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#6781 Catflap

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 02:27 AM

I don't think that QE has had any effect on the stock markets. It has been all earnings driven , from what looked like the end of the financial world in march 2009 was proved not to be the case as companies tightened their belts and improved their margins and crucially paid down debt.

I'd much rather own a share in a company now than 3 years ago.


Plus the crash in oil/commodities that took prices back down to 2004 and 2005 levels which reduced costs/boosted profits.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWtCittJyr0

#6782 hotairmail

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 05:37 PM

What's with gold?



Edited by hotairmail, 03 February 2011 - 05:40 PM.



#6783 DarkHorseWaits-NoMore

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 06:34 PM

Looks like GOLD broke through a Parabolic SAR (SAR - stop and reverse) at ~$1343 or wedge breakout, signal to go long.
Jumped to $1355 5pm (UK). Any other ideas?
Or you meant the bigger picture with the recent pull back after a tripple top?

Don't know, I sure got the dollar direction wrong and no large stock sell off (thanks Catflap) :(... yet... as the FED continues to pump...

Image up to yesterday's data.

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Edited by DarkHorseWaits, 03 February 2011 - 07:21 PM.

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#6784 The Masked Tulip

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 09:58 PM

Don't know, I sure got the dollar direction wrong and no large stock sell off (thanks Catflap) :(... yet... as the FED continues to pump...




This is where paranoia sets in... if not already... you think that if you jump in now you are becoming just another person jumping in on the rising markets ready to be suckered... which may be true... but many people - myself included - have been thinking we are going to be suckered for one of the greatest 'bull' runs in history...

Have to admit that I am coming around more to the idea that QE3 is coming and the markets will continue to be pumped up... which makes me even more paranoid and wary of whether I am indulging in sucker group-think. I would be happier with a 10% correction... which I am less confident will come this year... even though I do believe that after any such correction the constant QE will drive up the DOW to 13000 and beyond.

TMT in confused mode.
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.

#6785 duckwomanloulou

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 10:05 PM

[quote name='hotairmail' timestamp='1296754639' post='2881336']
What's with gold?

This blog is worth a visit on the PM markets & today's event is bought to you by Blythe Masters & JPMorgue pausing in their paper assault of the market now US jobs numbers are out.


"I think we're finally ready to begin moving higher, once we survive today. Remember, the Thursday before the monthly BLS BS report is almost always an Evil Empire raid day. Why, you ask? Its quite simple. The banks know, just like you and I, that the employment number will disappoint. It always does. A disappointing number will cause the PMs to rise so care must be taken to hammer down price today.
For example, look right to see how quickly the sharp rally this morning was beaten back. Expect this type of action all day. Any rally will be met with a commensurate amount of fresh paper from Blythe and The Monkeys. Only a complete breakdown in the Middle East would cause Blythe to pull her offers at this point."


http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/

IMO Worth a bookmark & daily visit if you're a gold bull


Edited by duckwomanloulou, 03 February 2011 - 10:07 PM.

Offered in the spirit of Parkinson's laws: The more amiability and espirit de corps amongst members of a policy-making in-group, the greater the danger that independent critical thinking will be replaced by groupthink, which is likely to result in irrational and dehumanizing actions directed towards out-groups (I. Janis, 1972)

#6786 R K

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 10:24 PM

What's with gold?


and lo, it was written........

Good find.

What have I been saying about bonds? ;)

I'm also wondering about short SPX:GOLD i.e. short SPX and long GLD. Check out the chart........




"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#6787 R K

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 10:51 PM

Bill Gross excoriates his fellow financial practitioners. Quite some polemic!

(It's difficult to refrain from posting the entire article, it's so good. Just read it all)



Having been part of this process and even a member of the rogue's gallery itself, I know one thing for sure: This is not God's work – it has the unmistakable odor of Mammon. PIMCO, while Mammonesque, is a company to be proud of. I can say with confidence that there are very few clients who have not benefited from our investment management over the years. Some of the rest of this industry, however, I'm not so sure of: rating agencies that perpetually fail at commonsensical quality judgments, bankers that make loans to subterranean credits and then extend the beggar's bowl for themselves, and 80% of active money managers that underperform the market. As a profession we have failed miserably at our primary function – the efficient and productive allocation of capital: The S&L debacle of the early 1980s, the Asian crisis, LTCM, dotcoms, subprimes, Lehman and the resurrection, instead of the reformation, of Wall Street, are major sins of the modern era of money. Hang your heads, moneychangers. And no, it is not yet time to move on, as many banking CEOs suggest. How can bond traders make ten, one hundred, one thousand times more money than an engineer or social worker given their dismal historical performance? Why is it that some of today's doctors are using food stamps while investment banking executives complain about millions of dollars in compensation that might be deferred in case of a future bailout?

