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Long Term Housing Shortage


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#1 HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:15 AM

Britain could have the biggest population in Europe by 2050 and be the third biggest recipient of migrants in the world, UN projections suggest.

They predict net immigration will average 174,000 a year up to 2050, swelling the population to 72 million.

http://news.bbc.co.u...ics/7938173.stm

I knew the population was supposed to be increasing over the next few decades, I had no idea it was by that much.

Thats a net increase of a million people every 5-6 years from now until then.

Given that we only have, theoretically, a million empty homes, (which is not really that accurate as many are second homes, derelict, homes for sale, etc), how many houses need to be built if we add a million people every 5-6 years?

If we do not add enough houses, HPI is inevitable, so what are the realistic chances of adding enough houses to accomodate 2 million more people a decade, and how many houses would it take?

#2 Number79

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:16 AM

http://news.bbc.co.u...ics/7938173.stm

I knew the population was supposed to be increasing over the next few decades, I had no idea it was by that much.

Thats a net increase of a million people every 5-6 years from now until then.

Given that we only have, theoretically, a million empty homes, (which is not really that accurate as many are second homes, derelict, homes for sale, etc), how many houses need to be built if we add a million people every 5-6 years?

If we do not add enough houses, HPI is inevitable, so what are the realistic chances of adding enough houses to accomodate 2 million more people a decade, and how many houses would it take?


either we make sure that they are all indian or polish so that they can live 20 to a house otherwise we close our borders and there will be far less pressure.

#3 gravity always wins

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:20 AM

http://news.bbc.co.u...ics/7938173.stm

I knew the population was supposed to be increasing over the next few decades, I had no idea it was by that much.

Thats a net increase of a million people every 5-6 years from now until then.

Given that we only have, theoretically, a million empty homes, (which is not really that accurate as many are second homes, derelict, homes for sale, etc), how many houses need to be built if we add a million people every 5-6 years?

If we do not add enough houses, HPI is inevitable, so what are the realistic chances of adding enough houses to accomodate 2 million more people a decade, and how many houses would it take?

Don't believe everything you read in the papers.
"There is no effective way to meaningfully reduce emissions without negatively impacting a large part of the economy"
Alan Greenspan 2007 Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve

"The gross national product includes air pollution and advertising for cigarettes and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and jails for the people who break them. GNP includes the destruction of the redwoods and the death of Lake Superior. It grows with the production of napalm, and missiles and nuclear warheads... It measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile"
Senator Robert Kennedy

#4 mikthe20

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:33 AM

Don't believe everything you read in the papers.


Exactly - the naivety of these population forecasts is ridiculous.
"Ignorance is strength" (1984)

#5 NotMyHouse

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:35 AM

http://news.bbc.co.u...ics/7938173.stm

I knew the population was supposed to be increasing over the next few decades, I had no idea it was by that much.

Thats a net increase of a million people every 5-6 years from now until then.

Given that we only have, theoretically, a million empty homes, (which is not really that accurate as many are second homes, derelict, homes for sale, etc), how many houses need to be built if we add a million people every 5-6 years?

If we do not add enough houses, HPI is inevitable, so what are the realistic chances of adding enough houses to accomodate 2 million more people a decade, and how many houses would it take?


Yes. Immigrants on the minimum wage are really going to push up the price of houses. Prices can only rise if people have the ability to pay.

And how many immigrants will we get if the UK is in a recession and there are no jobs for these people?

This is the same BBC that in 2007 quoted some professor who thought house prices were going to go to 30x salary.

#6 time 2 raise interest rates

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:48 AM

Well if this is the case, you can guarantee the BNP will be running the country sooner than later, this
is what Labour don't get, if they don't stop this now things will get messy.

#7 uptherebels

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:50 AM

http://news.bbc.co.u...ics/7938173.stm


If we do not add enough houses, HPI is inevitable, so what are the realistic chances of adding enough houses to accomodate 2 million more people a decade, and how many houses would it take?


Ok. Just build them. Build lots and lots of them, employing builders and all the other trades needed, therefore helping to reduce unemployment. Sell them, employing lots of EAs and solicitors and bankers, therefore helping to reduce unemployment. The new owners will need to furnish them, and will buy lots of carpets, furniture, etc, therefore helping to reduce unemployment. Sorted. Next question?

#8 spivT

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:54 AM

http://news.bbc.co.u...ics/7938173.stm

I knew the population was supposed to be increasing over the next few decades, I had no idea it was by that much.

Thats a net increase of a million people every 5-6 years from now until then.

Given that we only have, theoretically, a million empty homes, (which is not really that accurate as many are second homes, derelict, homes for sale, etc), how many houses need to be built if we add a million people every 5-6 years?

