we don't have anything like the stock overhang that the Republic does.
The impact on the commercial market is much, much greater. Nama will hold loans against properties which represent five times the annual transaction value of the entire NI commercial market. Given that Nama wants to exit in 10 years it immediatley becomes the prime force in that market. If they're aiming for disposals who will buy? My guess is that the sort of institutions on the other end of recent Sam Morrison deals will figure very largely.
Some of the more remote landbanks will probably have their value written down by 85% plus and end up as agricultural land.
Nama's impact on the residential Market will be minimal as we don't have anything like the stock overhang that the Republic does.
The impact on the commercial market is much, much greater. Nama will hold loans against properties which represent five times the annual transaction value of the entire NI commercial market. Given that Nama wants to exit in 10 years it immediatley becomes the prime force in that market. If they're aiming for disposals who will buy? My guess is that the sort of institutions on the other end of recent Sam Morrison deals will figure very largely.
Some of the more remote landbanks will probably have their value written down by 85% plus and end up as agricultural land.
Also bad news for all those involved in the agricultural land bubble
"You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out." Warren Buffet
"We've become a nation of con men, living by selling double-glazing to each other." Fred Dibnah
" You don't like your job, you don't strike. You go in every day and do it really half-assed. That's the American way. " Homer Simpson
Tony Soprano " Sil, break it down for 'em. What two business have traditionally been recession-proof since time immemorial? "
Silvio Dante " Certain aspects of show business and our thing. "
"We've become a nation of con men, living by selling double-glazing to each other." Fred Dibnah
" You don't like your job, you don't strike. You go in every day and do it really half-assed. That's the American way. " Homer Simpson
Tony Soprano " Sil, break it down for 'em. What two business have traditionally been recession-proof since time immemorial? "
Silvio Dante " Certain aspects of show business and our thing. "
#11
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 09:07 PM
PJ1977, on 29 September 2010 - 06:22 PM, said:
Some of the more remote landbanks will probably have their value written down by 85% plus and end up as agricultural land.
Oh dear, and once agricultural land subsidies start to disappear from 2013...
#12
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 09:22 PM
Nothing more to say than that!
Stultior stulto fuisti, qui tabellis crederes!
Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumoured by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.
Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumoured by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.
#13
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Posted 29 September 2010 - 10:10 PM
PJ1977, on 29 September 2010 - 06:22 PM, said:
The impact on the commercial market is much, much greater. Nama will hold loans against properties which represent five times the annual transaction value of the entire NI commercial market. Given that Nama wants to exit in 10 years it immediatley becomes the prime force in that market. If they're aiming for disposals who will buy?
the security does not necessarily have to be sold, merely refinanced. More likely if there is even a modest recovery in the Market. We are still in e credit crunch. If finance availibility was half way normal some liquidity would return and the Market could establish a pattern and some confidence return
#15
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Posted 02 October 2010 - 05:28 PM
Bill Poster, on 29 September 2010 - 10:10 PM, said:
the security does not necessarily have to be sold, merely refinanced. More likely if there is even a modest recovery in the Market. We are still in e credit crunch. If finance availibility was half way normal some liquidity would return and the Market could establish a pattern and some confidence return
The difficulty with refins is that the bubble values and lending practices are not coming back so therefore the developer/ investor is still going to have to come up with a lot of cash to reach an acceptable LTV ratio.