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#1 dst

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 02:06 PM

Just came across this site and Iím finding it extremely useful.

My personal situation is that I moved up from Birmingham to start a new job in Altrincham 4 months ago. I stay in a B&B during the week and would like to move the wife and kids up. I have been looking around the area and would like to buy something in Hale. Iím looking for a 3-bed semi and have been monitoring the prices but they donít seem to be coming down.

Are prices in Hale stubbornly high in your opinion? Or have they come down recently? Are they likely to come down at all (or further)? Whatís a ďreasonableĒ price to pay for a 3-bedder in Hale in the current climate?

#2 Venger

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 03:15 PM

Just came across this site and Iím finding it extremely useful.

My personal situation is that I moved up from Birmingham to start a new job in Altrincham 4 months ago. I stay in a B&B during the week and would like to move the wife and kids up. I have been looking around the area and would like to buy something in Hale. Iím looking for a 3-bed semi and have been monitoring the prices but they donít seem to be coming down.

Are prices in Hale stubbornly high in your opinion? Or have they come down recently? Are they likely to come down at all (or further)? Whatís a ďreasonableĒ price to pay for a 3-bedder in Hale in the current climate?


Do you have the Firefox browser and the Property-Bee plugin ?

Having that combo will allow you to view any area on Rightmove and will show all price changes for individual properties, including all the cuts in asking prices.

It makes monitoring prices much easier and gives you a grip on the market and market conditions in Hale and all other areas. You won't regret installing them.

Random examples of Rightmove search viewed with the Property-Bee plugin:

Posted Image

Today this Hale 3-bed semi caught my eye at £159,000.

http://www.rightmove...y-25247159.html
http://www.propertyf...mp;id=504792517

Maybe not the most desirable road and house-price history for that road shows prices stayed reasonably affordable since 2001 compared with other areas. Slightly out of Hale centre (is it strictly Hale?), and someone else's eye because it went STC "under offer" within the month. Pitched at a price significantly lower than competing properties, and houses will sell - but I for one expect much better value in 6 months, 12 months, 2 years and more - even in Hale. Renting is not dead money when house prices are dropping many thousands of pounds in value every 6 months.

How are all the 3-bed semis in Sarah's Chadderton area in the £159,000 range going to compete with better Hale 3-bed semis at the same or lower asking prices?

29 April 2009
* Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Sold STC'

22 April 2009
* Title changed: Old Meadow Lane,Altrincham,Cheshire Lane,Hale,Cheshire [Found by n/a]

21 April 2009
* Brief Description changed: Spacious 3 bed semi, in a popular position within easy reach of Hale Village and Altrincham Town Centre. semi detached with off road parking and a good sized rear garden - IDEAL FOR THOSE WITH YOUNG FAMILIES. The house has been well maintained but is now ready for modernisation throughout. Ideal for families property does need updating throughout, and represents a superb opportunity for prospective purchasers to re-style the accommodation comprises: entrance hall, living room, dining roo... property to their own tastes and requirements. Accommod... [Found by n/a]

05 April 2009
* Initial entry found. [Found by n/a]



#3 Nomadd

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 04:51 PM

Just came across this site and Iím finding it extremely useful.

My personal situation is that I moved up from Birmingham to start a new job in Altrincham 4 months ago. I stay in a B&B during the week and would like to move the wife and kids up. I have been looking around the area and would like to buy something in Hale. Iím looking for a 3-bed semi and have been monitoring the prices but they donít seem to be coming down.

Are prices in Hale stubbornly high in your opinion? Or have they come down recently? Are they likely to come down at all (or further)? Whatís a ďreasonableĒ price to pay for a 3-bedder in Hale in the current climate?


I'd say hold your fire. Hale has been a bit of a mixed-bag over the last year or so. Initially prices were very sticky, but then reality started to bite late last year. Lot's of reductions on the bigger detached stuff (check Home.co.uk and check out the price movements.)

I've been keeping an active track of Hale/Hale Barns/Bowden for the last 18 months or so. I'd say the "worst" is still yet to come. Of the stuff I'm looking at (4 bed detached) only 1 (gulp!) of the properties I've been tracking has sold. There is still a fair whack of denial taking place, which I guess is understandable from people who overstretched themselves. I can see prices falling hard from this Autumn onwards. Still, the bottom may be many years away...

Not sure what your budget is? Unless it's large, I'd say avoid Hale and look at Sale or Timperley. Much better value for money, IMHO. That's if you really must buy now, of course.