If we do not add enough houses, HPI is inevitable, so what are the realistic chances of adding enough houses to accomodate 2 million more people a decade, and how many houses would it take?


trolling once again, when you posted this link initially it was a post about predicted population expansion by 2050....it was clear you were fishing and alluding to that pointing to a housing supply crisis, but as usual you trying to be coy meant no-one could be arsed to rise to the bait.

Now you come out and actually say what you were thinking. :lol: being coy not working for your trolling attempts ?

Why don't you stick to banging the drum about QE, dual income housholds blah blah. Instead of rearing the supply/demand fallacy.

clown.

#9 blankster

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 08:58 AM

I have a book published in the early 1970's where it was forecast that Britain's population would have doubled by the year 2000, to something like 110 million. Obviously the forecast was wrong, but the 'population explosion' was a big issue then, one that was taken as an indisputable fact, a bit like global warming warming is today.

Edited by blankster, 12 March 2009 - 09:00 AM.

King of the unexplained edit.
And now also....."probably the greatest dunce on these forums" !!!!!
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#10 Namaste

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 09:00 AM

trolling once again, when you posted this link initially it was a post about predicted population expansion by 2050....it was clear you were fishing and alluding to that pointing to a housing supply crisis, but as usual you trying to be coy meant no-one could be arsed to rise to the bait.

Now you come out and actually say what you were thinking. :lol: being coy not working for your trolling attempts ?

Why don't you stick to banging the drum about QE, dual income housholds blah blah. Instead of rearing the supply/demand fallacy.

clown.


Yeah I noticed he changed the title to something a bit more 'dramatic'.

Hamish, do you honestly think anyone knows what is going to happen 40 years from now? Its like saying "in forty years time, I could be a billionaire"*. Yep, can't wait. :rolleyes:


* please no comments about impending hyperinflation and everyone being a billionaire, blah, blah

#11 HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 09:02 AM

*snip*


Of course it's relevant to housing, but as I didn't specifically mention that in the first post it got moved to off topic.

And if you believe that the population will not grow in the next few decades you're incredibly naive.

What sort of strange Spivvy world do you live in, where a million houses (most of which aren't actually available anyway) will fit 12 million people......

Muppet.

#12 A.steve

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 09:03 AM

I knew the population was supposed to be increasing over the next few decades, I had no idea it was by that much.


The population of Britain isn't "supposed" to be doing anything of the sort.

Our population could increase to 72 million by 2050, or it could reduce to 12 million. The one thing that history has proven time and time again is that predictions decades into the future tend to be hilariously inaccurate.

Try again, unfounded fear of mass migration will not convince me of rampant house price inflation just-around-the-corner.

#13 HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 09:03 AM

please no comments about impending hyperinflation and everyone being a billionaire, blah, blah


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

#14 0q0

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 09:06 AM

This country has to call a halt to this open borders nonsense, there simply isn't the room here, we are already densely over-populated in many regions.

People from all countries here are welcome, on a waiting list and points system, but not just to turn up in their masses any more. It's putting a strain on everything from doctors' surgeries to housing charities.

Although many immigrants worked hard and made a real success of their life here to go on to afford expensive homes, the vast majority coming in don't. Most end up in local authority or 2+ to a room private housing.

EDIT to add: although they can let sophisticated French women and nice Nordic blondes in, yes please Mr Woolas !

Edited by The Last Bear, 12 March 2009 - 09:08 AM.


#15 Sinking Feeling

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Posted 12 March 2009 - 09:09 AM

As we know from newspaper articles in March 2007 that said that the average house price would be 300,000 by 2010, extrapolation is often an incorrect science. Numbers always tend to rise and fall - apart from Labour government spending which is the official exception to the rule!
People take part in the ups and downs of popular feeling not only as entrepreneurs but also as savers and consumers. In the boom they confidently put their savings in the illiquid form of securities and mortgages while in the depression they hold them mistrustfully on demand deposit at the banks. It is of special significance that the bankers themselves are also subject to the psychological ebb and flow. So it is that in the boom, infected by the general ardent optimism, they loosen the reins of their credit policy, sift less strictly the demands for credit, look less fastidiously at collateral, overestimate the productivity of the credits they grant and are satisfied with less liquidity. In the depression the memory of the sins of the boom, and the " frozen credits " with which they atone for these sins, cause the banks to fix the most extreme requirements for their liquidity and to subordinate to this all other considerations.

Wilhelm Ropke 1931

In the summer of 1931 a Labour Government suddenly sagged at its knees and fell dead. High Finance had killed it as High Finance will kill the next Labour Government, and the next again............

Excerpt from The Financiers and the Nation, Thomas Johnston, 1934





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