[Jason]

I've been keeping an update with house prices in my signature since the start of the crash, and have now decided to change the format to show when the bottom was and how much they have risen since, with those lovely percentages too...

Of course this will have to be changed if prices fall back below the trough price.

The data shows the peak price, the price at the bottom (with percentage change) and the current price. I've added in the % change since peak so you can see if it rises above the peak price, and the % rise from the bottom.

I've added the data into a code box, so hopefully it should be easy to read:

----------------------- Peak ---------- Trough -(% trough fall) - Current - (% from peak) - (% from Trough)
Halifax: -------------- Aug07 199,612 - Apr09 154,490 (-22.60%) - Sep09 163,533 (-18.07%) - (+05.85%)
Nationwide: ----------- Oct07 186,044 - Feb09 147,746 (-20.59%) - Sep09 161,816 (-13.02%) - (+09.52%)
Rightmove: ------------ May08 242,500 - Jan09 213,570 (-11.93%) - Sep09 223,996 (-07.63%) - (+04.88%)
DCLG (formerly ODPM): - Jan08 221,758 - Mar09 187,193 (-15.59%) - Jul09 196,338 (-11.46%) - (+04.89%)
Land Registry (Mth): -- Nov07 186,009 - Apr09 152,803 (-17.85%) - Aug09 155,968 (-16.15%) - (+02.07%)
FT HPI: --------------- Feb08 231,804 - Apr09 199,953 (-13.74%) - Aug09 205,338 (-11.42%) - (+02.69%)
Land Registry (Qtr): -- Q307 230,474 -- Q109 198,939 (-13.68%) -- Q209 224,064 (-02.78%) -- (+12.63%)

I don't have as much time any more, so maybe someone else can take this over and keep it up to date? I'll do my best for the time being.

This post has been edited by Jason: 09 October 2009 - 01:26 PM
Reason for edit:: Edited to add FT data

[Timm]

I've added the FT Acadametrics data:

----------------------- Peak ---------- Trough -(% trough fall) - Current - (% from peak) - (% from Trough)
Halifax: -------------- Aug07 199,612 - Apr09 154,490 (-22.60%) - Sep09 163,533 (-18.07%) - (+05.85%)
Nationwide: ----------- Oct07 186,044 - Feb09 147,746 (-20.59%) - Sep09 161,816 (-13.02%) - (+09.52%)
Rightmove: ------------ May08 242,500 - Jan09 213,570 (-11.93%) - Sep09 223,996 (-07.63%) - (+04.88%)
DCLG (formerly ODPM): - Jan08 221,758 - Mar09 187,193 (-15.59%) - Jul09 196,338 (-11.46%) - (+04.89%)
Land Registry (Mth): -- Nov07 186,009 - Apr09 152,803 (-17.85%) - Aug09 155,968 (-16.15%) - (+02.07%)
Land Registry (Qtr): -- Q307 230,474 -- Q109 198,939 (-13.68%) -- Q209 224,064 (-02.78%) -- (+12.63%)
FT HPI:---------------- Feb08 231,804---Apr2009 199,953-(-13.74%)-Aug09 205,338-(-11.42%)---(+2.69%)

PS, what the hell is going on with the LR Qtr data?

[leicestersq]

Jason, on 09 October 2009 - 01:05 PM, said:

I've been keeping an update with house prices in my signature since the start of the crash, and have now decided to change the format to show when the bottom was and how much they have risen since, with those lovely percentages too...

Of course this will have to be changed if prices fall back below the trough price.

The data shows the peak price, the price at the bottom (with percentage change) and the current price. I've added in the % change since peak so you can see if it rises above the peak price, and the % rise from the bottom.

I've added the data into a code box, so hopefully it should be easy to read:

----------------------- Peak ---------- Trough -(% trough fall) - Current - (% from peak) - (% from Trough)
Halifax: -------------- Aug07 199,612 - Apr09 154,490 (-22.60%) - Sep09 163,533 (-18.07%) - (+05.85%)
Nationwide: ----------- Oct07 186,044 - Feb09 147,746 (-20.59%) - Sep09 161,816 (-13.02%) - (+09.52%)
Rightmove: ------------ May08 242,500 - Jan09 213,570 (-11.93%) - Sep09 223,996 (-07.63%) - (+04.88%)
DCLG (formerly ODPM): - Jan08 221,758 - Mar09 187,193 (-15.59%) - Jul09 196,338 (-11.46%) - (+04.89%)
Land Registry (Mth): -- Nov07 186,009 - Apr09 152,803 (-17.85%) - Aug09 155,968 (-16.15%) - (+02.07%)
Land Registry (Qtr): -- Q307 230,474 -- Q109 198,939 (-13.68%) -- Q209 224,064 (-02.78%) -- (+12.63%)

I don't have as much time any more, so maybe someone else can take this over and keep it up to date? I'll do my best for the time being.






i

I dont understand this. Why are the land registry prices for the quarter so much higher than for the month? There must be something wrong here.

[Jason]

Timm, on 09 October 2009 - 01:22 PM, said:

I've added the FT Acadametrics data:

----------------------- Peak ---------- Trough -(% trough fall) - Current - (% from peak) - (% from Trough)
Halifax: -------------- Aug07 199,612 - Apr09 154,490 (-22.60%) - Sep09 163,533 (-18.07%) - (+05.85%)
Nationwide: ----------- Oct07 186,044 - Feb09 147,746 (-20.59%) - Sep09 161,816 (-13.02%) - (+09.52%)
Rightmove: ------------ May08 242,500 - Jan09 213,570 (-11.93%) - Sep09 223,996 (-07.63%) - (+04.88%)
DCLG (formerly ODPM): - Jan08 221,758 - Mar09 187,193 (-15.59%) - Jul09 196,338 (-11.46%) - (+04.89%)
Land Registry (Mth): -- Nov07 186,009 - Apr09 152,803 (-17.85%) - Aug09 155,968 (-16.15%) - (+02.07%)
Land Registry (Qtr): -- Q307 230,474 -- Q109 198,939 (-13.68%) -- Q209 224,064 (-02.78%) -- (+12.63%)
FT HPI:---------------- Feb08 231,804---Apr2009 199,953-(-13.74%)-Aug09 205,338-(-11.42%)---(+2.69%)

PS, what the hell is going on with the LR Qtr data?

