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#31 Sledgehead

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:29 PM

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Thanks for confirming what we thought: now is not a good time to buy. Your words, not mine. Cheers mate : WELCOME TO THE BEAR CAMP!


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Edited by Sledgehead, 13 June 2005 - 08:32 PM.

Bubble Thinking & The Wisdom of the Property Bulls (click the pink arrow to see it in full!):

QUOTE(BTLlondon @ Jun 13 2005)
You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat." ........Now is a good time to buy View Post

QUOTE(nodumsunreader @ Aug 10 2005, 03:48 PM)
.....if your wished for HPC actually happened ..... The only winners will ....be those who own property View Post

QUOTE(TheLittleGuy @ Aug 13 2005, 02:16 PM)
I think that the market will eventually have a proper crash ... I used to be an HPC believer, but that was a long time ago View Post

#32 OnlyMe

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:30 PM

Ooops, it's not just us nutters then.

BTL, if you've left without reading then maybe you'll you'll see something similar in the FT, in a few months/years when it has all gone pear-shaped - maybe in the obituary column.

..........

Volcker: U.S. Economic Crisis Imminent
Friday, June 10, 2005

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker said he doesn't see how the U.S. can keep borrowing and consuming while letting foreign countries do all the producing.

It's a recipe for American economic disaster.

On Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported bluntly that "Mr. Volcker thinks a crisis is likely."

Volcker believes that investor confidence could fade "at some point," he said, with "damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates."

He believes a serious economic crisis is likely unavoidable as the U.S. economy is struggling with what Volcker sees as a hopelessly unsustainable relationship with the rest of the world.

"If I were a biologist I'd call this a perfect example of symbiosis," Volcker said during a February speech at Stanford University.

"Contented American consumers matched against delighted foreign producers. Happy borrowers matched against willing lenders. The difficulty is, the seemingly comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely."

Experts seem to agree that the current situation can't last.

But will there be a smooth and manageable rebalancing of the global economy - created by a slow drop in the dollar combined with a spike in foreign demand – or will the U.S. currency suddenly collapse, with skyrocketing interest rates that lead us into a global recession?

Volcker believes a crisis is unavoidable, and he claims that investors will lose their confidence "at some point," creating serious dilemma for "both exchange markets and interest rates."

As the United States faces the threats of a potential housing bubble, a massive trade deficit and the lowest level of American savings in history, the jury is out on the Federal Reserve's actions over the past five years.

The Wall Street Journal reports that while the Fed acknowledges that its response to the 2000 Dot-Com crisis is partly to blame for current economic conditions, it claims it had no other viable course of action.

The Fed slashed interest rates, and Congress provided extreme tax cuts giving American households unprecedented buying power. While the government's response did help the U.S. economy grow, it also created immense debt.

To alleviate this problem, at some point, U.S. consumers will have to curb spending and concentrate on saving – plus the economy will be forced to forego foreign investment.

Experts agree that the reaction to the economic problems after 9/11 took the country into uncharted territory. While many say the Fed's rate cuts and President Bush's tax initiatives were the right answer for recovery, no one can be sure.

"We have done what no other economy has done before, faced with an asset bubble," says Lawrence Lindsey, a one-time Fed governor and Bush adviser.

"This is the first time in history the textbook economic policy ... was used, and worked. The problem is, once you finish that chapter of the economic texts, you turn the page and the page is blank - because no one has gone through the process before."

Some economists warn that the Fed has simply replaced the Dot-Com bubble with a housing bubble that is ready to burst, draining consumer spending, driving foreign investors away from U.S. markets and nurturing numerous other conditions that could lead to a serious recession.

Says Volcker: "I think we are skating on increasingly thin ice. On the present trajectory, the deficits and imbalances will increase.

"At some point, the sense of confidence in capital markets that today so benignly supports the flow of funds to the United States and the growing world economy could fade. Then some event, or combination of events, could come along to disturb markets ..."

By contrast, Volcker's successor is perhaps a bit less circumspect. He said, "The number of forecasts of crises ... is far in excess of the number of crises that actually occur. There is something equivalent to an invisible hand which continuously is readdressing market imbalances to reach equilibrium."

Volcker, however, doesn't have as much faith in market forces, which oddly enough brings him to the conclusion that Greenspan and the Fed are doing the right thing by raising interest rates to hold down inflation.

The former Fed chairman thinks we need to make sure foreign investors hold their confidence in the U.S. because they're the ones doing all the investing. They need to know "those trillions of dollars they are piling up are going to be protected against inflation."

Edited by OnlyMe, 13 June 2005 - 08:32 PM.

"Asians make things and sell them to Americans, who borrow money from their suppliers (on the inflated value of their houses) in order to continue living beyond their means. Asians take their profits and either relend them to Americans...or use them to buy more productive capacity, in America and elsewhere.

For those who wonder where this trend will lead, we offer a guess: The average American will be left with a shoeshine kit and instructions on how to say 'please' and 'thank you' in Chinese...."

Bill Bonner.

Socialists want socialism for everyone else, but capitalism for themselves, while capitalists want capitalism for everyone else, but socialism for themselves.
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#33 BTLlondon

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:39 PM

If you think this is a clever trap I feel you must have missed the larger point, as ever.

So I am saying that prices are not going to crash and there was an especially good window to achieve an especially good deal a few months back. I did not say now is “not a good time to buy” just that there was an ever better window a few months ago.

As for now being a good time to buy, with population, employment, and wages rising (as is in my post) and interest rates about to fall now is a good time to buy, of course.

Trying to compare a good party with a great party still means a good time was had by all.

