[Frank Hovis]

General Congreve, on Jul 19 2009, 07:46 PM, said:

I wasn't suggesting people on here were frustrated BTLers. I was just trying to gauge whether people would be happy to capitalise on depressed property prices to set up their own BTL empire should the opportunity arise. BTLing isn't the only way HPCers can capitalise either. There is also the route of using savings to buy gold bullion with a view to cashing in when the currencies of indebted western nations inevitably collapse in the coming months/years.

Makes sense. Don't see that that is a bad thing though.

[General Congreve]

Frank Hovis, on Jul 19 2009, 07:52 PM, said:

Makes sense. Don't see that that is a bad thing though.

Well, if someone can pick up a house for 40/50/60% off peak, it'll be because lots of people have become unemployed, and/or interest rates rise and force them to sell. It means that HPCers buying at a heavy discount will indirectly be happy at the expense of others.

I mean I could have put a 'get out option' whereby HPCers could vote they'd be over the moon about their dirt cheap new home, but would feel weeelly, weeelly sorry for the poor family who used to live there who are now living in a filthy bedsit. However, that option invalidates itself, because if you're wishing house prices down so you can get yourself a lovely pad at an affordable price, it goes hand in hand with knowing that for prices to drop hugely they'll be widespread misery for many.

So either you're happy to see people suffer, so you may gain, or you're a noble human being who would willingly forego the opportunity of an affordable home so that others may prosper. Obviously the world doesn't work like that, as HPCers have no direct control over house prices and a collapse looks inevitable anyway, so they'll just be picking up the pieces to their advantage. But it seems most on here are happily cheering on a collapse in house prices while sneering at the soon to be homeless idiots who bought near the peak. The results of my poll pretty much prove it.

This post has been edited by General Congreve: 20 July 2009 - 12:05 AM

[General Congreve]

DrBubb, on Jul 20 2009, 12:11 AM, said:

"I'd rather the status quo of pre-2007 was maintained, I hate to see people lose everything they've worked for, even if it means life is harder for me in the long-run as a consequence."

Status Quo?

Do You mean "temporary bubble prices"?

Surely it should be clear that such prices were not sustainable without huge amounts of debt
being piled up. There arent enough suckers in the UK to keep those bogus economics alove

Hello DrBubb, love your work BTW.

You are of course entirely correct, it would be impossible to maintain the 2007 situation, the over-leveraged market was destined to collapse. The question was entirely hypothetical, and was solely related to discovering HPCers attitude to the fortunes/misfortunes of others, relative to themselves.

Seems we're a selfish bunch of f*ckers!

[Frank Hovis]

General Congreve, on Jul 20 2009, 12:58 AM, said:

Well, if someone can pick up a house for 40/50/60% off peak, it'll be because lots of people have become unemployed, and/or interest rates rise and force them to sell. It means that HPCers buying at a heavy discount will indirectly be happy at the expense of others.

I mean I could have put a 'get out option' whereby HPCers could vote they'd be over the moon about their dirt cheap new home, but would feel weeelly, weeelly sorry for the poor family who used to live there who are now living in a filthy bedsit. However, that option invalidates itself, because if you're wishing house prices down so you can get yourself a lovely pad at an affordable price, it goes hand in hand with knowing that for prices to drop hugely they'll be widespread misery for many.

So either you're happy to see people suffer, so you may gain, or you're a noble human being who would willingly forego the opportunity of an affordable home so that others may prosper. Obviously the world doesn't work like that, as HPCers have no direct control over house prices and a collapse looks inevitable anyway, so they'll just be picking up the pieces to their advantage. But it seems most on here are happily cheering on a collapse in house prices while sneering at the soon to be homeless idiots who bought near the peak. The results of my poll pretty much prove it.

Your "typical" scenario is again assuming a lot of forced sellers who are suffering. I am assuming some forced sellers (setting the prices at the margins) and a continued slide in prices as there are few buyers able to pay anything approaching 2007 prices (I would say "prepared" but people en masses aren't generally that clever).

In my direct experience - my neighbours - the houses have been owned by the same people for at least ten years (in some cases forty), no mewing. It will make no practical difference to them if their houses fall by 20%, 40% or 90%.

So yes there will be some people suffering, but it will be people who overpaid and overborrowed, especially BTLers, and as their complicity in the bubble caused a lot of suffering amongst people they priced out I am content to see the karma return to them.

[General Congreve]

Frank Hovis, on Jul 20 2009, 05:52 AM, said:

Your "typical" scenario is again assuming a lot of forced sellers who are suffering. I am assuming some forced sellers (setting the prices at the margins) and a continued slide in prices as there are few buyers able to pay anything approaching 2007 prices (I would say "prepared" but people en masses aren't generally that clever).

In my direct experience - my neighbours - the houses have been owned by the same people for at least ten years (in some cases forty), no mewing. It will make no practical difference to them if their houses fall by 20%, 40% or 90%.

So yes there will be some people suffering, but it will be people who overpaid and overborrowed, especially BTLers, and as their complicity in the bubble caused a lot of suffering amongst people they priced out I am content to see the karma return to them.

If prices fall dramatically it will only be through forced selling on a wide scale at the lower price the market can tolerate. This is because, as you say, the money isn't out there to be lent to buyers to support current prices. The market will remain frozen and prices will be static, as is the current situation, until people's financial situation forces them to sell and take the loss on the chin. This will either occur when interest rates rise and/or unemployment continues to rise, causing more mortgage defaults. This is what many on here are gleefully waiting for, the forced sale (accompanied by the associated misery) of homes on a countrywide scale, so that they can gain a good deal. The poll results prove it and I have seen this widely seen this schadenfreude on HPC myself, as I'm sure you have.

BTW - I don't get your point about your neighbours. Sure they have plenty of equity to ride out a crash, good for them, many people do, myself included fortunately. It's the millions of others that don't that is the point, whose loss will be many a HPCers happy gain.

[William Parkar]

I'm happy to see a few unfortunate people at the margin suffer if it means a cheaper housing and a more stable economy.


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