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#4 Mal Volio

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 04:56 PM

I'd say avoid Hale and look at Sale or Timperley. Much better value for money, IMHO. That's if you really must buy now, of course.


Maybe. I was born and brought up in Sale and I'd rather live in Hale or Alty any day.
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#5 Nomadd

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 05:18 PM

Maybe. I was born and brought up in Sale and I'd rather live in Hale or Alty any day.


Me too. To both points you mention. But I'd only want to live in the better parts of Hale/Alty.

The OP didn't give a price bracket. And anywhere nice in Hale is still likely to cost big bucks. Sure, you could plonk yourself on one of the busier roads, or one of the new build estates in Alty, but I can't say that would be my first choice.

If you get yourself down the Southern and Southwestern reaches of Timperley, you are on the Hale/Alty boarders anyhow, and in some pretty nice residential locations. Much - much - better than some of the "rougher" stuff that both Hale and Alty have to offer. And the guy has a wife and kids, so maybe blowing all of his budget on a house in Hale is not the highest priority?

More info. required, I guess. :)

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#6 R K

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 05:33 PM

Just came across this site and Iím finding it extremely useful.

My personal situation is that I moved up from Birmingham to start a new job in Altrincham 4 months ago. I stay in a B&B during the week and would like to move the wife and kids up. I have been looking around the area and would like to buy something in Hale. Iím looking for a 3-bed semi and have been monitoring the prices but they donít seem to be coming down.

Are prices in Hale stubbornly high in your opinion? Or have they come down recently? Are they likely to come down at all (or further)? Whatís a ďreasonableĒ price to pay for a 3-bedder in Hale in the current climate?


Do you know the area at all?

I've lived in the area on and off over many years. As with most places it depends what your budget is, whether you need access to M/way network or a walk to the train/tram station, what ages your kids are re schooling, whether you want to be able to walk to local shops etc. Then you need to figure out which roads/areas are expensive/sought after and which are cheaper/to be avoided and so on.

'3-bed semi' in Hale can run from under £200k to over £1m.

In my experience there is a glut of newbuild/redevelopments at the top end and some of these appear to have been either mothballed or sold on part completed, suggesting the banks are demanding their money back.

I know several friends/acquaintances who have put houses up for sale over the last few months in the £500-800k region, who are expecting to have to wait 12 months + to sell. In one case they had an offer £50k under asking (which was I think £50k less than the agents recommended price anyway) and they rejected it. Another who put it on at what seemed a peak price to me, only to drop it by about £80k a few weeks later after little response and who has now decided not to sell (doesn't need to).

So, from what I've seen it appears to me (anecdotally) to be a mixed bag and where people aren't forced sellers they're just sitting tight. That tends to be in the better areas, in the less sought after areas I've seen quite a few fairly hefty price reductions over the last 12 months or so but still very few sales. So, I guess it's well worth going in low and seeing what response you get. But, from my recollection of the 90s crash, (and some on here don't share my recollection) the good properties in the prime areas, particulatly in the catchment areas of the top primary and secondary/grammar schools (Halebarns/Bowdon/Altrincham) kept their prices well, and in fact subsequently strongly outperformed many of the other localities over the next decade. I know, because I was trying to find one to buy at the time.

I personally would steer well clear of Timperley/Sale (it's all a bit of an amorphous mass of 1930s suburbia - But that may be you thing in which case there's endless to choose from) as an alternative and head over to somewhere like Bramhall where it is a good quality 'family' area without the in your face Black Range Rover Sport/Bentley bling attitude of Hale/Bowdon or perhaps some parts of Wilmslow or Knutsford. Again you need to be selective. Unless of course you like the whole black Range Rover/Bentley bling thing (I don't) in which case Hale is the only place to be - but you'll pay for it.

Edited by Red Kharma, 01 May 2009 - 05:37 PM.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#7 Venger

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 08:35 PM

But, from my recollection of the 90s crash, (and some on here don't share my recollection) the good properties in the prime areas, particulatly in the catchment areas of the top primary and secondary/grammar schools (Halebarns/Bowdon/Altrincham) kept their prices well, and in fact subsequently strongly outperformed many of the other localities over the next decade. I know, because I was trying to find one to buy at the time.


You're smart, so I don't want to bait you or argument with you.

On another forum I found and recorded these figures for Altrincham / Hale, which, if approximately accurate would support your recollection.

1989 = +57.72%,
1990 = -14.14%
1991 = +14.93%
1992 = -6.10%
1993 = +0.11%
1994 = -2.53%
1995 = +1.24%
1996 = +5.04%


Trouble is, I think you're way off the mark with this thinking.

