[cashinmattress]

Housing market is flat, not recovering

Quote

Despite claims earlier this week from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors that prices in the property market may now be beginning to turn, one expert believes they are still flat.

Paul Holmes, chief executive officer of Firstrung, believes that there is still a need for considerable correction within the market.

"What we are witnessing now is a market that has deflated to the point that it is now flat and we're going to see a very gradual decrease in prices," says Mr Holmes.

Currently, there are few distressed sellers, he notes, adding that people are putting their properties on the market at full price and are not budging on offer prices.

Instead of rapid falls in home values, prices will deflate more slowly, he suggests.

His comments follow separate pieces of research from Nationwide and Halifax which indicate that while house prices rose month-on-month in May, values are still considerably lower than they were at the same time last year.

[50%deposit]

cashinmattress, on Jun 13 2009, 12:54 PM, said:

Housing market is flat, not recovering

like the housing market was flat between 1995-7

[Harry Monk]

Sooner or later the forced sales will start hitting the market in droves.

[Valerius]

Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year?

[Harry Monk]

Valerius, on Jun 13 2009, 02:16 PM, said:

Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year?

Boy oh boy are you in for some disappointment this October, November, December, January etc

[Bloo Loo]

Valerius, on Jun 13 2009, 02:16 PM, said:

Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year?

its here, its with us.

its called a bull trap.

in your case though woof woof............Psssssssssssssssssssssssssss

[cashinmattress]

Valerius, on Jun 13 2009, 02:16 PM, said:

Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year?

Huh?

I see you have brought your atypical self into this thread.

Do you care to enlighten us with a well presented, cogent thesis, citing precedence and fact?

Or do you just want to get your pee pee smacked by making emotive, idiot statements, as per usual?

Please do tell what is your agenda? Posting here assumes that you are either heavily leveraged, in the property conveyancing game, or is it something different altogether?

[Harry Monk]

cashinmattress, on Jun 13 2009, 02:26 PM, said:

Huh?


Do you care to enlighten us with a well presented, cogent thesis, citing precedence and fact?

Or do you just want to get your pee pee smacked by making emotive, idiot statements, as per usual?

My money is on Option 2.

[Bloo Loo]

cashinmattress, on Jun 13 2009, 02:26 PM, said:

Huh?

I see you have brought your atypical self into this thread.

Do you care to enlighten us with a well presented, cogent thesis, citing precedence and fact?

Or do you just want to get your pee pee smacked by making emotive, idiot statements, as per usual?

Please do tell what is your agenda? Posting here assumes that you are either heavily leveraged, in the property conveyancing game, or is it something different altogether?

he's masturbating.

[Sybil13]

cashinmattress, on Jun 13 2009, 01:54 PM, said:

Housing market is flat, not recovering

Look, matey, I know a dead cat when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

No no its not dead, its bouncing!

Nah it's stone dead.

Nononono, no, no! 'E's bouncing !



Housing Market Dead

Quote

UK house prices continue falling as actual house sales crash by sixty percent

UK house prices (actual sold values) continued falling according to the latest statistical release from Land Registry published this morning which records the actual prices achieved...

Although these figures can lag by up to six months; the period covered is in fact November to February, the most startling revelation is the severe drop in sales transactions. Nationally there was a sixty percent fall in sales, in February the number of transactions slumped to just 25,592, half of the 51,121 recorded in February 2008. In London 2,933 properties changed hands compared with 7,152 last year, a fall of circa 65%.

The mainstream media will generate plenty of opinion today suggesting a 'bottom' of sorts has been reached by the housing market. With transaction numbers at lows not seen since the seventies and mortgage lending 60% down year on year this would be a premature assumption when mortgage lending and sales transactions suggest an undeniable fact; the housing market is in fact dead...

Sellers can keep their properties on at 2007 value but very few will sell , Rightmove / Hometrack /Savills etc have been saying this since the start of the year.

Rightmove said that sellers that had "drastically reduced " their property price were still finding it hard to find a buyer able to get the finance.

