[tccambs]

deeplyblue, on May 23 2009, 03:12 PM, said:

On another point. I suspect that NE prices have held up quite substantially, because they did not rise as dramatically in the boom years. Did see a graph somewhere that showed this, but don't have it to hand.

db

A myth perpetuated by EAs. Was true of the 1980s boom, but not this one. Halifax calculator says:

"House Price Calculator

An average house, in the South East region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £338381 in 2007 Q2.

A change of 238.4 percent.

An average house, in the North region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £316691 in 2007 Q2.

A change of 216.7 percent."

Very much similar. The Nationwide's UK figure is skewed upwards by the London figures, where the boom has been larger.

"An average house, in the Greater London region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £404316 in 2007 Q2.

A change of 304.3 percent."

[PhoneyMcRingRing]

I think the boom has been just as big in the NE. The prices were not so high to begin with but they certainly grew beyond all sensible levels. I think it is potentially the area we'll see the greatest drops (eventually) as there isn't anything to support prices. Not many jobs or industries up there. Too reliant on public service jobs too, which wont be a good thing in 2010.

Phoney

PS Jedburgh LOL!!!!

[deeplyblue]

tccambs, on May 23 2009, 03:23 PM, said:

A myth perpetuated by EAs. Was true of the 1980s boom, but not this one. Halifax calculator says:

"House Price Calculator

An average house, in the South East region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £338381 in 2007 Q2.

A change of 238.4 percent.

An average house, in the North region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £316691 in 2007 Q2.

A change of 216.7 percent."

Very much similar. The Nationwide's UK figure is skewed upwards by the London figures, where the boom has been larger.

"An average house, in the Greater London region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £404316 in 2007 Q2.

A change of 304.3 percent."

I got my impression from the graph at houseprices.uk.net



I looked especially at the period 2006-2009, where I do think the curve is slightly flatter than the English total, as well as the London one. However, I'm prepared to concede that this is only 1 bit of evidence.

I would like to think that NE prices will also fall by 25%-30%, but I suspect that, overall, and looking at selling not asking prices, the NE is only seeing a 10%-15% fall. If it's not flatter because of restraint during the boom, then it may just be stubbornness. "You lot may take that sort of price reduction, but I'm too proud for that sort of thing."

Example, I non-forced sale:

Rightmove: Hexham £400K

It's showing up as new, but has been on the market for 2 years now, with different agents. I don't know whether the owner is intransigent about prices, but the asking price in the summer of '07 was £425K, when it wasn't selling and it has only recently been reduced to £399,950. That's about 5% below a slightly unconvincing peak price. It's not typical, because most vendors in this position seem to have decided simply to "sit out" the crash - or "wait for the right buyer."

So now the market in the NE is, I suspect, also more sluggish than it is elsewhere - but that's purely an impression, not backed up with hard facts.

If anyone has further data which might help understand this one, I'd love to see it.

db

This post has been edited by deeplyblue: 25 May 2009 - 03:12 AM

[tccambs]

db, I think your graph pretty much sums up our point. The 'England' line is very similar to the 'North East' line, if you skewed it with a bit of the 'London' line. Compared to other non-London regions, our story has been very similar. The only proviso being that the boom started a bit later, I reckon about 2001 compared to 1999, but a crazy 2003/4 saw us catch up.

[freeufc]

Looking to move back to Gosforth as loved it there when I was a kid. I now love in London and dont have have never liked it, I went to a all girls school that is now closed but would like my sons to go to RGS. - Does anyone know of good estate agents in the area.

[CHF]

freeufc, on 23 June 2010 - 10:43 PM, said:

Looking to move back to Gosforth as loved it there when I was a kid. I now love in London and dont have have never liked it, I went to a all girls school that is now closed but would like my sons to go to RGS. - Does anyone know of good estate agents in the area.

Just use your move, mouseprice, and property bee. But jan forster and rook matthew sayer are big

[deeplyblue]

tccambs, on 20 May 2009 - 09:31 AM, said:

I'm going to stick my neck out here, as I know some people have a moral objection to private schooling, but I really don't understand why you'd be willing to pay £100k more for a house to get a better school catchment when you could send each kid to RGS for £60k spread over seven years. That way, you can live where you want to without worrying about it, and still be guaranteed a great quality education.

Agree that RGS still a good place to send your children. Remember, however, that costs only start with the fees - you pay more for everything from school uniforms to Cadet Corps kit and - worst of all - having your kids keep up with the gear that the Smith-Jones' kids can afford. And, of course, since it's a grammar school, there is an entrance exam.

On the plus side, if your kids are really bright then there are scholarships and if they are inclined to take on the colour of their surroundings then having them in an atmosphere where bright=good and hard work pays off can be a real plus. Too many of the state schools are filled with people who will make life difficult for you if seem too bright, and really difficult for a boy who does his homework meticulously. (Girls get away with being a lot brighter and more conscientious than boys do. OTOH they have to, by law, have pink bedrooms with pink heart decorations. I've seen an awful lot of pink bedrooms in the last couple of years.)

Oh, yes, and RGS now (finally) take girls as well. There are some other private schools in Newcastle - Dame Allen's used to be one of the places to send girls before RGS would let them in. As to the others, I'm not well enough informed to comment.

One last thought - with the kids at RGS (or other private schools) you can, of course, live wherever it's convenient for work. But remember that your kids will have to come home through the territory of the local comp. Make sure their RGS uniform won't get them into trouble - which takes you back to one variety or other of Jesmond/Gosforth and one or two other enclaves.

db