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How Long Will This Bull Trap Last


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#31 ZR_Seanie

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 08:22 PM

yeah i am now seeing my employer starting to strugle and we have been ok so far.
sad really.
all this green shoots crap is just prolonging the pain.

i think i am an average chap on an average wage and i have a 15K deposit saved up and for all its worth its F all with the current average at 154-158.

#32 kilroy

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 08:24 PM

We could always look at the last UK housing crash or the one before.Oh, except they didn't have a "Bull Trap".

it was a flat one.

#33 ZR_Seanie

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 08:25 PM

90% LTV Mortgage thread this coudl throw a spanner in the works at keeping prices up

http://www.housepric...howtopic=116667

#34 Harry Monk

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 08:28 PM

Other than not having rent inflate at 10,000% per year......... ;)



Just face it Hamish, this Autumn is Game Over for the Bulls.
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"Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defence against a homicidal maniac." -George Orwell.

#35 libspero

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 08:36 PM

We could always look at the last UK housing crash or the one before.Oh, except they didn't have a "Bull Trap".


Nationwide figures showed 3 months of rising prices through April / May / June in 1991.

Now look back at the home page and ask yourself if 1991 was the bottom.

IMHO that was the bull trap.


P.S. Add exactly 18 years to that ;)

Edited by libspero, 08 June 2009 - 08:39 PM.

And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw


#36 deadman

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 08:36 PM

Just face it Hamish, this Autumn is Game Over for the Bulls.


Absolutely 100% guaranteed.

I'll be the first to reiterate the fact with you come the time Harry.
[

#37 libspero

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 08:37 PM

Other than not having rent inflate at 10,000% per year......... ;)


Better than being in debt with the kind of interest rates THAT would attract!

And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw


#38 andykn

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 09:09 PM

it was a flat one.


You can't have a flat bull trap. It won't catch many bulls.
1/ Bull food: http://news.bbc.co.u...ml/nn2page1.stm
2/ How to be a stupid bear: Distrust official figures only when you don't like them.
3/ We have nearly 30 million wage earners and only 17 million owner occupied houses - "average" wages do not buy "average" houses.

#39 andykn

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 09:18 PM

Nationwide figures showed 3 months of rising prices through April / May / June in 1991.

Now look back at the home page and ask yourself if 1991 was the bottom.

IMHO that was the bull trap.


P.S. Add exactly 18 years to that ;)


And then adjust for inflation...


Trouble is you can't have it both ways. Adjusted for inflation it isn't a "bull trap", not adjusted for inflation, prices didn't fall very far or very fast after that.
1/ Bull food: http://news.bbc.co.u...ml/nn2page1.stm
2/ How to be a stupid bear: Distrust official figures only when you don't like them.
3/ We have nearly 30 million wage earners and only 17 million owner occupied houses - "average" wages do not buy "average" houses.

#40 libspero

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 09:25 PM

And then adjust for inflation...

Trouble is you can't have it both ways. Adjusted for inflation it isn't a "bull trap", not adjusted for inflation, prices didn't fall very far or very fast after that.


Prices went up for three months. No debate there I fancy.

If you choose to consider 1991 the bottom of the previous crash then that is fine, we will just agree to differ.. but if I were you I would be praying to the gods of high inflation.

(I could do with a decent pay rise ;) )

And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw


#41 interestrateripoff

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 09:31 PM

The ONLY way to reinflate houses is to print money and give it directly to public sector.

This would lead to disaster within weeks. - its pretty much what Mugabe did.

If this happens bulls - you are not in a better position than anyone else.

You are still made of meat like the rest of us


At the minute QE is for the bankers only, but if it does leak out into public sector wages Brown would achieve what Mugabe did for Zimbabwe.

Hyperinflation is just as destructive as deflation. There are no ideal outcomes.

Proof that Brown had repeated IMF / OECD / BIS warnings over house prices and did nothing!!!
Looting: The Economic Underworld Of Bankruptcy For Profit
The exponential growth of debt and the unsustainability of debt
The logic of HPI @ 10% YoY means your £100k house would be worth £1.38bn in 100 years
Paying down my mortgage with money found on the street

It's time to sue the Bank of England / Federal Reserve for GROSS NEGLIGENCE
If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution or you default

 

"The trouble with the world was that prices were so low that only the rich people could buy and the aim of the Conference was to raise them to a point where it would again be possible for poor people to buy something."

"Northern unemployment is an acceptable price to pay for curbing southern inflation" Eddie George former Governor of the Bank of England

New digest on the credit crisis and economy Part2 Part 3

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#42 andykn

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 09:58 PM

Prices went up for three months. No debate there I fancy.

If you choose to consider 1991 the bottom of the previous crash then that is fine, we will just agree to differ.. but if I were you I would be praying to the gods of high inflation.

(I could do with a decent pay rise ;) )

I'm saying IF you use actual prices they did rise in 1991 BUT THEN the bottom was not very far after and not much below that level.
IF you use inflation adjusted figures THEN there was no "bull trap" BUT the bottom was much later.

You can't use actual prices to show a bull trap then point to an inflation adjusted graph to show a lower further bottom.

You choose which ONE chart to use. You can't bolt different charts together.
1/ Bull food: http://news.bbc.co.u...ml/nn2page1.stm
2/ How to be a stupid bear: Distrust official figures only when you don't like them.
3/ We have nearly 30 million wage earners and only 17 million owner occupied houses - "average" wages do not buy "average" houses.

#43 HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 10:13 PM

The frustrating thing is, in a way, this is a bull trap.

It is only a temporary rise, and it will revert to more (but much smaller) falls over next winter.

But what the bears fail to realise is that not all bull traps occur close to the top. Some occur close to the bottom. Not so much a bull trap, but rather a premature recovery.... ;) It would be just as appropriate to call the coming falls over winter a bear trap.

The point being, that the stereotypical "lifecycle of a bubble" chart was designed more for highly liquid equities or commodities bubbles. It has no precedent in UK housing, even in previous bubbles.

Whilst it is illustrative in terms of phase, it is entirely innacurate in terms of timing and scale.

#44 libspero

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 10:15 PM

I'm saying IF you use actual prices they did rise in 1991 BUT THEN the bottom was not very far after and not much below that level.
IF you use inflation adjusted figures THEN there was no "bull trap" BUT the bottom was much later.

You can't use actual prices to show a bull trap then point to an inflation adjusted graph to show a lower further bottom.

You choose which ONE chart to use. You can't bolt different charts together.


I understood perfectly (although I disagree on two levels).

Firstly, people understand things in nominal terms, not real.. therefore a bull trap could have the same psychological effect even in an inflationary environment where it would appear flat on an inflation adjusted graph.

Secondly, you are assuming that we will have a high inflation environment again which would give the same real/nominal falls as the last crash.
Although I am not saying that you will necessarily be wrong, you are making a fairly big assumption. (Hence my point, I look forward to a good pay rise this year ;) )

And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw


#45 BecksMyCat

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Posted 08 June 2009 - 10:18 PM

Fek knows, but my missus is putting her foot down and we are gonna be doing some vieiwings..... so hopefully it will get a shift on cos if I offer on somethin and it gets accepted, I will then re-neg day before exchange... failing that i will end up over paying.

That all said if I do end up buying I am gonna stop watching the news and not log on to HPC again, this will prevent me feeling a little psd


Well I am glad I didn't sell to you!!! I don't agree with either party re-negotiating that late in the process. It is a stressful enough process anyway without that cr@p. Why not just negotiate the price you think is right at the beginning.

Edited by BecksMyCat, 08 June 2009 - 10:19 PM.





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