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Potential Ftb... But Prices Aren't Dropping!


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#31 meow

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 10:08 AM

It's a similar situation here in North Tyneside. We are seeing a very slow market at very low levels. However there are still some buyers. As there are no forced sellers the prices don't seem to be going anywhere fast. Can they hold until inflation kicks in? Maybe maybe not. It wont make much difference in 5 years time IMHO.

Phoney


Inflation in houses won't kick in until velocity of money in the housing sector increases massively (look at how low volumes are), the only way given our present situation that that will happen is if lots of people could afford houses again and are willing to invest in property, the credit tap is now off so the only other thing that could happen is prices re-adjust to affordable levels.

In essence, it may not be possible for inflation to take off until money is flowing... and even then it has to flow into houses... and by then people may have been bitten in the ass by property and will be staying well clear.
MEOW - Mortgage Equity Over Withdrawal

A woman phoned in today to say there was a house price crash coming, don't worry, there isn't....

#32 Snafu

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 01:23 PM

Well, very much in the same boat myself - howeverI could up sticks and move back to Sweden and my home town and buy a big detached house for 30 grand! However, the issue would be finding a job. Not so easy. Or a decent pint, if you are so inclined.

I think it's difficult to say where things are heading - if I had to bet I would say house prices will creep down, perhaps a sharp shock after the election and then trickle downwards but I have no proof or anything to support it. Aaaanyway, good on you for moving closer to your parents to help out.

If I was you, I would give it 6 months - if things havent improved and you feel that dealing with landlords just isn't going to cut it - look to buy. However, I suspect things will be very different in the summer after the election.

Either 1. There will be massive public sector cuts if the tories get in.
Or 2. Labour win - interest rates 10% plus.

#33 Quokka

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 02:11 PM

Either 1. There will be massive public sector cuts if the tories get in.
Or 2. Labour win - interest rates 10% plus.


Either way house prices are going down. Be patient B)

#34 meow

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 02:29 PM

Either way house prices are going down. Be patient B)


Yep, in the mean time here's a nice price picture to study....

2007 reality
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| o <-- Penny slowly dropping
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| | Direction to sanity
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2012/13 logical outcome based on state of country

Edited by meow, 08 February 2010 - 02:32 PM.

MEOW - Mortgage Equity Over Withdrawal

A woman phoned in today to say there was a house price crash coming, don't worry, there isn't....

#35 PhoneyMcRingRing

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 07:20 PM

Either way house prices are going down. Be patient B)

Quokka, meow, neil I hope you are all right. If there are no significant falls over the next year I am going "all in" so to speak.
"But now the guy's got to come up with Paulie's money every week. No matter what.
Business bad? F*ck you, pay me.
Oh, you had a fire? F*ck you, pay me.
The place got hit by lightning, huh? F*ck you, pay me."

#36 desperate young

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 08:46 PM

Same for me Phoney, got one more year to wait. Can't wait too much longer. Difference is (if I have the guts!) I will be leaving the country and working internationally for a few years and returning when things have cooled. It is sick that going all in or going travelling are our main choices, not good at all.

#37 Greg Bowman

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 08:54 PM

Read up about the biggest inter-generational heist in history. And get angry.

Posted Image


or get hitched like we all did 25 years ago and don't see it as a god given right to be able to afford a house on a single income.
What does that mean?

#38 desperate young

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 09:22 PM

FYI, I can't speak for the OP or Phoney Greg, but I am married. Not that it is any of your business. It is precisely because I am married and want to start a family that I will not partake in this ponzi economy. Personally, I could 'afford' a house. However, if/when the interest rates rise my life would revolve solely around paying a mortgage. This would seem irresponsible to me.

It really irritates me people who say things like 'you have no right to a house'. Why the hell not? If you work hard are professionally (or not!) qualified refuse to take stupid risks, like many around you, then it is precisely you who do deserve a house.

Take my uncle, nice guy, not too bright, luckily for him he is 12 years older than me so has a nice house yet earns half my salary. Yes I do feel 'entitled' to have at least a house as nice as his. Frankly through a much better work ethic I have out performed him in this rat race of a life.

The difference is not how hard we work, but when we were born. You are goddam right we are angry.