Cheers Tim, I've added it now.

The Land Reg Quarter data is a raw mean average so is a bit pointless, that's why they stopped publishing it. However, it still is a good data set and can only now be found on the BBC website (see link in sig).

[Timm]

leicestersq, on 09 October 2009 - 01:23 PM, said:

I dont understand this. Why are the land registry prices for the quarter so much higher than for the month? There must be something wrong here.

Might be a misskey somewhere. The FT and LR should be very close to each other, as they are essentialy from the same data.

[Timm]

Jason, on 09 October 2009 - 01:24 PM, said:

Cheers Tim, I've added it now.

The Land Reg Quarter data is a raw mean average so is a bit pointless, that's why they stopped publishing it. However, it still is a good data set and can only now be found on the BBC website (see link in sig).

Oh.

Well, I've learned something today!

[tinker]

Jason, on behalf of the peeps at HPC, thanks for doing this.

It's always interesting and useful.

Appreciate the effort that goes into it.

tinks

[TheCountOfNowhere]

It's comical that the only one based on actual sales is the lowest.

I have a new moto....facts not stats. I've given up caring what the hali-wide-rightmove indexes say, the land registry is the only one worth following, the others seem flawed and are biased since they are generated by vested interest groups, so should always be taken with a pinch of salt. They are a good indicator of sentiment and stupidity though

[Sybil13]

TheCountOfNowhere, on 09 October 2009 - 04:04 PM, said:

It's comical that the only one based on actual sales is the lowest.

I have a new moto....facts not stats. I've given up caring what the hali-wide-rightmove indexes say, the land registry is the only one worth following, the others seem flawed and are biased since they are generated by vested interest groups, so should always be taken with a pinch of salt. They are a good indicator of sentiment and stupidity though

So how do we interpret this ?
We are told that lenders valuations are coming in 20% + under peak.

We are told that lenders best rates are for 60% LTV , above this the risk is reflected in a 90% LTV costing the lender 5x's more and therefore higher interest rates.

We told over and over that loan to income HAS to adjust back to being closer to its historic norm, with Fitch saying this week:

Quote

The group's head of UK residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), Alastair Bigley, said Fitch expected unemployment to peak next year and remain elevated into 2011, a factor which would inevitably weigh on house prices.

He said that the long term average earnings to house price ratio – currently 3.5 times earnings – was not expected to increase, and as such prices needed to decline in order to meet this level.

He added: 'Despite the fact that a global economic recovery is underway, the economic fundamentals do not auger well for a sustained strong recovery in the UK housing market.

'Although households are reducing debt and increasing savings, the upfront cost of house purchase for first time buyers is likely to stifle housing demand.'

With these factors weighing, Fitch expected to see further sharp falls in house prices. The group's head of global economics and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Sovereigns, Brian Coulton, said: 'The UK's average house price to income ratio remains significantly higher than the long term average.

'A 30% fall from the peak of October 2007 would bring this ratio back in line with the long term average.' Given that prices are currently down 13% from peak, Fitch is therefore expecting a further fall of 17%.

We are told that none of the factors that contribute to a stable let alone recovering market have changed, lending is severely restricted and will be for years to come . New liquidity rules will see banks having to hold billions in gilts as a safety net whilst at the same time Lenders Need to Cut Lending by £500billion .

FTB's can't afford to enter the market , approvals are well below what is considered needed for a stable market, interest rates can only go up , so what is happening?

Is it simply that the only houses are selling are those that are selling to the cash rich prepared to pay 2007 values therefore leaving all the other properties sitting on Rightmove unsold?

Are we saying that if all the backlog of houses unsold on RM were forced to sell to people who needed a mortgage they would have to come down 30% to fall in line with the all the factors needed for a recovering market, that is recovering at pre 2001 levels pre RMBS and back to sensible loan to incomes?

[Jason]

Sybil13, on 09 October 2009 - 04:53 PM, said:

So how do we interpret this ?

Clearly they are more lower priced houses in the country, e.g. terraced etc.

[Jason]

tinker, on 09 October 2009 - 03:31 PM, said:

Jason, on behalf of the peeps at HPC, thanks for doing this.

It's always interesting and useful.

Appreciate the effort that goes into it.

tinks

No probs!

Maybe some journalists would enjoy my revised sig.


Fancy taking it over?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Sybil13, on 09 October 2009 - 04:53 PM, said:

So how do we interpret this ?

errrrrrrr.....dont believe the tripe...i mean...hype

This post has been edited by TheCountOfNowhere: 10 October 2009 - 01:01 AM

[GordonBrownSpentMyFuture]

tinker, on 09 October 2009 - 03:31 PM, said:

Jason, on behalf of the peeps at HPC, thanks for doing this.

It's always interesting and useful.

Appreciate the effort that goes into it.

tinks

I second that.

Thanks for taking the time and effort, Jason.

[Jason]

Signature updated with Rightmove data.

[Bear Faced Cheek]

Oh no! I just made a lovely chart showing these figures, but can't upload it from this pc! Argh! Anyone fancy getting it in an email and posting it for me? Mail me at firstquery@hotmail.co.uk