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Winning In The Market Takes Nerve - Going Against Crowds I was "sitting on the fence, waiting for the turn" Rate Topic: -----

#1 User is offline   DrBubb 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 03:01 PM

Winning in the market takes nerve - going against crowds
I was "sitting on the fence, waiting for the turn"
=====================================

TOO MUCH BEARISH NESS ?

Have you seen the market today?

The Last Five days : SPX versus Major Oils (XLE), Crude (USO), and Semi-conductors (SMH) ... update
Posted Image

= = = =

Latest Commodity Watch Radio podcast, recorded Monday when markets were down big.

Sitting on the Fence, Waiting for the Turn:

Trader Michael Hampton is looking for a turn in the markets, but at the moment it hasn’t come now. He likes oil and oil stocks, but for now he finds himself ’sitting on the fence’ .

http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/
"The next move, when it comes, will be a very dramatic one."
"10-20 or 30% in a short time." :

Dominic asks : "Astrology? Is that now all mumbo-jumbo ?"
RESULTS should speak for themselves. (I'm a practical person. If it works, I want to use it.)
"I live on HPC!" Actually, that's not true anymore. I now live "on the other side" ... of the planet.

#2 User is offline   libspero 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 03:11 PM

View PostDrBubb, on Mar 10 2009, 03:01 PM, said:

Winning in the market takes nerve - going against crowds
I was "sitting on the fence, waiting for the turn"
=====================================

TOO MUCH BEARISH NESS ?


"The next move, when it comes, will be a very dramatic one."
"10-20 or 30% in a short time." :


Not quite sure what you are getting at old bean, you think the stockmarket has bottomed and that it is up all the way from here, or just a bounce?

What are you basing it on.. or just charting?
And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw

#3 User is offline   PotNoodle 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 03:18 PM

I think it was generally accepted, and fairly obvious, that successive bad
news reports were not driving the FTSE and Dow any lower.
There was a clear resistance to further selloffs and this was a clear indicator that
an upturn was in the offing.
Hardly surprising that we got a mini rally yesterday/today.

#4 User is offline   DrBubb 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 03:46 PM

View Postlibspero, on Mar 10 2009, 04:11 PM, said:

Not quite sure what you are getting at old bean, you think the stockmarket has bottomed and that it is up all the way from here, or just a bounce?
What are you basing it on.. or just charting?

Try listening to the Podcast

Surfice it to say, I bought a boatload last Thursday, mostly Oils and some Berkshire Hathaway
"I live on HPC!" Actually, that's not true anymore. I now live "on the other side" ... of the planet.

#5 User is offline   Joey Buttafueco Jr 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 03:48 PM

maybe we could get another prediction from FP.....

#6 User is offline   PotNoodle 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 04:00 PM

View PostDrBubb, on Mar 10 2009, 03:46 PM, said:

some Berkshire Hathaway


Good luck

#7 User is offline   grumpy-old-man-returns 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 04:01 PM

View PostNoel, on Mar 10 2009, 03:48 PM, said:

maybe we could get another prediction from FP.....


I never tire of this one.... :D :D

#8 User is offline   libspero 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 05:05 PM

View PostDrBubb, on Mar 10 2009, 03:46 PM, said:

Try listening to the Podcast

Surfice it to say, I bought a boatload last Thursday, mostly Oils and some Berkshire Hathaway


Mmm... astrology? You might be right about a bounce but I think you are brave to mention that :unsure:
And I tell you we have learned from past mistakes.
Just as you cannot spend your way out of recession, you cannot, in a global economy, simply spend your way through recovery either.

(Gordon Brown, Labour Party Annual Conference, 29 September 1997)

So, housing affordability is better than it has ever been, but no-one can take advantage of this because they can't afford the houses. I see.
cybernoid - 7th August 2010

Gambling promises the poor what property promises the rich - something for nothing
George Bernard Shaw

#9 User is offline   Frank Sidebottom 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 05:20 PM

SPX numbers to keep an eye on (in ascending order) are:

720; 742; 780; 805 (give or take 2-3 points)

Unless 666 is broken down again - then, who knows.

My 2p

Edit: I'm actually sitting this one out until I've seen how big the pull back is. I'm with Dr B on the general thrust, and it could go straight up for the next week or two, but I'm still a little nervous this may be a bull trap. It's all based on Pandit's (Citi) internal memo - which is about as flimsy an excuse to rally I can think of.

This post has been edited by Red Kharma: 10 March 2009 - 05:32 PM

"It's the levels, stupid!" - Mervyn King, 12th August 2009
"It's the discontractionary deflatabubbles, stupid!" - Red Karma 2009
WTIC oil will likely trade at $25-30 before it trades at $200 - Red Karma, 6th September 2009.
Stop worrying about
China's $700bn reserves - Mervyn printed half that in 6 months
We need fiscal rectitude. We've got rectal fistitude
We have now entered the Great Rebalancing (Western Debt 'Jubilee') 2007-201?

Red Karma's Law "Bad debt drives out good"


#10 User is offline   ParticleMan 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 05:48 PM

5Y TIPS might be an interesting play, too. :)

#11 User is offline   arsenal20 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 05:50 PM

is this the case for the FTSE as well

#12 User is offline   sillybear2 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 06:01 PM

View PostDrBubb, on Mar 10 2009, 03:46 PM, said:

Try listening to the Podcast

Surfice it to say, I bought a boatload last Thursday, mostly Oils and some Berkshire Hathaway

Why buy Berkshire Hathaway, cut to the chase and just sell some puts yourself :lol:
Brown might be gone but his £925bn £5 Trillion debts will haunt us forever. Forcing us to borrow from tomorrow to pay for the mistakes of yesterday and, in the process, destroying the opportunities of today.

No bankers were harmed during the making of this economic disaster.

#13 User is offline   Methinkshe 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 06:03 PM

View PostDrBubb, on Mar 10 2009, 03:46 PM, said:

Try listening to the Podcast

Surfice it to say, I bought a boatload last Thursday, mostly Oils and some Berkshire Hathaway


Suffice

#14 User is offline   Nicholas Cage 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 06:08 PM

Nothings happened so far

#15 User is offline   Methinkshe 

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Posted 10 March 2009 - 06:15 PM

View PostNicholas Cage, on Mar 10 2009, 06:08 PM, said:

Nothings happened so far


You mean that you are discounting today's 300 point rally on the DOW?

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