Yes of course a % will sell to cash rich buyers , which is what Hometrack confirmed , but anyone needing a mortgage will find it difficult to pay 2007 values :



1. With 97% fewer mortgages available for FTB's.

2.With new rules under which lenders have to set aside more capital to cover high loan-to-value mortgages means the cost to the lender of making one 90% LTV loan available can be four or five times the cost of offering a mortgage at 60% LTV, resulting in a situation where the more lending a lender does at 90% the less lending they are able to do overall.

3. With Tightened lending criteria means first-time buyers applying for a large loan had a two-in-three chance of being rejected, with lenders only interested in "squeaky clean" borrowers with perfect credit records.

4. With the CML, whose members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98 in every 100 mortgages, saying :

Quote

While an improvement on the March figures, however, the number of home loans granted in April was down 28 per cent on the same month last year.

Those loans totalled £4.5 billion which was also up 16 per cent on the total for March although the total value was down 40 per cent on April last year

5. Surveyors Realistic Valuations Break Chains

6. Homebuyers Left High and Dry as Mortgage Offers Cancelled

This post has been edited by Sybil13: 13 June 2009 - 01:36 PM

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Valerius, on Jun 13 2009, 02:16 PM, said:

Housing Market is not crashing either...

Where is the crash cruise speed so much talked about earlier this year?

Valerius, I hate to tell you this, but the crash is back on full speed ahead. Loads of 5-10% reductions this week and last. Here are some from Guildford all since the 10th June one reduced from £1.5m down to £1.3m

Anyone who bought in the last 2 months has lost money already, and if they are lucky enough not to have exchanged, they should probably withdraw their offer now whilst they still can. The next leg will 10% down by Christmas.

Quote

http://www.rightmove...80%26index%3D10

12 June 2009 20:59:51

* Price changed: from '£1,300,000' to '£1,250,000' [Found by n/a]

29 May 2009 18:32:12

* Agent found: Savills
* Agents Location found: Guildford
* Agents Telephone found: 08453735314

11 May 2009 12:35:13

* Brief Description found: 5 bedrooms - 4 reception rooms - 2 bathrooms - Garage - In about 0.514 of an acre. [Found by n/a]
* Price found: £1,300,000 [Found by n/a]
* Status found: Available [Found by n/a]
* Subtitle found: 5 bedroom house [Found by n/a]
* Title found: Merrow, Guildford, Surrey [Found by n/a]

and

Quote

http://www.rightmove...80%26index%3D10

ate event
13 June 2009 09:53:50

* Agents Telephone changed: from '08453456946' to '08453032259'
* Price changed: Offers in Excess of £1,300,000

10 June 2009 14:00:08

* Price changed: from '£1,499,995' to '£1,300,000' [Found by n/a]

17 February 2009 08:18:19

* Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Premium Listing' [Found by n/a]

18 December 2008 20:07:25

* Brief Description changed: A beautifully presented six double bedroom detached Victorian family home with great views across the Hogs Back. Ideally located for the amenities of Guildford. The accommodation is spacious and laid out over three floors. (contd...) [Found by aop27]
* Price changed: from '£1,350,000' to '£1,499,995' [Found by aop27]

16 December 2008 20:08:48

* Brief Description changed: MARKETING AT A REDUCED PRICE FOR THE 11TH, 12TH AND 13TH DECEMBER ONLY SALE, OFFER ENDS CLOSE OF BUSINESS WED 17TH AT 5.00PM. A beautifully presented six double bedroom detached Victorian family home with great views across the Hogs Back. Ideally located for the amenities of Guildford. (contd...) [Found by aop27]

14 December 2008 14:11:44

* Brief Description changed: MARKETING AT A REDUCED PRICE FOR THE 11TH, 12TH AND 13TH DECEMBER ONLY A beautifully presented six double bedroom detached Victorian family home with great views across the Hogs Back. Ideally located for the amenities of Guildford. The accommodation is spacious and laid out over three floors. (contd...) [Found by StefV]
* Price changed: from '£1,625,000' to '£1,350,000' [Found by StefV]

06 December 2008 08:57:48

* Subtitle changed: from '6 bedroom detached' to '6 bedroom detached house ' [Found by SaintJay]

