[interestrateripoff]

http://www.telegraph...-recession.html

Quote

Fears that Britain may already be succumbing to a "double-dip" recession materialised as it emerged that 2010 opened with the worst January for the high street since comparable records began 15 years ago.

The VAT increase and unprecedented blizzards last month contributed to a sudden and unexpected collapse in retail sales, according to the British Retail Consortium. Its sales monitor registered a 0.7pc drop in like-for-like sales last month, compared with a year before – the steepest January fall since the survey began in 1995, and in stark contrast to economists' expectations of an increase of 0.5pc.

The figures come amid concern about Britain's capacity to finance itself in the international capital markets, with the spread between interest rates on benchmark UK gilts and German bunds widening, and arrive only days after the Bank of England signalled an end to its Quantitative Easing programme.

January is among the most important retail months, with New Year sales boosting earnings, even throughout most of the crisis. Stephen Robertson, director general of the British Retail Consortium, said the figures represented "An awful start to the year and [a] stark contrast to an upbeat December.

"This is the worst January sales growth in the 15 years we've been running the survey," he added. "The VAT change brought some sales forward to December, but customers are becoming cautious again in the face of economic and political uncertainty. Retailers will be hoping these results are mainly a snow-induced blip, rather than an indication of further difficulties."

However, the figures come alongside a growing tide of disappointing news on the economy. The Office for National Statistics reported late last month that the UK economy grew by a mere 0.1pc in the final quarter of the year, and, in contrast to the BRC, said that retail sales in December remained disappointing. With the temporary VAT tax cut having been withdrawn and the car scrappage scheme finishing at the end of March, economists put a significant probability on Britain dipping back into contraction early this year.

This is totally unpredicted, I mean who could have predicted this. It's truly shocking.

More free funny money looming?

[interestrateripoff]

Shop sales suffer 'worst January for 15 years' Aunties headline.

Quote

The High Street has suffered an "awful" start to the year with the slowest January sales growth for 15 years.

The value of goods sold grew 1.2% in January compared with the previous year as bad weather kept shoppers away.

On a like-for-like basis - excluding store expansions and closures - sales fell by 0.7%, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

Food sales held up well in the first half of the month, however, thanks to stocking up during the icy weather.

Online sales continued to rise fast - these were 14.6% higher in January compared with a year ago.

Cold-weather clothing also saw a boost later in the month, although sales were down compared with a very good December.

And all this happening with an election looming...

So where more goods sold or where the prices just 1.2% than January last year?

[Bloo Loo]

they are talking about "the January Sales", not January Sales.

there are 1.2% more "January Sales" than last year.

[pathfinder]

In the past my partner and I have spent 200-300 during Christmas holidays although £100 of that we give to parents to help with the food etc. We spent £70-90 related to the holiday season this year (presents, pub lunch each way while travelling by bicycle). In the sales we failed to to see anything we needed.

Worryingly for the retail sector I was always a cautious buyer however it seems my brainwashing has fallen apart beyond the norm. I can not stand shops any more. After 30 mins I want to go home, this is due to not having £20 to spend on myself i suspect, rather than some lofty moral code .

Hmm one other interesting point, although not directly related. A magician in chain restaurant came round and did a card trick, think of a card is this your card. It failed on me. A few hours afterwards I remembered the trick worked by flicking cards in front of me pausing on the one he wanted me to pick. I seem to remember thinking of the card he pulled out well the right colour at least and I thought well that is not what I want to pick, '10 of spades please'. Is the lack of impulsive purchases blocking sales tactics, I was so revolted by the adverts on the TV while with my family I had to walk out of the room. Less TV is good for you it seems.

[aa3]

pathfinder, on 09 February 2010 - 08:57 AM, said:

In the past my partner and I have spent 200-300 during Christmas holidays although £100 of that we give to parents to help with the food etc. We spent £70-90 related to the holiday season this year (presents, pub lunch each way while travelling by bicycle). In the sales we failed to to see anything we needed.

Worryingly for the retail sector I was always a cautious buyer however it seems my brainwashing has fallen apart beyond the norm. I can not stand shops any more. After 30 mins I want to go home, this is due to not having £20 to spend on myself i suspect, rather than some lofty moral code .

Hmm one other interesting point, although not directly related. A magician in chain restaurant came round and did a card trick, think of a card is this your card. It failed on me. A few hours afterwards I remembered the trick worked by flicking cards in front of me pausing on the one he wanted me to pick. I seem to remember thinking of the card he pulled out well the right colour at least and I thought well that is not what I want to pick, '10 of spades please'. Is the lack of impulsive purchases blocking sales tactics, I was so revolted by the adverts on the TV while with my family I had to walk out of the room. Less TV is good for you it seems.

I stopped getting tv to my house about 8 years ago. After 6 months of not seeing it, I couldn't believe how blatant the propoganda was on the television. It is so embarrasingly obvious once you step away from it for awhile. But when you see it everyday it becomes normal.

