[Pytyr]

ReJoyce, on 02 March 2010 - 01:38 PM, said:

Things are in Oxfordshire, everything remotely attractive that comes on is selling at asking price - maybe 10% from peak, maybe less.
eg.:
http://www.rightmove...y-14879040.html
This has already had two full asking price offers from renters with STR funds. I have looked (1 amongst 5 viewings on Monday, 1 amongst 3 second viewings today according to agent - I think I believe them as they stacked the appointments so there was a minimum of 3 onMonday and 2 today) and stand agog at the level of interest.

Regards
J

Oxfordshire avg asking price Dec 2009 £348k +4% YoY
Oxfordshire avg selling price Dec 2009 £271k +4% YoY down 17% from peak (July 2008)

[MinceBalls]

Plan B, on 05 March 2010 - 09:04 AM, said:

Good question how low should the pound be ?
we are the 6th largest exporter in the world
with a weak pound we get more trade and services.
saves jobs and factories.
plus tourism and Johnny foreigner invests here !

swings & roundabouts.

It's not swings and roundabouts though is it?

We are NET importers so whilst we might increase exports it won't help (that and the fact that every country is trying to export their way out of this recession / depression which just isn't possible)

Foreigners investing in the UK? Would you invest in a high risk currency? This is what I don't understand about comments like this and 'London house prices will stay high because of foreign investors'. Look, if you invest in the UK - property / business - you are invesing in the POUND! And that is a risky bet - even if the house you purhased in Sterling went up, if stirling drops 20% you are still sitting on a loss. Invest in the the UK, invest in the pound. No thanks!

[wren]

And declining North Sea oil land gas production makes the balance of trade worse.

It could also in time threaten energy security.

[Redhat Sly]

Mike2000, on 05 March 2010 - 08:43 AM, said:

low worthless currency means high cost to import goods means high consumer prices means high inflation means high IR means low houses.

Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm no economist.

That's what should happen in a normal country but in our corruptly run cesspit could we get:

low worthless currency means high cost to import goods means high consumer prices means high inflation but without high IR means high houses as cash holders in fear of inflation get rid of their cash and others are enjoying cheaper mortgage payments for so long?

With a base rate of 0.5% we have CPI 3.5% RPI 6.5% and factory gate inflation accelerated to 4.1% today the highest in 14 months.

Or are those buying now being suckered before the markets eventually drive up interest rates? It seems obvious our lot have no intention to unless forced.

On the subject of higher interest rates who is going to pay them? Where is the money coming from?

[0.5%]

MinceBalls, on 05 March 2010 - 11:45 AM, said:

It's not swings and roundabouts though is it?

We are NET importers so whilst we might increase exports it won't help (that and the fact that every country is trying to export their way out of this recession / depression which just isn't possible)

Foreigners investing in the UK? Would you invest in a high risk currency? This is what I don't understand about comments like this and 'London house prices will stay high because of foreign investors'. Look, if you invest in the UK - property / business - you are invesing in the POUND! And that is a risky bet - even if the house you purhased in Sterling went up, if stirling drops 20% you are still sitting on a loss. Invest in the the UK, invest in the pound. No thanks!

http://www.fdimagazi...re_2010_11.html

Yeah... swings & roundabouts. Be prepared for disappointment, because it's more complicated then you think.

[DrBubb]

Bloo Loo, on 02 March 2010 - 03:04 PM, said:

many dont know...we are back to normality.
moving forwards...things are going to get worse.

After "Normal" ... comes "Crappy"

Property market 'returning to normal'
The property market is returning to more normal conditions as increasing numbers of people put their homes up for sale, research has showed.
23 Mar 2010

Estate agents in England and Wales reported a 5.6pc jump in the number of properties they had on their books during March, according to Hometrack, the housing intelligence group.

But the number of new buyers registering with estate agents rose by only 3.3pc during the month, the first time that increases in potential sellers have outstripped rises in new buyers since January 2009. The group said the supply of homes on the market had already jumped by 10.2pc during the first two months of the year, compared with a rise of only 7pc during the whole of 2009.

Home repossessions rise by 15pc Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research, said: "Talk of improved market conditions and prices returning to near peak levels in some markets are encouraging a growing number of households to sell their properties.

"Many registered buyers are also sellers, and, as they gain the confidence to move, so they need to put their homes on the market. Overall, it seems that we are moving from a sellers' market back towards something more akin to normal market conditions."

House prices in England and Wales edged ahead by 0.3pc during the month, to stand at an average of £158,100, 1.3pc higher than a year earlier

/more: http://www.telegraph...-to-normal.html

This post has been edited by DrBubb: 28 March 2010 - 02:53 AM

[DrBubb]

Why you may want to DOWNSIZE OR STR NOW... from an HPC thread :

Confounded, on 04 May 2010 - 08:58 AM, said:

I thought we had a good 15-20% to go from late 08 prices and then I felt it would have been possible to put in a sustainable bottom with sufficient government intervention. Gordon Browns intervention at the stage he chose has set us up for even greater falls. I think the bottom is 40% away from here in 3-5 years. The area under the graph (number of people buying at bubble prices) is very important and this will impact on post bubble prices.

