[Analysis]

There have been a spate of articles recently outlining real house price falls or reasons to believe that house prices will start falling. These articles have reported the figures, but they have not been headline news. On the contrary 'House prices rise for seventh consecutive month' is quite a common headline of late (despite real house prices having fallen in December according to Nationwide, when you remove the seasonal adjustment).

A couple of articles of note:

http://www.independe...ks-1891034.html

states that the house builder Bellway has seen its selling prices fall in the last 6 months

http://www.timesonli...icle7020259.ece

states that 'Trading in January 2010 saw a substantial increase in average spend per advertiser....because each agent was advertising more properties for sale'

or

http://www.telegraph...big-freeze.html

which reports that 20% of estate agents saw a fall in the number of buyers in January, compared to a rise of 18% in the previous month.

It all amounts to the spin the collective press want to give at a particular time. You could spin the above into headlines like:

'House buying sentiment drops by record amount in January'
'Builder sees plunging house prices in last 6 months of 2009'
'Substantial increase of properties being marketing leads to increased fears of double dip in house prices'

My tip - look at the figures and analyse. Ignore the hyperbole.

[NEO72]

Analysis, on 09 February 2010 - 09:08 PM, said:

There have been a spate of articles recently outlining real house price falls or reasons to believe that house prices will start falling. These articles have reported the figures, but they have not been headline news. On the contrary 'House prices rise for seventh consecutive month' is quite a common headline of late (despite real house prices having fallen in December according to Nationwide, when you remove the seasonal adjustment).

A couple of articles of note:

http://www.independe...ks-1891034.html

states that the house builder Bellway has seen its selling prices fall in the last 6 months

http://www.timesonli...icle7020259.ece

states that 'Trading in January 2010 saw a substantial increase in average spend per advertiser....because each agent was advertising more properties for sale'

or

http://www.telegraph...big-freeze.html

which reports that 20% of estate agents saw a fall in the number of buyers in January, compared to a rise of 18% in the previous month.

It all amounts to the spin the collective press want to give at a particular time. You could spin the above into headlines like:

'House buying sentiment drops by record amount in January'
'Builder sees plunging house prices in last 6 months of 2009'
'Substantial increase of properties being marketing leads to increased fears of double dip in house prices'

My tip - look at the figures and analyse. Ignore the hyperbole.

Wise words - which are in the main ignored by bulls whose main lines of argument tend to be:

1. House prices have been rising therefore they will continue to do so.
OR
2. You can't loose with property - House prices only ever go up.
OR
3. Britain is overcrowded so the demand will always outstrip supply?

From my own visits to this forum, I've found that anyone in possession of actual facts tends to be bearish - whilst bulls tends to cite as their evidence any Daily Express HPI related headline. Make of that what you will

[eric pebble]

1. House prices have been rising therefore they will continue to do so.

2. You can't loose with property - House prices only ever go up.

3. Britain is overcrowded so the demand will always outstrip supply?

Er..... Only 7 - 8% of the land is actually built on....... Take a look at Google Earth/Maps with satellite tab on.... Or fly over Britain... Even on this crowded island - there is PLENTY of space actually... BUT there ARE too many people......

[swissy_fit]

eric pebble, on 10 February 2010 - 02:33 PM, said:

3. Britain is overcrowded so the demand will always outstrip supply?

Er..... Only 7 - 8% of the land is actually built on....... Take a look at Google Earth/Maps with satellite tab on.... Or fly over Britain... Even on this crowded island - there is PLENTY of space actually... BUT there ARE too many people......

Britains available land is very overcrowded.

http://ezinearticles...-Few&id=1139145

[Bloo Loo]

come back Sybil13 with your amazing database of contrarian articles.

[swissy_fit]

Bloo Loo, on 10 February 2010 - 03:10 PM, said:

come back Sybil13 with your amazing database of contrarian articles.

Please no,
They were good, but "War and Peace" posts were too much for me, she just didn't understand the concept of brevity.

[eric pebble]

gleeful_expat, on 10 February 2010 - 03:47 PM, said:

Please no,
They were good, but "War and Peace" posts were too much for me, she just didn't understand the concept of brevity.