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#31 MOP

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Posted 20 June 2009 - 06:00 PM

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The Sibley Thread Bomb - A How-To Guide

Contsruct: Put together between three and seven well-spaced lines of OTT blind optimism. Steer well clear of economics and stick to spurious anecdotals and the odd wild prediction. Finish off with "I told you so". Maximum impact, minimum detail. Nice!
Target: Find a thread with plenty of action going on. A "green shoots" thread is preferable, but any thread started by a fellow Bull usually works. If Harry Monk is there, even better!
Deploy: When it's least expected, throw the thread bomb into the target area and quickly move to a safe distance. Watch the thread bomb go off and create chaos among the Bears. Wait a while, then throw another one in for good measure. Job done.


QUOTE
"Mr Brown does still keep in touch with Prudence, but only via a Ouija board." - Jeff Randall April 09

#32 MOP

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Posted 20 June 2009 - 06:05 PM

Posted Image
The Sibley Thread Bomb - A How-To Guide

Contsruct: Put together between three and seven well-spaced lines of OTT blind optimism. Steer well clear of economics and stick to spurious anecdotals and the odd wild prediction. Finish off with "I told you so". Maximum impact, minimum detail. Nice!
Target: Find a thread with plenty of action going on. A "green shoots" thread is preferable, but any thread started by a fellow Bull usually works. If Harry Monk is there, even better!
Deploy: When it's least expected, throw the thread bomb into the target area and quickly move to a safe distance. Watch the thread bomb go off and create chaos among the Bears. Wait a while, then throw another one in for good measure. Job done.


QUOTE
"Mr Brown does still keep in touch with Prudence, but only via a Ouija board." - Jeff Randall April 09

#33 50%deposit

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Posted 20 June 2009 - 06:33 PM

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thats an incredibly informative pie chart.

So in effect we could wage war in Vietnam another 6 times or so!!! Such fun!! Or another 3 times with twice the ooomph!!!!

#34 MOP

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Posted 20 June 2009 - 06:45 PM

This Recession vs Great Depression

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:ph34r: Attached File  mf_popcorn1.gif   3.95KB   0 downloads :ph34r:

Edited by MOP, 20 June 2009 - 06:46 PM.

The Sibley Thread Bomb - A How-To Guide

Contsruct: Put together between three and seven well-spaced lines of OTT blind optimism. Steer well clear of economics and stick to spurious anecdotals and the odd wild prediction. Finish off with "I told you so". Maximum impact, minimum detail. Nice!
Target: Find a thread with plenty of action going on. A "green shoots" thread is preferable, but any thread started by a fellow Bull usually works. If Harry Monk is there, even better!
Deploy: When it's least expected, throw the thread bomb into the target area and quickly move to a safe distance. Watch the thread bomb go off and create chaos among the Bears. Wait a while, then throw another one in for good measure. Job done.


QUOTE
"Mr Brown does still keep in touch with Prudence, but only via a Ouija board." - Jeff Randall April 09

#35 libspero

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Posted 20 June 2009 - 07:03 PM

Some old ones from 2007 when we first started watching things unfolding:

ABX Index - Bought to our attention by cgnao
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Bear Stearns
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LCDX Spread - Bought to our attention by ?..!
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Edited by libspero, 21 June 2009 - 12:11 PM.

And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw


#36 libspero

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Posted 20 June 2009 - 07:22 PM

Not strictly a chart.. but discussed in October 2007
http://www.ruebritan...01_archive.html (great site, please visit)
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And this one from August 2007 - Although everybody I knew laughed at it
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And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw


#37 MOP

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Posted 20 June 2009 - 07:23 PM

Posted Image
The Sibley Thread Bomb - A How-To Guide

Contsruct: Put together between three and seven well-spaced lines of OTT blind optimism. Steer well clear of economics and stick to spurious anecdotals and the odd wild prediction. Finish off with "I told you so". Maximum impact, minimum detail. Nice!
Target: Find a thread with plenty of action going on. A "green shoots" thread is preferable, but any thread started by a fellow Bull usually works. If Harry Monk is there, even better!
Deploy: When it's least expected, throw the thread bomb into the target area and quickly move to a safe distance. Watch the thread bomb go off and create chaos among the Bears. Wait a while, then throw another one in for good measure. Job done.


QUOTE
"Mr Brown does still keep in touch with Prudence, but only via a Ouija board." - Jeff Randall April 09

#38 Pytyr

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Posted 20 June 2009 - 11:56 PM

My current favourites:

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#39 Scott

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Posted 21 June 2009 - 07:07 AM

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G7 Nations Short Term Debt (above)

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G7 Nations Debt (above)

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Cost of mortgage per 1k given interest rate and term (above)

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And although not strictly a chart, it is one of my favourites (above)

Edited: pictures didn't appear + gave explanation of some charts

Edited by Scott, 21 June 2009 - 10:52 AM.


#40 hotairmail

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Posted 21 June 2009 - 11:07 AM

This was the famous Credit Suisse report commissioned by the IMF into sub prime (because the US was failing to pull together the numbers) and published March 2007. That was when it became clear the US investment banks were bust. Source of the original reset graph - full version reproduced below.


http://www.billcara......d Housing.pdf



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"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."


#41 Scott

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Posted 21 June 2009 - 11:10 AM

My charts paint a very bullish picture.

And which country were they for?

Ah, looks like Australia!

Mmm, I could have sworn this was .co.uk.

Edited: Answered my own question as couldn't be bothered to wait for the reply!

Edited by Scott, 21 June 2009 - 11:42 AM.


#42 libspero

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Posted 21 June 2009 - 12:51 PM

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Might as well add this one while it's topical, demonstrating credit contraction in the US

And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw


#43 50sQuiff

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Posted 21 June 2009 - 01:56 PM

I thought this one was particularly sickening, especially having read the Goldman Sachs 'record profits' story this morning.

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#44 Executive Sadman

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Posted 21 June 2009 - 02:56 PM

This little chart shows how volatile building land is. In the nineties crash, which showed as pretty subdued in the indices, straining your eyes at this little chart, it looks like land prices went from an index of just under 40 at the peak, to about 10 at the bottom, so approximately a 75% drop!

It is likely to be even higher this time with such a steep crash. IMO that's what to buy at the bottom.


I *think* you may be reading the chart wrong. It says everything is rebased to 1983=100, and i think the vertical scale is points above that so maybe land prices fell from 140 to 110.
The chart isnt very clear though, maybe it had annotations to go with it?
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#45 Scott

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Posted 21 June 2009 - 05:33 PM

I *think* you may be reading the chart wrong. It says everything is rebased to 1983=100, and i think the vertical scale is points above that so maybe land prices fell from 140 to 110.
The chart isnt very clear though, maybe it had annotations to go with it?

You are correct. But it looks to me that land prices need to fall about 60% on that chart and the cost of building a house needs to fall by about a third, to get back to long term average growth. Now let's say that land is 40% of the cost of an overall price of a house for my example.

So, if a house sells for £100k and there is a plot of land for sale next to it that is the same size, the land would currently be on the market for £40k (with planning permission). And the cost to build the house would be £50k (allowing for a 10% profit for the housebuilder).

Now that land cost needs to fall 60%, so its £24k at the bottom of the crash. And the house build also needs to drop by one third, bringing that to £33k. The builder takes 10% profit, making it £62,700.

A drop of 37.8%.

These are worked on guesstimate amounts for the land percentage, housebuild percentage and housebuilder profit margin, so feel free to correct me on those.




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