I know several friends/acquaintances who have put houses up for sale over the last few months in the £500-800k region, who are expecting to have to wait 12 months + to sell. In one case they had an offer £50k under asking (which was I think £50k less than the agents recommended price anyway) and they rejected it. Another who put it on at what seemed a peak price to me, only to drop it by about £80k a few weeks later after little response and who has now decided not to sell (doesn't need to).


Not needing to sell won't protect you from asset price falls. It sounds like wishful thinking. Property values have risen to extremes through many years of credit expansion, and in my view, there is very little savings to back it all up.

It is true that there are many successful professionals, business owners, old-money, inherited wealth who own top-end homes in Hale who are not under any pressure to sell at values below what they believe their homes are worth. I just don't think it will stop the value of their homes falling, as other top-end home-owners will begin to lower their asking prices and accept lower offers over time. Not everyone can be in the position of not needing to sell.

You'd need near enough everyone comfortable with no need to sell at lower prices if you expect to keep values up - and that would assume potential buyers are willing to pay whatever money for the top-end in Hale, regardless of any sense of value.

Edited by friday, 01 May 2009 - 10:14 PM.


#8 R K

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Posted 02 May 2009 - 12:02 AM

You're smart, so I don't want to bait you or argument with you.

On another forum I found and recorded these figures for Altrincham / Hale, which, if approximately accurate would support your recollection.



Trouble is, I think you're way off the mark with this thinking.



Not needing to sell won't protect you from asset price falls. It sounds like wishful thinking. Property values have risen to extremes through many years of credit expansion, and in my view, there is very little savings to back it all up.

It is true that there are many successful professionals, business owners, old-money, inherited wealth who own top-end homes in Hale who are not under any pressure to sell at values below what they believe their homes are worth. I just don't think it will stop the value of their homes falling, as other top-end home-owners will begin to lower their asking prices and accept lower offers over time. Not everyone can be in the position of not needing to sell.

You'd need near enough everyone comfortable with no need to sell at lower prices if you expect to keep values up - and that would assume potential buyers are willing to pay whatever money for the top-end in Hale, regardless of any sense of value.


Thanks for that table of prices. It seems to accord with my recollection.

Yes, I agree with you about price setting. It was simply what I've noticed in particular areas. There will always be some people who need to move of course. At the top end asking prices appear to have dropped around 10-15%, but not much seems to be shifting and with the lag before sold prices are available on nethouseprices it's a bit difficult finding out what they've actually sold for. My anecdotal was simply what I've come across where people with no mortgages may wish to move, downsize etc and they seem to have a price in mind which clearly they're not getting offered, so instead they've decided to stay put. I'm sure that's down to a specific age/demographic though. I don't happen to know anyone personally who is a forced seller, but I'm sure they exist. I've been having a look at the lower end tonight and there is more available especially on the Altrincham side of Hale Rd towards the football ground. I don't know much about that area so unfortunately can't comment on the prices there.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#9 Nomadd

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Posted 02 May 2009 - 10:23 AM

Not needing to sell won't protect you from asset price falls. It sounds like wishful thinking. Property values have risen to extremes through many years of credit expansion, and in my view, there is very little savings to back it all up.


+1

It is true that there are many successful professionals, business owners, old-money, inherited wealth who own top-end homes in Hale who are not under any pressure to sell at values below what they believe their homes are worth. I just don't think it will stop the value of their homes falling, as other top-end home-owners will begin to lower their asking prices and accept lower offers over time. Not everyone can be in the position of not needing to sell.


And that is already happening.

The truth is - at least from the recent figures I can gather - was that the "top end" nature of Hale/Bowden left many believing they were almost immune from HPC. The stickiness of prices up until late last year was a good indication of that. Even a year after the Oct 07 peak, it was still very hard to find anything with a decent reduction in Hale/Bowden. Now the picture seems much clearer: the large chops in prices of Oct/Nov last year on most of the properties I track still hasn't shifted them. Of the 4 properties I thought had sold in Hale, 3 of them have since come back on the market with reduced prices. And all of the newer additions to Rightmove/Primelocation/etc. in the area are at much reduced prices to those which have been listed a year or more - and even these newer additions are failing to sell.

Aside: There is also the silliness of Watersons at the moment, who seem to think that the way to shift these properties is by jacking the prices back up. At least 3 properties I watched fail to sell last year in Hale have now been relisted by Watersons with a 5% price increase. Guess they must know something we don't? :)

My bro-in-law's business partner is looking to buy in Hale at the moment (in fact he's been looking since late last year.) His budget is £1/1.5 mill. Problem is, he can't shift the nice 4 bed detached he's got in Knutsford. It's priced keenly - he's no fool to the reality of the property market, as it's where he made his fortune - but he's had absolutely no offers. And all the time this impasse carries on, the prices keep slipping.

