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#3331 2buyornot2buy

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 11:47 AM

they havnt went on the infrastructure drive that most other counteries have done in the past.


Which countries? When? How much?

You do realise the UK debt is sitting at 1 TRILLION :o Plus another few TRILLION on pension liabilities and PFI :o

#3332 Belfast Boy

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 03:52 PM

On a recent show - Max Keiser pointed out that for every pound printed to keep interest rates low and protect borrowers there are two pounds lost by savers and pensioners through low interest rates and inflation.

Edited by Belfast Boy, 15 February 2013 - 03:56 PM.

"There will never be another period, in our lifetime, when property changes hands for the multiples of salary that we reached recently. The one-off credit event that we have witnessed, over the last ten years, is gone and it is not coming back!" Dances with Sheeple

"The mistake I think lots of people are making, is that they are assuming the real estate market, in a few years time, will exist in the same economic conditons that exist today." VedantaTrader

#3333 BelfastVI

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 05:05 PM

Figures please. I believe you have just made this up.


This isn't the same as saying "In the Housing Executive the benefits account for 80% of the rents they receive".


The Housing Executive calculates LHA using either the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the 30th percentile of local market rents, whichever results in the lowest value

30th percentile of market rents

The 30th percentile figures shown here are derived from six months worth of lettings information, collected up to the end of September 2012.

This means that in each market area, if there were 100 properties available for letting of the appropriate size, the LHA would be based on the 30th lowest rent of those 100 properties. In other words tenants who receive LHA should have access to the bottom 30% of the market.

By definition the grant aid will not meet the average rent in each area (and I agree with this).

I looked at Clanmil Accounts and there is no breakdown. However I heard it was something like 60% from benefit. It come us in the discussions about direct payments to Landlords.

#3334 BelfastVI

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 05:07 PM

On a recent show - Max Keiser pointed out that for every pound printed to keep interest rates low and protect borrowers there are two pounds lost by savers and pensioners through low interest rates and inflation.

That would imply that there was more money in savings than borrowings. However, I know better than to argue with Mr Keiser.

The inflation we have experienced is mainly down to fuel & energy(outside the UK control) and food, again largely outside the UK control as the price of fertilizer, grain and weather patterns are the excuse for this. (Although horses will be alot cheaper from now on).

Edited by BelfastVI, 15 February 2013 - 05:09 PM.


#3335 2buyornot2buy

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 05:24 PM

Its the 30th percentile and the figures are supplied by EAs. Need i say more.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy, 15 February 2013 - 05:26 PM.


#3336 BelfastVI

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 05:28 PM

Its the 30th percentile and the figures are supplied by EAs. Need i say more.

I got the figure of 30 percentile from the HE. where did you see the 50th figure?

#3337 2buyornot2buy

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 05:28 PM

It was only changed to 30 in 2011. I'm not even sure the LHA bands changed much here if any when the percentile changed.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy, 15 February 2013 - 05:29 PM.


#3338 2buyornot2buy

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 05:31 PM

You can't say its based on a percentile when HB makes up the majority of the market. You would need to strip the HB effects out of the market and then calculate average rent. It plays too big a role because it is the market.

#3339 Shotoflight

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 07:15 PM

There are debates on that. QE on its own, IMHO has failed to stimulate the economy. It has strengthened the balance sheets of the banks. To stimulate the economy they need to create employment and spending. They will also need either QE or borrowing to do this. To date all they have done is borrow and QE. they havnt went on the infrastructure drive that most other counteries have done in the past. They are still sticking with Plan A.


Some views


Treasury attempts to boost lending have 'failed', MPs say


http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-21467734


Treasury has put taxpayer 'at risk' with QE


The Treasury has put billions of pounds of taxpayer money at risk by sticking state guarantees on “a series of expensive experiments” that it does not fully understand, an influential group of MPs has warned.

http://www.telegraph...sk-with-QE.html

The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) claimed the Chancellor’s department does not have any clear goals for either the Bank of England’s £375bn quantitative easing (QE) programme or its £80bn Funding for Lending scheme (FLS), both of which are backed by the taxpayer, and had no means of monitoring their progress.

Margaret Hodge, chair of the committee, said: “The Treasury has not convinced us it understands either the risks it has taken on by indemnifying the Bank against losses on QE or the expected economic benefits... The Treasury seems to be embarking on a series of expensive experiments, indemnified with taxpayers’ money.”

