[BigPig]

I just thought I'd start keeping a note of prices on the Hydefarm Estate in Balham, specifically 3-bedroom houses on the Hydethorpe, Scholars, Pentney, and Haverhill Roads. The houses on these roads are extremely uniform, and prices only vary depending on the condition of the property, although it has become a little bit complicated due to quite a few loft extensions having been put in recently.

This is a long term project with the vague idea that one day I may be able to compare advertised prices with the ultimate Land Registry sale price. I have decide to start at this time because I believe that the current ratio of "sold subject to contract" to unsold houses is unusually high, and this seems to me to portend an imminent crash (or possibly, another bubble!) And in about ten years time I might be thinking of buying something there.

ratio "on offer"/"under offer" ("on offer"/total)

SW12: 38/21 (38/59)

Hydefarm: 1/6 (yes, that's the right way round)

under offer

715,000 Haverhill

very good conditionn, extra bathroom so must have loft extension, kitchen appears to be extended

699,950 Scholars

good condition, kitchen extended sideways

695,000 Haverhil

good condition

649,950 Haverhill

Average codition, small kitchen

649,950 Haverhill

good condition, nice kitchen

649,950 Hydethorpe

average condition

630, Haverhill

cheap looking refurb

To which we can add the only house not under offer

on offer

Hydethorpe 609,950

average - good condition

This post has been edited by BigPig: 30 August 2010 - 09:47 PM

[BigPig]

On this occasion I'll also mention the figures for 4-bed houses

ratio "on offer"/"under offer" ("on offer"/total)

SW12: 30/15 (30/45)

HF: 0/5 yes....

So for all houses on the Hydefarm estate, there are 11 under offer, and only one available. And the one available looks nicer, and is 40k cheaper than a couple of those under offer.

for the record

785,000 Pentney

735,000 Pentney

729,950 Haverhill

699,950 Hydethorpe

600,000 Hydethorpe

The last one is described as "for development or investment" so I'm ignoring it.

These, as mentioned, are identical to the three bed houses, but have loft extensions, so consequently tend to be also in recently refurbished condition.

This post has been edited by BigPig: 30 August 2010 - 09:47 PM

[BigPig]

There are two 3-bed houses to rent (I won't bother linking them) for 480pw on Scholars and 350pw on Hydethorpe. Rents (as advertised) seem much more erratic than house prices (from property to property, that is - over time they are more stable).

They typically seem to be in the 400pw to 500pw for very similar looking properties.

Just to the maths:

rent: say 450pw = 23,400pa (crikey that's scarey)

buy: say 650,000 @ 5%pa = 32,500 (even scarier)

So that looks getting on for 1/3 overvalued to me. Even at current low interest rates.

This post has been edited by BigPig: 30 August 2010 - 09:44 PM

[johnny5thumbs]

BigPig, on 30 August 2010 - 09:41 PM, said:

There are two 3-bed houses to rent (I won't bother linking them) for 480pw on Scholars and 350pw on Hydethorpe. Rents (as advertised) seem much more erratic than house prices (from property to property, that is - over time they are more stable).

They typically seem to be in the 400pw to 500pw for very similar looking properties.

Just to the maths:

rent: say 450pw = 23,400pa (crikey that's scarey)

buy: say 650,000 @ 5%pa = 32,500 (even scarier)

So that looks getting on for 1/3 overvalued to me. Even at current low interest rates.

Bigpig, some may think this kind of detailed data analysis is a trifle 'anorak', but to me and hopefuly other HPC'ers, you are another unsung hero on HPC.co.uk. providing a service trhat Rightmove is never ever going to offer.

Do please keep us all posted with your results as they become apparent.

j5t

[TeddyBear]

Interesting, thanks for this. Been looking at this area (lower end, conversion flats not houses) with a friend recently who wants to buy as has an inheritance. After a slow 2008 it seems to have picked up last year and now be selling for over peak 2007 prices? I presume this is trickle out from from the foreign money that has come into zone 1 & 2. I don't know what to say to her really. On the one hand everything is saying prices will fall but no sign of it at the moment in that area. I suppose that this might change when interest rates go up but that could be a long time yet and she is very worried about having the lump sum in the bank. It's hard when people ask your opinion to say you don't have one!

[BigPig]

johnny5thumbs, on 30 August 2010 - 11:33 PM, said:

'anorak'

I'm hoping that by spending an hour or two once a month or once a quarter recording it accurately, I might actually spend less time than I currently do browsing rightmove practically every week.

[BigPig]

TeddyBear, on 30 August 2010 - 11:45 PM, said:

After a slow 2008 it seems to have picked up last year and now be selling for over peak 2007 prices?

I agree they went back up to the peak levels, but I am really hoping they have turned down again. At the peak "ordinary" houses were being listed in the high 600k, and it now looks as if they are coming on in the low 600k.

I sympathise with your dilemma. I think you have to accept that we're all going to have to pay for the excesses of the past decades. Some of those assets we thought we owned, whether houses or money in the bank, are going to be eroded. It's almost impossible to say who is going to lose most, because it's in the hands of the government and the BoE.

Would it be possible to spend half the money on somewhere smaller and cheaper? It could be quite handy having some savings in the bank, even if they are being eroded by inflation, if the economy deteriorates and people are being made redundant, for example.

