[Clueless_Academic]

I was surprised to see World Population now at about 6.9 Billion People !! We were only looking at 5 Billion 20 years ago !!

What are your toughts on 'Carrying Capacity' of the planet ? Any cause & effect (re population growth) for increasing prices in commodities over say next 10 years or can we continue increasing production to cater for these 7 - 10 Billion people and keep staple food prices / water/ energy / etc / at low levels ??



Have also attached a youtube video which shows population growth over last 2000 years + extrapolated a few years into future.

My link

I'm asking your ideas as there's been a lot of speculation on this forum (and other sites) on decline of 'Western' powers (and standards of living) to benefit of BRIC developing nations of Brazil, Russia, China, and India.

Does this mean a certain decline of 'European' (and American Anglo Saxon) culture and values over say next 50 years ?



However, if you look at above graph you see a correlation between population growth and Industrial Innovation / Energy Use. Thus, if we can't provide enough low cost "resources", can we expect Global Population to maintain levels of 7 Billion+ over next century or do you expect reduced population to level seen in 1800's ??

i.e. will an Increasing Global Population cause prices of items & commodities to keep inflating to infinity (and Governments keep inflating money supply) OR will a deflation set in as consumers can't afford products leading to a decline in population due to lower living standards ??

My main question is, can we maintain our UK / European living standards even though Global Population is increasing ?

[SarahBell]

David Attenborough said that the world population had double during his time as a broadcaster.

[Pick It Down]

I thought we'd got rid of the neo-Malthusians a few weeks ago?

http://wattsupwithth...red-of-malthus/

Not only are there more mouths to feed, but they are also getting better fed on all continents.

[Tired of Waiting]

Sorry. Duplicate post.

This post has been edited by Tired of Waiting: 19 September 2010 - 02:17 PM

[Tired of Waiting]

Clueless_Academic, on 19 September 2010 - 12:26 PM, said:

(...)
My main question is, can we maintain our UK / European living standards even though Global Population is increasing ?

This video is brilliant. Highly recommended. Impressive moving charts.





And a more technical lecture here: http://www.ted.com/t..._ever_seen.html

This post has been edited by Tired of Waiting: 19 September 2010 - 03:47 PM

[porca misèria]

Pick It Down, on 19 September 2010 - 01:54 PM, said:

I thought we'd got rid of the neo-Malthusians a few weeks ago?

Not only are there more mouths to feed, but they are also getting better fed on all continents.

Classic bubble mentality. The sheeple don't see they're in a bubble until it bursts. When it does burst, we can't just print.

Malthus may have been premature, but he was absolutely not qualitatively wrong. Like someone who sold houses in 2003 rather than 2006.

[Meat Puppet]

Apparently there are also 1.3 billion cows, 1.75 billion sheep and goats, and 24 billion chickens. Talk about evolutionary success stories.

It seems there is plenty of forest which can be cut down and turned over to agriculture. I am sure it is all perfectly sustainable.

[JimDiGritz]

Pick It Down, on 19 September 2010 - 01:54 PM, said:

I thought we'd got rid of the neo-Malthusians a few weeks ago?

http://wattsupwithth...red-of-malthus/

Not only are there more mouths to feed, but they are also getting better fed on all continents.

Today, at least 400 million people live in regions with severe water shortages. By the year 2050, this number will grow to approximately two billion.

We are already using half of the planets products of photosynthesis and over half of all accessible fresh water. Long before human population and demand doubles again, the limits of the ecosystem’s ability to support people will become dramatically evident.

You cannot have infinite growth in a finite environment. Period. You can gnash your teeth, wail and call people Malthusian but this is maths.

If you understood exponents and compound growth you would get this.

[Pick It Down]

JimDiGritz, on 19 September 2010 - 02:59 PM, said:

Today, at least 400 million people live in regions with severe water shortages. By the year 2050, this number will grow to approximately two billion.

We are already using half of the planets products of photosynthesis and over half of all accessible fresh water. Long before human population and demand doubles again, the limits of the ecosystem’s ability to support people will become dramatically evident.

You cannot have infinite growth in a finite environment. Period. You can gnash your teeth, wail and call people Malthusian but this is maths.

If you understood exponents and compound growth you would get this.