When I am at friends or family I feel the same as you, if they are watching something I often actually have to leave as I am so revolted or embarrased by what they are showing. But it wasn't until I stepped away from the television completely for a sustained period that I realized how bad it was.

I've talked to some people who ended up away from the tv for more than 6 months. Like one person travelled to southeast asia on a long, long vacation and when they came back they just couldn't believe the things being shown on tv here.

[Bloo Loo]

aa3, on 09 February 2010 - 09:22 AM, said:

I stopped getting tv to my house about 8 years ago. After 6 months of not seeing it, I couldn't believe how blatant the propoganda was on the television. It is so embarrasingly obvious once you step away from it for awhile. But when you see it everyday it becomes normal.

When I am at friends or family I feel the same as you, if they are watching something I often actually have to leave as I am so revolted or embarrased by what they are showing. But it wasn't until I stepped away from the television completely for a sustained period that I realized how bad it was.

I've talked to some people who ended up away from the tv for more than 6 months. Like one person travelled to southeast asia on a long, long vacation and when they came back they just couldn't believe the things being shown on tv here.

400 channels and nothing to watch.

telly was better with 4 channels.

[Tamara De Lempicka]

Bloo Loo, on 09 February 2010 - 09:27 AM, said:

400 channels and nothing to watch.

telly was better with 4 channels.

id like to be able to afford to get back on the TV ladder someday

[interestrateripoff]

Bloo Loo, on 09 February 2010 - 09:27 AM, said:

400 channels and nothing to watch.

telly was better with 4 channels.

Soon it will be TV on demand and still nothing to watch.

[aa3]

Bloo Loo, on 09 February 2010 - 09:27 AM, said:

400 channels and nothing to watch.

telly was better with 4 channels.

You are right, and I think it would be a lot better if they went back to just 4.

Sort of funny most industries reduce down to just a few players over time. Like why have ten car manufacturers when 3 will do.

TV seems to go the other way. Instead of having a few shows, with the best writers, actors and a lot riding on each show so some real money spent making it right.. They've gone to 500 shows where they don't seem to care one way or another about any one show.

[sign_of_the_times]

makes me smile when I hear people ranting about governments inserting chips into our Brains, yet they happily sit in front of the mind control box in their living rooms....

edited to bring it back on topic.... I'm not spending fook all right now, even though there's stuff I would like and can afford, better bargains to be had later methinks

This post has been edited by sign_of_the_times: 09 February 2010 - 09:49 AM

[Money Spinner]

4000 channels, 3D, HD+, Dolby Surround, Plasma, LCD, Interactive, - c'mon you luddites you can enjoy Pop Idol 1 million times better! Impress your mates! WOW!

This post has been edited by Money Spinner: 09 February 2010 - 09:56 AM

[xux42]

Bloo Loo, on 09 February 2010 - 08:52 AM, said:

they are talking about "the January Sales", not January Sales.

there are 1.2% more "January Sales" than last year.

Its not good whatever the precise details.

How come the Beeb shouts 0.1% growth from the rooftops then a few days later seems to be keeping this item low key?

They are financed by the licence fee not govt. Govt. only has control over any increase to it - surely that's not enough to enable gagging is it?

[OnlyMe]

If you had time to break down the retail sales figures and take account of the following factors:

1) The sector performaing well is food, essential item,
2) How much of the sales increases are the re-priced goods and own label stuff being marked up.
3) Quality adjustments, a lot of food is going down market not up
4) Volume adjustments, smaller packet sizes etc.
5) Continuing collapse of small outlets and concentration of purchases in major chains - where the stats come from.

I think if you took all hese factors into account you would find there has been no growth and a whole load of inflation.

Which is pretty much what has been going on for a long time.

[zilly]

For the last decade we've had a retail binge based on people often on low wages owning multiple credit cards and spending way,way beyond their means, using one card to pay off the other.

It makes me chuckle that apparently we're waiting for those days to return.

Seems delusional to me.

Even at these low IRs we've record numbers of insolvencies.

But then house prices are up, that can only be good for a sustainable economy in the future.

[Byron]

OnlyMe, on 09 February 2010 - 10:40 AM, said:

If you had time to break down the retail sales figures and take account of the following factors:

1) The sector performaing well is food, essential item,
2) How much of the sales increases are the re-priced goods and own label stuff being marked up.
3) Quality adjustments, a lot of food is going down market not up
4) Volume adjustments, smaller packet sizes etc.
5) Continuing collapse of small outlets and concentration of purchases in major chains - where the stats come from.

I think if you took all hese factors into account you would find there has been no growth and a whole load of inflation.

Which is pretty much what has been going on for a long time.

I agree with this analysis.
Last week an EA was bubbling away to me about how well they were doing and how 'bouyant' the market was. I pointed out that they were the only agency left where there had been 5 agencies in 2007.