IMO one of the main reasons society has broken down in some areas is because both parents have to work to feed this ponzi corrupt scum scheme.

Greg maybe I have read too much into your seemingly patronising, ill contrived, unsubstantiated statement. Would you care to explain your point further?

When my generation finds its voice things might get interesting. However, the cleverest thing that has been done, and the real reason we appear to have no voice, is to divide us, some of us have bought in to the ponzi. Therefore we are at present difficult to mobilise, as things slowly change so the division will become closer. We paid for your houses, for now, we may not want to pay for your pensions.

Edited by desperate young, 08 February 2010 - 09:26 PM.


#39 Greg Bowman

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 09:51 PM

FYI, I can't speak for the OP or Phoney Greg, but I am married. Not that it is any of your business. It is precisely because I am married and want to start a family that I will not partake in this ponzi economy. Personally, I could 'afford' a house. However, if/when the interest rates rise my life would revolve solely around paying a mortgage. This would seem irresponsible to me.

It really irritates me people who say things like 'you have no right to a house'. Why the hell not? If you work hard are professionally (or not!) qualified refuse to take stupid risks, like many around you, then it is precisely you who do deserve a house.

Take my uncle, nice guy, not too bright, luckily for him he is 12 years older than me so has a nice house yet earns half my salary. Yes I do feel 'entitled' to have at least a house as nice as his. Frankly through a much better work ethic I have out performed him in this rat race of a life.

The difference is not how hard we work, but when we were born. You are goddam right we are angry.

IMO one of the main reasons society has broken down in some areas is because both parents have to work to feed this ponzi corrupt scum scheme.

Greg maybe I have read too much into your seemingly patronising, ill contrived, unsubstantiated statement. Would you care to explain your point further?

When my generation finds its voice things might get interesting. However, the cleverest thing that has been done, and the real reason we appear to have no voice, is to divide us, some of us have bought in to the ponzi. Therefore we are at present difficult to mobilise, as things slowly change so the division will become closer. We paid for your houses, for now, we may not want to pay for your pensions.



You do seem a little confused "You have performed better" well obviously not compared to your uncle, if you read my posts I am a technologist and we like things well clear it's a computer thing. He has a nice house on half your salary and you desire one but are whining about it (and he is not too bright how rude about your own flesh and blood) so you obviously haven't performed better....

So your uncle got a break, took a risk or was in the right place at the right time. Welcome to the human race the rules haven't changed for thousands of years. Most of the planet doesn't own a house your choice - no skin of my nose. Your choice you can always rent one from all the BTLer's on here.

Your sense of entitlement smacks of the bleedng heart socialism that has strangled this country for 12 years or more. Now listen up soft lad - no one owes you anything apart from giving you the freedom to earn (which thankfully this country still does) so when you choose to whine and not earn money to satisfy your needs and desires don't blame anyone else.

By the way you wont be funding my pension or millions of self employed people like me if you think we could live on the state pension you are sadly deluded. A final thought you seem very typical of a certain demographic say the 25 -40 age group I might be wrong.

If I was you I would watch out, the generation below you are coming through and if we were Thatcher's b***** children they are the B***** grand children but with a twist, working class guile with private education, some capital and all those connections. Just another little thought for your depressive cocktail coming to a board room near you soon.

You are right you are probably F***** but houses could be the least of your worries.........

Edited by Greg Bowman, 08 February 2010 - 09:52 PM.

What does that mean?

#40 efdemin

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 10:29 PM

...


Oh do ****** off. How does posting aggressive bile like this help anyone?

#41 desperate young

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Posted 08 February 2010 - 10:46 PM

Greg, interesting point of view.

I find it interesting that you assume my age and gender. I find it interesting you assume I am 'soft'. I find it interesting you find the will to work, achieve and desire a house socialist. I find it interesting you think I would rent off a BTL merchant. I find in interesting that you think I have somehow turned on my own flesh and blood, my uncle has no o-levels/gcse's and thinks I am something of a genius, he really is a nice guy we are very close!

I find it interesting that you think luck has anything to do with any of this, it is corruption. I find it interesting you think I am whining and blaming others. I find it interesting you think because the majority of the world doesn't own that I shouldn't want to and that they shouldn't want to.