My advice to the OP would still be just to rent for awhile. I can't see prices being any higher over the next 5 years - in fact I believe (other's will disagree) they will be significantly lower - so why jump in now when he doesn't need to? His call, really. At least we are all giving him something to think about! :)

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#10 R K

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Posted 02 May 2009 - 06:22 PM

Not needing to sell won't protect you from asset price falls. It sounds like wishful thinking. Property values have risen to extremes through many years of credit expansion, and in my view, there is very little savings to back it all up.


My point was transactions set prices, as we know.

Going back to the table you posted above following a rise of 57% in '89, 14% falls in '90 were cancelled out by 14% gains in '91, i.e. net zero, followed by approx -8% over the next 3 years over the bottom.

Not needing to sell of course doesn't protect anyone from notional asset price falls in a balance sheet sense, but unless you do have to sell during the period in question that is largely irrelevant. unless we enter a protracted period of deflation over many years, which I don't think is particularly credible.

So, due to the limited size of the market in each price bracket and house type a buyer would have to do pretty well or get lucky to have bought during the '90 period before recovery in '91, or else see perhaps a 6-8% reduction during 92/3/4. That was exactly what I encountered at the time. There are only so many properties in your specific price/location/type available, if at all. As we know inflation masked real price drops during that period too. I bought elsewhere where there was better availability and was very happy with the outcome.

Moving to somewhere like Sale or Stretford where 3 bed semis are virtually a commodity item and with different demographics then I would tend to agree with you. The other micro-market which appears very vulnerable in Hale/Bowdon is the newbuild/redevelopments which as I pointed out above are either being shelved or for the most part remain on the market stubbonly at/near peak market prices. I'd expect as the year progresses we'll see some of these guys go bust/get repo'd (I'd rather not post builder names on here - but it's clear who is in that category) and that should see prices come down, although the strange thing is that with 20% average market falls, that doesn't seem to be reflected in prices. But no sales, no price discovery I guess. Very similar so far to 90-93 which is what I suspected would largely be the case. What is less clear to me is to what extent BOE will be able to get inflation back into the system, at what pace and over what timescale.

If a potential buyer hasn't sold their house then they're not a buyer. Demand is only demand if it's backed by the ability to pay, so again, until transactions increase there's little/no price discovery irrespective of what overall market prices are doing. A very strange set of circumstances certainly.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#11 Mr Yogi

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Posted 02 May 2009 - 07:47 PM

I too would suggest renting for a while first.

Hale is a very attractive place, but it is bloody expensive! Always has been, always will be. In my view there are many places in the South Manchester area with similar attractions but offering much better value. Renting for a couple of years would allow you sus out where you would be happiest without making a commitment to an depreciating asset.

Red Kharma suggests Bramhall (AKA Debtors Retreat). Cheadle, Gatley, or Cheadle Hulme are other possibles that are a lot cheaper than Hale but still convenient for Altrincham.

I'd definitely be keeping my powder dry.

Edited by Mr Yogi, 02 May 2009 - 07:50 PM.

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#12 dst

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Posted 02 May 2009 - 10:13 PM

Thanks to everyone for their insight and advice. Much appreciated.

I'm looking at Hale specifically because of the schools. After reseaching the various schools in the area, I'd like to be in the catchment area for WellGreen Primary on Briony Avenue and also (in a few years time) Altrincham Boys Grammar. So although I know I'll get more for my money away from Hale (Sale/Timperely/etc) I'm kinda constrained with the catchment area(s).

In terms of budget, I could stretch to about £270K I don't want to spend more than £250K. A few weeks ago I had a look at some houses around the Grove Lane & Delahays Road area just to get an idea of what the market was like. A couple of the houses were about £270-260K but they're too small or need work doing.
http://www.rightmove...a...on&index=10

http://www.rightmove...a...on&index=10

The 2 or 3 places I saw that fit the bill are closer to £300k or more. :angry:

http://www.rightmove...a...on&index=10

http://www.rightmove...a...on&index=10

I just installed Property Bee (cheers Friday!) and can see that there doesn't seem to be that much movement on prices. :angry:

I suspect it makes sense to hold fire for the time being.

#13 Venger

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Posted 02 May 2009 - 11:45 PM

Have you STR, Red Kharma?