The Treasury has resorted to providing guarantees and indemnities in an attempt to drive the recovery without increasing public borrowing. However, such “contingent liabilities” carry a risk of loss as the state has pledged to bear some or all of the downside.

With QE, the taxpayer has fully indemnified the Bank. Under the FLS, high street lenders can swap risky bundles of loans for low-risk Treasury bills. Both schemes were designed to help boost growth, but carry the potential for losses.

“The indemnity creates substantial taxpayer exposure,” the committee said in its report on the Treasury’s 2011/2012 accounts.

Giving evidence to the committee in October, Sir Nicholas Macpherson, the Treasury’s Permanent Secretary, described QE as “an experiment, and we won’t know the ultimate answer for many years”. Although the scheme was in profit in 2011/2012, he warned that there was a risk of losses from QE.

“At some point interest rates will start rising... and at that point you could sustain quite big losses.

#3340 Shotoflight

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 07:20 PM

Landmark for sale at a bargain price

http://www.belfastte...e-29070835.html

The elegant Scottish Mutual Building was bought by Co Tyrone-based Jermon – led by pharmacist Peter Dolan – in 2007.

According to reports then it had a price tag just under £10m.

It is now for sale through commercial property agents CBRE for £1.75m.

Mr Dolan's firms bought dozens of offices and shopping centres during the late 1990s and 2000s, including the Linen Green Centre in Dungannon and Fanum House in Great Victoria Street, and even ventured into property in Poland.

But after the property crash his investments dropped drastically in value and many were repossessed by lenders.

Many other former Jermon assets have been sold.

LaSalle Investment Management bought the 120,000 sq ft Artizan shopping centre in Dumbarton, Scotland, for around £4.85m.

But Jermon had bought it for £17.8m in 2006.

Last year Killymeal House in the Gasworks, south Belfast, was sold by Nama to JM & JT Partnership for £3m.

As well as Donegall Arcade, Jermon also owned the building which houses Mothercare in Castle Place.

Strabane Retail Park and Laharna Retail Park in Larne were another part of the Jermon family.

Both were sold to London-based fund Mansford in 2011.

The Strabane site was on sale at £3.8m, while Laharna was on the market for £6.15m.

Tom Keenan of Keenan Corporate Finance was appointed administrator to Jermon Limited by First Trust and other banks in January 2011.

An administrators' report two months later said it had assets of £91m but debts of £191m, meaning a net deficit of just over £100m.

#3341 Shotoflight

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 07:55 PM

In profile: the quiet pharmacist who built and lost an empire

http://www.belfastte...e-29070838.html

Peter Dolan became one of Northern Ireland's richest developers.............

Associates describe him as an unassuming person who has adjusted to a major change in lifestyle.

"He has come down from a significant height – but he is a risk taker and entrepreneur who will try and find work and get back."

With his 12 months of bankruptcy due to expire later this month, he is expected to be very much back in the saddle in the near future.

#3342 Shotoflight

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 04:18 PM

"working families" unable to sell or unwilling to sell? From HRS press release mentioned in the Daily Mirror - note use of UUJ average figure of £139k.

http://www.housingri...est-policy-news

LOCAL FAMILIES FACING REPOSSESSION NEED MORE SUPPORT

Following today’s publication of the latest Northern Ireland home repossession statistics, Housing Rights Service is reporting difficulties coping with the demand for housing debt advice. Northern Ireland Court figures show a 15% increase in the number of actions taken compared to the same time last year. The local charity provides the Mortgage Debt Advice Service on behalf of Government. It says that compared to last year, there has been a 35% increase in the numbers of struggling homeowners using their service.

Janet Hunter, Housing Rights Service Director, said “Mortgage repossession activity in Northern Ireland has reached a critical point. We are experiencing sustained demand for our Mortgage Debt Advice Service with around 150 new cases every month. We are struggling to cope with this and unfortunately we cannot see the situation improving for some considerable time.”

The situation is very different in neighbouring jurisdictions. In England and Wales, for example, mortgage repossession action has dropped to a five‐year low with house price recovery being reported in some areas. While In Northern Ireland the housing price slump has resulted in the region becoming the worst in the UK for negative equity.

Following sixteen years of consecutive growth, Northern Ireland house prices recorded annual rise of 47.5 per cent in February 2007 surpassing all other areas of the UK (12 per cent increase over the same period). In 2007 the average Northern Ireland house price peaked at £234,000; however by last year this had dropped to £139,000. As a consequence, large numbers of local working families who bought at the peak of the market are now mortgage prisoners; struggling to meet their mortgage commitment and unable to sell.