The human population will continue to expand for as long as there is surplus. The whole world is eating more on average than it did at a time of lower population. Seems the earth is handling us very well indeed.

The neo-Mathusians have been consistently wrong for decades and refuse to change.

[Errol]

Pick It Down, on 19 September 2010 - 03:13 PM, said:

Seems the earth is handling us very well indeed.

Which bit are you looking at?

[oracle]

Clueless_Academic, on 19 September 2010 - 12:26 PM, said:

I was surprised to see World Population now at about 6.9 Billion People !! We were only looking at 5 Billion 20 years ago !!

What are your toughts on 'Carrying Capacity' of the planet ? Any cause & effect (re population growth) for increasing prices in commodities over say next 10 years or can we continue increasing production to cater for these 7 - 10 Billion people and keep staple food prices / water/ energy / etc / at low levels ??



Have also attached a youtube video which shows population growth over last 2000 years + extrapolated a few years into future.

My link

looks like NASDAQ.

one has to wonder where the population bubble actually comes from.
it ain't the west....our illustrious leaders have seen to it that western folks are either bent as a nine-bob note or mired in irreversible debt,so cannot/will not reproduce.

does this work on the same metric?...ie low quality tech stocks get beaten to a pulp during the downturn,so do low quality cannon fodder/proles etc.

[Bloo Loo]

JimDiGritz, on 19 September 2010 - 02:59 PM, said:

Today, at least 400 million people live in regions with severe water shortages. By the year 2050, this number will grow to approximately two billion.

We are already using half of the planets products of photosynthesis and over half of all accessible fresh water. Long before human population and demand doubles again, the limits of the ecosystem's ability to support people will become dramatically evident.

You cannot have infinite growth in a finite environment. Period. You can gnash your teeth, wail and call people Malthusian but this is maths.

If you understood exponents and compound growth you would get this.

OK, lets assume line 1 is true...there is a water shortage for 400million.

question...if life cant be sustained there, how can the population continue to increase?..answer...it cant, so the line 1 cant be true.

what line 1 really means, is that life is more difficult than in Ilford in the water department. but just because a person has a mile or 10 to go to get water, doesnt mean there isnt enough.

not enough means there isnt enough...it doesnt mean there is enough for population to grow.

[JimDiGritz]

Pick It Down, on 19 September 2010 - 03:13 PM, said:

The human population will continue to expand for as long as there is surplus. The whole world is eating more on average than it did at a time of lower population. Seems the earth is handling us very well indeed.

The neo-Mathusians have been consistently wrong for decades and refuse to change.

Ah. I understand now. You are a Monsanto or Nestle shareholder!

Yes, we are producing more food than ever, and yes we technically have a surplus at the moment. HOWEVER this surplus is specific to certain parts of the world and is being created through fossil fuel driven mass agriculture (fertilisers, hothouses, battery meat, and deep sea trawlers). As oil becomes more scarce, food production costs will increase dramatically. We are being forced to grow crops in less and less hospitable conditions and the likelihood of major disruptions of food security is increasing (just like we have with energy security).

You are right on one thing though, population growth is entirely based on surplus - just like every living organism. However unlike bacteria dying off in a petri dish, our slip from surplus to deficit will be truly frightening.

[porca misèria]

oracle, on 19 September 2010 - 03:20 PM, said:

one has to wonder where the population bubble actually comes from.

Modern medicine run by do-gooders, and the likes of Saint Geldof.

Geldof's big efforts may have, as Gordon said of the economy, abolished tory boom and bust. We're still in The Big Boom.

[JimDiGritz]

Bloo Loo, on 19 September 2010 - 03:21 PM, said:

OK, lets assume line 1 is true...there is a water shortage for 400million.

question...if life cant be sustained there, how can the population continue to increase?..answer...it cant, so the line 1 cant be true.

what line 1 really means, is that life is more difficult than in Ilford in the water department. but just because a person has a mile or 10 to go to get water, doesnt mean there isnt enough.

not enough means there isnt enough...it doesnt mean there is enough for population to grow.

Fair question, however the Earth has a finite carry capacity of potable water. If we had a perfect global water distribution system then of course it would sustain the maximum population.We don't, far from it.

Growth is continuing, however if you think that we are going to gradually hit the water/food/energy ceiling limit and softly plateau then I fear you haven't read enough history.