19 November 2008 12:20:29

* Price changed: from '£1,790,000' to '£1,625,000' [Found by aop27]

08 November 2008 17:31:42

* Agent found: Gascoigne-Pees
* Agents Location found: Guildford
* Agents Telephone found: 08453456946

29 October 2008 09:29:22

* Brief Description found: A beautifully presented six double bedroom detached Victorian family home with great views across the Hogs Back. Ideally located for the amenities of Guildford. The accommodation is spacious and laid ... [Found by d179]
* Price found: £1,790,000 [Found by d179]
* Status found: Available [Found by d179]
* Subtitle found: 6 bedroom detached [Found by d179]
* Title found: Guildford, Surrey, GU1 [Found by d179]

[Harry Monk]

mikelivingstone, on Jun 13 2009, 02:35 PM, said:

. The next leg will 10% down by Christmas.

My prediction too, and around 20% down by this time next year. I've called it 100% correctly so far, and was repeatedly forecasting the current bull trap on the forum a couple of months back. Prices will be moving downwards throughout the Winter as economic gloom descends across the land.

We also have a General Election next year and the Conservatives will be making the long-overdue cuts in the public sector. Unemployment will rise for some time yet and the housing market won't recover until people start getting back to work in large numbers.

This post has been edited by Harry Monk: 13 June 2009 - 01:43 PM

[Valerius]

cashinmattress, on Jun 13 2009, 02:26 PM, said:

Huh?

I see you have brought your atypical self into this thread.

Do you care to enlighten us with a well presented, cogent thesis, citing precedence and fact?
Or do you just want to get your pee pee smacked by making emotive, idiot statements, as per usual?

Please do tell what is your agenda? Posting here assumes that you are either heavily leveraged, in the property conveyancing game, or is it something different altogether?

Funny you are saying that when all you do is scouring the internet and copy/paste here your doom-mongering stories.

Are you an HPC evangelist?

[Sybil13]

mikelivingstone, on Jun 13 2009, 02:35 PM, said:

Valerius, I hate to tell you this, but the crash is back on full speed ahead. Loads of 5-10% reductions this week and last. Here are some from Guildford all since the 10th June one reduced from £1.5m down to £1.3m

Anyone who bought in the last 2 months has lost money already, and if they are lucky enough not to have exchanged, they should probably withdraw their offer now whilst they still can. The next leg will 10% down by Christmas.

and

10% by Christmas is a safe bet given that:

Mutuals braced for drop in property prices - survey

Quote

Building society bosses are expecting on average a 10 per cent drop in house prices this year according to a survey by the Building Societies' Association.

About 39 per cent of bosses polled predicted house prices would fall between 5 per cent and 10 per cent this year and a further 29 per cent forecast a drop of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent.

Not sure what the other 32% thought , it was probably unprintable!

If Rightmove / Savills etc said earlier this year that sellers needed to reduce prices 25 -30% then by next January we should see 35 - 40% so what are sellers waiting for?

Once prices are down they are NOT going back up for a very long time.

If I needed to sell I would rather take a 25 % drop this year than 40% next.

Buyers of course have nothing to lose by waiting.

Sellers Need to Reduce Prices

[ralphmalph]

mikelivingstone, on Jun 13 2009, 02:35 PM, said:

Valerius, I hate to tell you this, but the crash is back on full speed ahead. Loads of 5-10% reductions this week and last. Here are some from Guildford all since the 10th June one reduced from £1.5m down to £1.3m

Anyone who bought in the last 2 months has lost money already, and if they are lucky enough not to have exchanged, they should probably withdraw their offer now whilst they still can. The next leg will 10% down by Christmas.







and

Reductons in asking prices are not really relevant. If that house in Guildford was 1.3 million at the peak of the market then that is not crash in asking prices. Now if it sold for 2mill in 2007, then that would be relevant.

The interesting data is when the current sales prices that are being achieved in this spring bounce pop up on nethouseprices and such. Then we can really see what is going on in the market.

This post has been edited by ralphmalph: 13 June 2009 - 02:07 PM