I find it interesting that you seem to like oppression and long for a feudal system, how strange. If this country has suffered from socialism it is the type that privatises the profits and socialises the losses.

I find the following situation interesting; I am not asking for a house, if I was I would get an 18 yr old girl pregnant and go on benefits. I am asking for a fair shot and the end to corruption.

I find it interesting you think I need to worry about the next generation more than you need to worry about the one beneath you.

I find it interesting that you post on an internet forum and feel the need to insult people.

I find it interesting that you are not an agent of change but a relic.

I find it interesting you assume I am over 25.

Fear is interesting...

#42 meow

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Posted 09 February 2010 - 05:23 PM

Quokka, meow, neil I hope you are all right. If there are no significant falls over the next year I am going "all in" so to speak.


I would be somewhat surprised if falls don't re-emerge during this year
MEOW - Mortgage Equity Over Withdrawal

A woman phoned in today to say there was a house price crash coming, don't worry, there isn't....

#43 meow

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Posted 09 February 2010 - 05:25 PM

Oh do ****** off. How does posting aggressive bile like this help anyone?


Interestingly a lot of his posts seem to smell of the same thing he accuses a lot of young gen-x'ers/gen-y'ers...

Shoulder <- Chip

The younger generations now are facing a mountain to climb, much steeper than ever before, and yeah a lot of them are ill educated whiners who are ill prepared and ill motivated, but it doesn't take away the fact that house prices at the moment are putting hurdles in people lives that should not be there... or at least don't lock you into debt slavery at mental repayment levels forever more

Edited by meow, 09 February 2010 - 05:32 PM.

MEOW - Mortgage Equity Over Withdrawal

A woman phoned in today to say there was a house price crash coming, don't worry, there isn't....

#44 PhoneyMcRingRing

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 07:53 PM

Shoulder <- Chip

The younger generations now are facing a mountain to climb, much steeper than ever before,


It's insane to say things like "it's always been hard". Things have got so far out of control. I "missed out" by doing a PhD during 2002-2006 which were the mega boom years. During that time I was renting as it was the cheapest option and I had no support to buy. If I had started my career proper in 2002 I could have bought a far better place than I could buy now just 4 years difference!!

The boomers should have a think about what they earn and whether they could by their house on 3.5 times that. Not too likely in most cases I think.

As for me, the PhD may pay off in the end salary and job security wise, but with houses not going down I will be far worse off than all of my Uncles. This includes the one who could afford a detached house in a nice area of Brighton after being a comprehensive teacher for 3 years*. Those pre the 2002-2006 boom and those after simply are not playing the same ball game.

Phoney

*(nothing against teachers, just that I get paid a fair bit more and could get no where near that)

Edited by PhoneyMcRingRing, 10 February 2010 - 07:55 PM.

"But now the guy's got to come up with Paulie's money every week. No matter what.
Business bad? F*ck you, pay me.
Oh, you had a fire? F*ck you, pay me.
The place got hit by lightning, huh? F*ck you, pay me."

#45 stuckmojo

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Posted 15 February 2010 - 11:43 AM

Very good thread, with various points of view.

It is always intriguing to see how the house purchase situation is approached by different people. I have always been a mega-bear on UK housing. Well, since 2006 at least, and in particular, about places like the North East, where the bulk of employment comes from the public sector, with huge numbers of people on the minimum wage or on the dole.

Now that Northern Rock's gone, we are sitting in a limbo where Interest Rates are at the historical low, and keep some over-mortgaged folks (on 15k with a 150k mortgage, interest only of course) in their houses.

We haven't seen the pain yet. It'll come, no doubt., and those who believe that the current prices are sustainable might have to reconsider their positions.

I am personally debt-free, early thirties, on what could be considered by all means a good salary, and yet I could barely afford a basic house. That is, unless I "stretched" myself, as per the original poster's dilemma.

But why would l commit so much of my disposable income to an asset which I can access with far less with rent?

What is supporting the current prices in the North-East? Not wages, Not employment. If you look at the future, I can't see the boom coming back here.

Hence, I am targeting 2012-2013 for a review of my housing needs.
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