Not needing to sell of course doesn't protect anyone from notional asset price falls in a balance sheet sense, but unless you do have to sell during the period in question that is largely irrelevant. unless we enter a protracted period of deflation over many years, which I don't think is particularly credible.



I'm taking some time to think-on all the points you made in both posts. Not because I outright disagree with you, although I do lean to that deflation and Nomadd's outlook - but you made some good points which add to my uncertainty.

It is a limited view, but my younger brother mixes with quite a few of the Hale crowd, with a number who have parents with mid to top-end quality homes in Hale. In most instances the children doing alright for themselves on their own bat.

There is a lot of wealth in Hale and I haven't picked up any in-distress signals from the what appear to be the wealthier families that we know. Quite a number who fit what you've described, of not having to sell, with no signs of struggling for money at all.

Intelligent wealth often values money and profitable opportunity. What about the opportunity to sell into a falling market in the balance sheet sense - downsize or rent - and buy back in later at a cheaper value? You wouldn't do that if you didn't expect quality Hale homes to be available in fair number at lower prices in the future though. Not if you expected the majority of owners to not move significantly on asking price throughout the crash years, happy to wait till whenever the balance sheet value has recovered. Deaths and other circumstances might require properties to be sold for price discovery.

Many of the families I get some reports on at the top-end are unlikely to sell to follow my theory. They seem to be more like what you have outlined, or not needing to sell and not having to accept a £50K lower offer - except I doubt that can remain true for every quality home-owner in Hale.

#14 Venger

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Posted 03 May 2009 - 12:44 AM

My bro-in-law's business partner is looking to buy in Hale at the moment (in fact he's been looking since late last year.) His budget is £1/1.5 mill. Problem is, he can't shift the nice 4 bed detached he's got in Knutsford. It's priced keenly - he's no fool to the reality of the property market, as it's where he made his fortune - but he's had absolutely no offers. And all the time this impasse carries on, the prices keep slipping.


Interesting info. I don't concentrate my searches on Rightmove for Hale alone, with quite a few searches in other areas of South Manchester / Cheshire (not fully decided on where I'll be buying yet). Unless it really is a property I've really focussed on, I rarely catch the remove and re-listing 5% higher.

Your brother-in-law; I understand it. Pricing keenly and hoping to get a buyer willing to pay near asking. There are a few such buyers out there; an associate of mine has just bought in February and the seller really got a result, with very near asking price.

He could sell though and quickly if he wanted to. Risk is though that wouldn't be able to get equivalent percentage drop in value on an upsize move... if RK theory will hold true during all of the crash.

#15 Venger

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Posted 03 May 2009 - 03:12 AM

Property One: 13, Grove Lane, Hale. £259,950

That tall hedge. Is it Leylandii? It might be irrational but I fear those Leylandii wars, possibly awkward neighbours, blocking light and tough roots spreading and possibly doing damage.

Found the house-number on the photo of the front of the house, in the brochure. No data at houseprices.co.uk, but the data has the adjoining house, with what looks like a large garage or greenhouse, number 11:

08/09/2007
£215,000
11, Grove Lane, Hale, Altrincham, Greater Manchester, WA15 8JF


Posted Image

===============================================

Property Two: 74, Grove Lane, Hale [2]. £269,500

House number in the brochure.

houseprices.co.uk

11/12/2000
£120,500
74, Grove Lane, Hale, Altrincham, Greater Manchester, WA15 8JG


With next-door (76) last selling on 14/10/2005 at £230,000.
===============================================

Property Three: 43, Woburn Drive [between Hale & Hale Barns]. £315,000

The info at houseprices.co.uk shows this info for when it last sold and the price it went for:

19/12/2005
£280,000
43, Woburn Drive, Hale, Altrincham, Greater Manchester, WA15 8NA

===============================================

Property Four: Delahays Road, Hale

[House number not found] Full postcode: WA15 8DT

I'm neutral about all those 4 properties. I'll risk RK's displeasure in that I believe homes at all levels in Hale will fall much further in value. What especially interests me is people seeking to cash-in on the credit-expansion which has pushed up the values of their homes to incredible levels, pay-off debt, or to add profits into their retirement funds.

Delahays Road, Hale. Brief Description changed: HOME SWAP AVAILABLE - If you have a smaller, lower value property with atleast 3 beds and are looking to move to something larger, then our client could be interested. Call



I just installed Property Bee (cheers Friday!) and can see that there doesn't seem to be that much movement on prices. :angry:

I suspect it makes sense to hold fire for the time being.


:)




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