This post has been edited by BigPig: 31 August 2010 - 02:27 AM

[the flying pig]

I shall watch with interest, I'm looking in this area in the wider sense, mostly in the streets off and around the high road/in the slightly more immediate vicinity of the station.

3.5% gross rental yield is bog standard for the area.

AFAIK asking prices in this area never dipped below peak selling prices but there were a a fair number of cheap selling prices and hardly any 'peak price plus' ones at all. I am pretty sure a place on Laitwood Road that was up for auction a year or so ago went for a [it's all relative] lowish price all things considered...

This post has been edited by the flying pig: 31 August 2010 - 10:19 AM

[small_stakes]

Interesting - I don't live too far away and have been watching prices. My (anecdotal) evidence is that selling prices are well under 700 now on Scholars, Haverhill, Pentney, Hydethorpe but people are still buying because they want to be near the two primary schools. Secondary schools are not so great though.

Round the corner I know but this is my favourite one: £500k for a small converted flat!

http://property.jpho...ails.do?p=74418

[BigPig]

September update:

3 bed house ratio: sw12 37/19, Hydefarm 1/6
4 bed house ratio: sw12 32/16, Hydefarm 2/5

The under offers remain unchanged. The price of the 3-bed under offer ("A08") has reduced to 599,950.

There are two new 4. beds on the market.

B06 769,950 Scholars
Simple but nicely decorated (magnolia).

B07 749,950 Scholars
Looks a little dated, but freshly painted (white). Pebble dash exterior.

Rentals: 3-beds at 480 and 425pw on Scholars. The 350 Hydethorpe is now "let agreed"

(Hydethorpe is a bit more variable than the other streets. I may drop it in future, but with just the other 3 streets there may be too little movement)

This post has been edited by BigPig: 28 September 2010 - 12:59 PM

[Frizzers]

Well done, Bigpig.

I'm on the other side of the High Road, renting, just moved to the area from Earlsfield.

More groovy than Earlsfield, less in-your-face than Clapham, don't I love Balham. But prices, whooh.

Amazed at how many For Sale signs there currently seem to be. Hoping this portends lower prices. But you can't fault Balham for its desirability.

[cwk1977]

Frizzers, on 05 October 2010 - 08:54 PM, said:

Well done, Bigpig.

I'm on the other side of the High Road, renting, just moved to the area from Earlsfield.

More groovy than Earlsfield, less in-your-face than Clapham, don't I love Balham. But prices, whooh.

Amazed at how many For Sale signs there currently seem to be. Hoping this portends lower prices. But you can't fault Balham for its desirability.

I'm not amazed, Balham is a horribly overpriced / overrated area which is just basically an extension of Clapham for the Tarquin & Talulah's of this world.

It's amazing what a Starbucks & Pizza Express can do for House prices.

[small_stakes]

I'm guessing someone really needs to sell ... Asking px down £125,050 in 6 weeks.

Slightly o/s the Hyde Farm search area (well, actually a lot further south, between the two Commons):

http://www.rightmove...y-31032668.html

Right by the Commons, bit in the middle of nowhere for transport - must be a 25min walk up & down Bedford Hill (which is a busy road) to Balham tube, and 15-20m into the Streatham badlands for either Streatham or Streatham Hill stations (rail but no tube). Nice little side road off the main road, but near the railway line & the Streatham/Clapham School.

Price history:

Friday, October 29, 2010 1:17:33 AM

* Price changed: from '£799,950' to '£749,950'

Friday, October 08, 2010 9:39:08 AM

* Price changed: from '£839,950' to '£799,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 16, 2010 7:48:05 AM

* Price changed: from '£875,000' to '£839,950' [Found by n/a]

Thursday, September 09, 2010 7:21:51 AM

* Initial entry found. [Found by n/a]

Not much on nethouseprices.com:

Address

5 The Spinney,
London,
Greater London,
SW16 1LA £345,000
Semi-Detached
Freehold
Not New Build 14-Sep-2001
SW16 1LA

[small_stakes]

small_stakes, on 16 September 2010 - 05:19 PM, said:

Interesting - I don't live too far away and have been watching prices. My (anecdotal) evidence is that selling prices are well under 700 now on Scholars, Haverhill, Pentney, Hydethorpe but people are still buying because they want to be near the two primary schools. Secondary schools are not so great though.

Round the corner I know but this is my favourite one: £500k for a small converted flat!

http://property.jpho...ails.do?p=74418

Same linky thing still, but the price is now £450k ... So 10pc down. I seem to have an obsession with this flat now!

Still a little overpriced for only 850sq ft considering there are 2 small bedroomsa and a 'restricted height' loft conversion. I've not seen a flat in one of these houses, but know people who live in unconverted houses on this road, and there ain't much room upstairs.

If I get my act together this weekend, I'll go and see what number it is and look it up on nhp.

http://property.jpho...ails.do?p=74418

[hobdoll]

small_stakes, on 29 October 2010 - 12:42 AM, said:

Same linky thing still, but the price is now £450k ... So 10pc down. I seem to have an obsession with this flat now!

Still a little overpriced for only 850sq ft considering there are 2 small bedroomsa and a 'restricted height' loft conversion. I've not seen a flat in one of these houses, but know people who live in unconverted houses on this road, and there ain't much room upstairs.

If I get my act together this weekend, I'll go and see what number it is and look it up on nhp.

http://property.jpho...ails.do?p=74418

I remember viewing an identical flat in that street, it might even have been that flat. It was on for 80k. It was in March 1991 though!