#34 ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:42 PM

Thanks for confirming what we thought: now is not a good time to buy. Your words, not mine. Cheers mate : WELCOME TO THE BEAR CAMP!
:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

F*** me! Its not a good time to buy. Thanks for the advice BTLondon. I definetly wont be buying now. :P

Oh yes and welcome to the Bear Camp. Look like you are the new 'play thing' for the bears! :lol:

#35 Sledgehead

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:43 PM

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


If you think this is a clever trap I feel you must have missed the larger point, as ever.

So I am saying that prices are not going to crash and there was an especially good window to achieve an especially good deal a few months back. I did not say now is “not a good time to buy” just that there was an ever better window a few months ago.

As for now being a good time to buy, with population, employment, and wages rising (as is in my post) and interest rates about to fall now is a good time to buy, of course. 

Trying to compare a good party with a great party still means a good time was had by all.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


But prices have dropped since then, so now must be a better time to buy, right?

Can you run the "missed boat" by me again. I'm confused. And from your post, you don't sound too sure yourself!!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

PS : do you apply such razor sharp logic skills when deciding on a purchase?

Edited by Sledgehead, 13 June 2005 - 08:50 PM.

Bubble Thinking & The Wisdom of the Property Bulls (click the pink arrow to see it in full!):

QUOTE(BTLlondon @ Jun 13 2005)
You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat." ........Now is a good time to buy View Post

QUOTE(nodumsunreader @ Aug 10 2005, 03:48 PM)
.....if your wished for HPC actually happened ..... The only winners will ....be those who own property View Post

QUOTE(TheLittleGuy @ Aug 13 2005, 02:16 PM)
I think that the market will eventually have a proper crash ... I used to be an HPC believer, but that was a long time ago View Post

#36 urban_hymn

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:44 PM

BTLers are first in the queue the rest well well behind.


<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Nobody's queing to buy anywhere - you can take your pick wherever you go, at your leisure, hardly anything's selling, there's no shortage, rents aren't gaining traction........................queue? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
What is lost is never gained again
I've cast the spell that eternity chains
No more to cry O' mortal soul
The astral path is now your fortuitous role

#37 Guest_Charlie The Tramp_*

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:48 PM

and interest rates about to fall now is a good time to buy, of course.


You must be a fan of Roger Bootle. Just a reminder he predicted last year that rates would be 3.5% mid 2005. Just because he predicted the last crash he now believes he is the top economic guru. I would rather go by the feeling in my water. <_<

#38 ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:49 PM

But prices have dropped since then, so now must be a better time to buy, right?

Can you run the "missed boat" by me again. I'm confused. And from your post, you don't sound too sure yourself!!

:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

PS : do you apply such razor sharp logic skills when deciding on a purchase?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am confused now. Have the bears missed the boat "good prices blah blah blah" or not?

#39 ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:53 PM

You must be a fan of Roger Bootle. Just a reminder he predicted last year that rates would be 3.5% mid 2005. Just because he predicted the last crash he now believes he is the top economic guru. I would rather go by the feeling in my water<_<

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sure its not just time to empty that colostomy then off to bed? :huh:

#40 BTLlondon

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:54 PM

Every month that idles past whilst you “wait to buy after a crash” is a boat missed.

Why? Because prices are only going to keep rising and become ever more unobtainable for potential FTB’s who take your advice and sit on the fence.

Every month there is a boat saying, “Please get on me you monkey or you’ll never buy a property and miss out on capital gains and security.” Yet you chose to ignore it.

Please get on soon.

I will confess my original boat should have been called "ESPECIALLY good time to buy boat" or "the window of opportunity boat"

#41 Sledgehead

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:55 PM

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


now is a good time to buy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



So is it a good time to buy or have we missed the "good time to buy" boat? Which one of your above assertions is wrong?

Edited by Sledgehead, 13 June 2005 - 08:58 PM.

Bubble Thinking & The Wisdom of the Property Bulls (click the pink arrow to see it in full!):

QUOTE(BTLlondon @ Jun 13 2005)
You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat." ........Now is a good time to buy View Post

QUOTE(nodumsunreader @ Aug 10 2005, 03:48 PM)
.....if your wished for HPC actually happened ..... The only winners will ....be those who own property View Post

QUOTE(TheLittleGuy @ Aug 13 2005, 02:16 PM)
I think that the market will eventually have a proper crash ... I used to be an HPC believer, but that was a long time ago View Post

#42 ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:56 PM

Every month that idles past whilst you “wait to buy after a crash” is a boat missed.

Why? Because prices are only going to keep rising and become ever more unobtainable for potential FTB’s who take your advice and sit on the fence.

Every month there is a boat saying, “Please get on me you monkey or you’ll never buy a property and miss out on capital gains and security.” Yet you chose to ignore it.

Please get on soon.

I will confess my original boat should have been called "ESPECIALLY good time to buy boat" or "the window of opportunity boat"

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Now theres MORE THAN one boat!?! :rolleyes:
Think I might just wait for the flotilla in a couple of years. Thanks for the confusing advice anyway.

Edited by shakerbaby, 13 June 2005 - 08:58 PM.


#43 Freelance Mycophagist

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:58 PM

Now theres MORE THAN one boat!?!  :rolleyes:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



That should take the wind out of his sails...

#44 BTLlondon

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:59 PM

Michael Jackson verdict about to be announced……… 10:02pm.

#45 Guest_Time 2 raise Interest Rates_*

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Posted 13 June 2005 - 08:59 PM

Does writing in bold make your point more effective?

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat." As I said from Nov 04 to May 05 when discounts were achievable. Now prices are firm and the “cheaper deal boat” has sailed away.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

BTLlondon What part of today's figures from the ODPM didn't you understand? The average property in the UK now costs £181,832, down from £183,346 in March.




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