tccambs, on May 23 2009, 03:23 PM, said:
A myth perpetuated by EAs. Was true of the 1980s boom, but not this one. Halifax calculator says:
"House Price Calculator
An average house, in the South East region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £338381 in 2007 Q2.
A change of 238.4 percent.
An average house, in the North region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £316691 in 2007 Q2.
A change of 216.7 percent."
Very much similar. The Nationwide's UK figure is skewed upwards by the London figures, where the boom has been larger.
"An average house, in the Greater London region valued at £100000 in 1995 Q2 would be worth £404316 in 2007 Q2.
A change of 304.3 percent."
I got my impression from the graph at houseprices.uk.net
I looked especially at the period 2006-2009, where I do think the curve is slightly flatter than the English total, as well as the London one. However, I'm prepared to concede that this is only 1 bit of evidence.
I would like to think that NE prices will also fall by 25%-30%, but I suspect that, overall, and looking at selling not asking prices, the NE is only seeing a 10%-15% fall. If it's not flatter because of restraint during the boom, then it may just be stubbornness. "You lot may take that sort of price reduction, but I'm too proud for that sort of thing."
Example, I non-forced sale:
Rightmove: Hexham £400K
It's showing up as new, but has been on the market for 2 years now, with different agents. I don't know whether the owner is intransigent about prices, but the asking price in the summer of '07 was £425K, when it wasn't selling and it has only recently been reduced to £399,950. That's about 5% below a slightly unconvincing peak price. It's not typical, because most vendors in this position seem to have decided simply to "sit out" the crash - or "wait for the right buyer."
So now the market in the NE is, I suspect, also more sluggish than it is elsewhere - but that's purely an impression, not backed up with hard facts.
If anyone has further data which might help understand this one, I'd love to see it.
This post has been edited by deeplyblue: 25 May 2009 - 03:12 AM