Financiers have lost their high ground and, if truth be told, we began to lose it a long time ago when we figured out that money was more than a medium of exchange or a poor substitute for a store of value. We figured out a turbocharged way to make money with money and proclaimed ourselves geniuses in the process. Well, we're not. We may be categorized as "opportunists," to be generous, but society's "paragons" and a legitimate destination for a significant percentage of college graduates? Hardly. To paraphrase Paul Volcker, the only productive invention to come out of the banking industry over the past generation was the ATM.




http://www.pimco.com...ls-Bargain.aspx


This metaphorical devil’s bargain has its equivalent in the credit markets these days. Central bankers have lowered the cost of money for 30 years now, legitimately following global disinflationary forces downward, but also validating increased leverage via lower real interest rates. Today’s rock-bottom yields, however, have less to do with disinflation and more to do with providing fuel for an asset-based economy that promotes unsustainable wealth creation and a false confidence in perpetual capital gains. Real 10-year interest rates fell from over 5% in the early 1980s to just under 1% in recent months and have arguably been responsible for 3,000–4,000 Dow points and 2–3% annual appreciation in bonds over those three decades.



And no, it is not yet time to move on, as many banking CEOs suggest


Are you listening 'Dave'?

If not, you ought to be.

Edited by Red Karma, 03 February 2011 - 11:05 PM.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#6788 hotairmail

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 08:14 AM

http://blogs.ft.com/...entral-bankers/


A good summary of the commodity price-inflation-rate setting dilemma from an orthodox perspective.


Comes from the angle of increased demand for commodities though - rather than liquidity and yield/capital gain hunting.

Edited by hotairmail, 04 February 2011 - 08:15 AM.



#6789 hotairmail

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 08:21 AM

Mhttp://slopeofhope.com/2011/02/is-there-a-person-in-your-life-who-always-has-a-hug-and-makes-you-feel-better-when-theyre-around-who-is-it-and-what-do.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Ftradeblogs%2Fthe_slope_of_hope_with_ti+%28Slope+of+Hope+with+Tim+Knight%29




Interesting. Not sure how right these guys have been for the entire bull though. I think they've been fighting it.


Anyway - he's stolen my new saying as his sign off.....'We'll see.' And I was going to patent it.



#6790 R K

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 04:00 PM

Richard Russell bullish on stocks via DIA ETF

http://tradersnarrat...all-over-again/

Copper ETFs

http://tradersnarrat...s-are-quacking/


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#6791 R K

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 04:58 PM

Not sure if anyone posted Jeremy Grantham's latest newsletter. I don't recall seeing it.

http://tradersnarrat...-pavlovs-bulls/

  • Be prepared for a strong market and continued outperformance of everything risky.
  • But be aware that you are living on borrowed time as a bull; on our data, the market is worth about 910 on the S&P 500, substantially less than current levels, and most risky components are even more overpriced.
  • The speed with which you should pull back from the market as it advances into dangerously overpriced territory this year is more of an art than a science, but by October 1 you should probably be thinking much more conservatively.
  • As before, in our opinion, U.S. quality stocks are the least overpriced equities.
  • To make money in emerging markets from this point, animal sprits have to stay strong and not much can go wrong. This is possibly the last chapter in a 12-year love affair. Emerging equities seem to be in the early stages of the “Emerging, Emerging Bubble” that, 3½ years ago, I suggested would occur. How far a bubble expands is always anyone’s guess, but from now on, we must be more careful.
  • For those of us in Asset Allocation, currencies are presently too iffy to choose between. Occasionally, in our opinion, one or more get far out of line. This is not one of those occasions.
  • Resource stocks, as in “stuff in the ground,” are likely to be fie investments for the very long term. But short term, they can really ruin a quarter, and they have certainly moved a lot recently.
  • We think forestry is still a good, safe, long-term play. Good agricultural land is as well.
  • What to watch out for: commodity price rises in the next few months could be so large that governmental policies in emerging countries might just stop the global equity bull market. My guess, though, is that this is not the case in the U.S. just yet.


http://www.scribd.co...r-Pavlovs-Bulls


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#6792 The Masked Tulip

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 05:30 PM

Wow!

25% over-priced S&P yet thinking that this bull could continue through till October... That's one heck of a bull to get on the back of.

I note what is said about quality stocks but in any correction/crash the quality stocks will suffer as well - especially if we see a 20% range crash.
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.

#6793 R K

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 05:41 PM

Wow!

25% over-priced S&P yet thinking that this bull could continue through till October... That's one heck of a bull to get on the back of.

I note what is said about quality stocks but in any correction/crash the quality stocks will suffer as well - especially if we see a 20% range crash.


Yes, I've not read the full letter yet so not quite sure of the context.

Meanwhile we look to have a breakout on 10yr treasury yields (i.e. price has broken down) today. It's well outside the 20 day bolly band. That may just trigger the start of a reversal. Of course, it may also signal further equity gains instead.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99942472259

Posted Image


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#6794 R K

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 05:49 PM

More on the 'temporary' (Ben) V 'structural' (goldman) debate on commodity inflation

http://ftalphaville....ties-inflation/


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#6795 The Masked Tulip

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Posted 04 February 2011 - 10:30 PM

S&P to rise 35% in 2011?

http://www.zerohedge...-8-unemployment
The success or failure of your deeds does not add up to the sum of your life. Your spirit cannot be weighed. Judge yourself by the intention of your actions and by the strength you faced the challenges that have stood in your way.

The people closest to you have been trying to tell you that you have made a difference. That you did change things for the better. The Universe is vast and we are so small. There is really only one thing that we can ever truly control - whether we are good or evil.


The political triumph of the American Right has been to advance relentlessly the economic interests of the country's richest people, while emphasising a swath of moral, social and foreign policy issues that motivate and certainly distract middle-class and poor voters.




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