Over one third of mortgages taken out in Northern Ireland since 2005 are in negative equity
(the nearest regional equivalents in England are the North West and Yorkshire and Humberside at 15%). The closest comparator is the Republic of Ireland where house prices have dropped by 50 per cent since 2007. However, the Irish Banking Federation recently noted that level of repossession remains very low by international standards; standing at 20 per 100,000 Irish mortgages compared to 72 per 100,000 in the UK.

The charity is worried about the devastating affect repossessions and homelessness is having on families and communities. It believes the implications are wide‐reaching and have knock on affect for our economy. The forced sale of repossessed properties, it fears, has the potential to further depress house prices and hinder housing market recovery.

#3343 Belfast Boy

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 01:26 AM

http://www.housingri...est-policy-news

LOCAL FAMILIES FACING REPOSSESSION NEED MORE SUPPORT

The charity is worried about the devastating affect repossessions and homelessness is having on families and communities. It believes the implications are wide‐reaching and have knock on affect for our economy. The forced sale of repossessed properties, it fears, has the potential to further depress house prices and hinder housing market recovery.

Never mind the 'devastating affect' that over priced housing is having on families forced to rent. Because people are living in houses they cannot afford and never should have bought.

The housing market is recovering. An overpriced market recovers down to what people can genuinely afford.

Rant over :D

Edited by Belfast Boy, 17 February 2013 - 01:27 AM.

"There will never be another period, in our lifetime, when property changes hands for the multiples of salary that we reached recently. The one-off credit event that we have witnessed, over the last ten years, is gone and it is not coming back!" Dances with Sheeple

"The mistake I think lots of people are making, is that they are assuming the real estate market, in a few years time, will exist in the same economic conditons that exist today." VedantaTrader

#3344 Belfast Boy

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 01:41 AM

And this is with interest rates at rock bottom.



Cool isn't it :D

Certainly a lot more falls and pain to come.


Sadly, yes... for those people unfortunate enough to have bought into the Vested Interest bullsh1t.

For most people cheaper housing is a good thing and it is going to happen despite what spin the main-stream media put on the situation.
"There will never be another period, in our lifetime, when property changes hands for the multiples of salary that we reached recently. The one-off credit event that we have witnessed, over the last ten years, is gone and it is not coming back!" Dances with Sheeple

"The mistake I think lots of people are making, is that they are assuming the real estate market, in a few years time, will exist in the same economic conditons that exist today." VedantaTrader

#3345 Shotoflight

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:49 AM

UK

The interest-only mortgage time bomb that must be defused


http://www.independe...ed-8497734.html

Interest-only mortgages once proliferated. In 2006, the final full year before the onset of the world financial crisis, almost one in three mortgages was interest-only. This is now recognised as its high watermark, when a product that was meant to be at the periphery of the market, briefly and dangerously took centre stage.

At the height of the property price boom in most of the UK (inside the M25 excepted), interest-only was the means by which buyers maxed out to get the home of their dreams. As was shown later, many of the checks carried out on incomes were substandard as were property valuations. For a few crucial years, tens if not hundreds of thousands of homebuyers over-extended themselves with a product that was probably unsuitable. We are now seeing the fallout as the expected capital growth has not materialised, so many are left with the full value of their loan to repay.

Many didn't have an investment vehicle in place to cover the capital debt, or the one they had was not up to the job – such as a poorly performing endowment product. Research from xit2, the asset management data firm, has shown that of 1.3 million interest-only mortgages set to mature by 2020, about one million do not have a repayment plan in place.

The longer borrowers leave it, the more intractable the debt problem is likely to be. But, as Stuart Gregory, the managing director of Lentune mortgages consultancy, notes, most homeowners are sleepwalking into this crisis. "It is an issue many borrowers are unaware of – as many no longer take an active interest in the mortgage market since base rate fell to 0.5 per cent. Borrowers are unaware of the changes to the lending criteria on interest-only loans for example – which in some cases could restrict their ability to move home in the future."

Experts warn, too, that some interest-only mortgage holders are going to lose their homes. Last week, the Homeowners Alliance said its latest survey indicated as many as 300,000 people fear they could have to sell up after choosing an interest-only deal.




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