Income to house price ratio

Great chart !
I predicted the Top in July 2007, just before the Peak (finally, after an earlier attempt.)
And called the bounceback rally that UK house prices are now in, back in early April 2009.

The predicted Rebound, to be followed by a lower Low


I think we will see a big slide beginning to be very noticeable soon after the election.
And the new PM will have every reason to "get the bad news out" quickly, once he has been elected.

I have a long-standing prediction (since Feb.2010 and much earlier) of a 30-40% fall from where we are,
and it is good to see that your chart backs that up.

This post has been edited by DrBubb: 05 May 2010 - 03:32 AM

[Kazuya]

DrBubb, on 05 May 2010 - 04:31 AM, said:

Why you may want to DOWNSIZE OR STR NOW...

I actually have a friend who is STR'ing now. Accepted offer over 2 weeks ago at a realistic price but is very worried that if things go pair-shaped straight after the election then the buyers will back out.

[DrBubb]

Kazuya, on 05 May 2010 - 03:44 AM, said:

I actually have a friend who is STR'ing now. Accepted offer over 2 weeks ago at a realistic price but is very worried that if things go pair-shaped straight after the election then the buyers will back out.

Yes, that is a real risk under the outdated system the UK uses for property transactions.

In HK, you get 2-3% upfront, and then the rest of 10% within 10 business days.
If the buyer backs out, you keep that, and can sue for the rest.

Why does the UK use a system from about 1830? I think it is incredibly stupid, but it must serve
some vested interests in the UK - laywers probably.

[buytoilet]

DrBubb, on 05 May 2010 - 04:49 AM, said:

Yes, that is a real risk under the outdated system the UK uses for property transactions.

In HK, you get 2-3% upfront, and then the rest of 10% within 10 business days.
If the buyer backs out, you keep that, and can sue for the rest.

Why does the UK use a system from about 1830? I think it is incredibly stupid, but it must serve
some vested interests in the UK - laywers probably.

BDEV heading towards 12 month low

[DrBubb]

Property prices slip back again in May

By Nikhil Kumar .. Sat, 5 June

The recovery in Britain's housing market showed further signs of stagnation as figures from the Halifax revealed that prices fell for a second month in a row in May.

Following a 0.1 per cent fall in April, property prices fell by another 0.4 per cent in last month, the mortgage lender said yesterday.

The figures surprised many City analysts who had anticipated news of a modest increase during May. However, average sale prices in the three months to May were still 7 per cent higher than they were in the same period in 2009, and 8.3 per cent higher than in April last year.

Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight, said the figures added to worries about the housing market outlook. "Prices could come under near-term downward pressure if plans to raise the rate of capital gains tax on second homes and buy-to-let properties leads to a surge of properties coming on to the market," he warned.

/see: http://www.independe...ay-1991817.html

This post has been edited by DrBubb: 07 June 2010 - 08:38 AM

[Pent Up]

according to Halifax your prediction of a winter 90/10 top of the bear market rally/bull trap appear to be spot on with the peak being December.

[Jazzman]

Bottom may be 2013 for many areas.

[PropertyGuru]

DrBubb, on 07 June 2010 - 08:10 AM, said:

Property prices slip back again in May
By Nikhil Kumar
Saturday, 5 June 2010SHARE PRINTEMAILTEXT SIZE NORMALLARGEEXTRA LARGE
The recovery in Britain's housing market showed further signs of stagnation as figures from the Halifax revealed that prices fell for a second month in a row in May.

Following a 0.1 per cent fall in April, property prices fell by another 0.4 per cent in last month, the mortgage lender said yesterday.

The figures surprised many City analysts who had anticipated news of a modest increase during May. However, average sale prices in the three months to May were still 7 per cent higher than they were in the same period in 2009, and 8.3 per cent higher than in April last year.

Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight, said the figures added to worries about the housing market outlook. "Prices could come under near-term downward pressure if plans to raise the rate of capital gains tax on second homes and buy-to-let properties leads to a surge of properties coming on to the market," he warned.

you forgot to post a stolen yahoo chart in this one, Blubb.


ALL HAIL SPLINE, THE NEW BUBB!

[DrBubb]

Pent Up FTBer, on 07 June 2010 - 08:15 AM, said:

according to Halifax your prediction of a winter 90/10 top of the bear market rally/bull trap appear to be spot on with the peak being December.

Not exactly. But you cannot expect perfection in such calls
There was a dip after the mid-winter rise, and then another rise into March/April
driven by seasonal factors. But it does look now like a genuine slide has begun.

Allowing for the seasonal bump, I think the forecast was quite okay (so far.)

Like Property Guru, I can only give respect to Spline's market calls.
His technique is different from mine, since he uses Mortgage Approval data.
But we seem to have come round to the same conclusion : The "Bear Market Rally"
looks like it is over, and a more serious slide may be underway.

This post has been edited by DrBubb: 07 June 2010 - 08:44 AM