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#1 Killer Bunny

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Posted 31 January 2009 - 08:44 PM

Particularly SPY etf, if it falls on over 420m volume then the ABC down is likely to have started and this could take us well below the Nov 20th numbers.

Currently heading for 804 S&P. If it breaks 810 and close below. Then sell.

Dow in agreement.

NASD not agreeing.

Gold - if it goes above 930 and closes above 920 on Friday, next stop 1000 and then just add zeros.

Probably this will be decided Monday.

I'm not getting into any discussion about this however much you bully, insult, lie about me.

In 1931 they did not know yet that they were in The Great Depression
Cap'n, you cannae change the laws of... Economics!
"If they raise rates we're toast. If they don't its BECAUSE we're toast" Pundit: Sky News March 2011
"That which is unsustainable will not sustain" Milton Friedman


#2 okaycuckoo

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Posted 31 January 2009 - 09:37 PM

In the space of one day Denninger has gone from expecting a rally to a crash.

Tim Knight is cautious - doesn't want to short the 500 etf, prefers individual stocks at the moment.

January trading has been ... uuuuh ... difficult!

edit: links

Edited by okaycuckoo, 31 January 2009 - 09:40 PM.


#3 Frank Hovis

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Posted 31 January 2009 - 09:42 PM

I am intending to buy gold and platinum next week. And if I'm doing it many others will be considering it.

Don't let the bastards grind you down FP, your contribution is much appreciated.
High house prices - wrecking economies worldwide since 2003

#4 STRLondon

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Posted 01 February 2009 - 12:15 AM

Sold all stocks on friday which i hadnt made a loss on. Couldnt stomach the loss on the others in the hope that I might be wrong about a tremedous crash.

Also expecting a big sell off and new low 7000's on the dow in February.

#5 Starcrossed

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Posted 01 February 2009 - 01:53 PM

Good to see you still popping in FP.
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#6 Killer Bunny

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 01:54 PM

Armstrong Davis article on The Market Oracle Mon 2 Feb

In 1931 they did not know yet that they were in The Great Depression
Cap'n, you cannae change the laws of... Economics!
"If they raise rates we're toast. If they don't its BECAUSE we're toast" Pundit: Sky News March 2011
"That which is unsustainable will not sustain" Milton Friedman


#7 Housing Bear

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 04:08 PM

Armstrong Davis article on The Market Oracle Mon 2 Feb


Very good to see you back FP. Miss you!
This is the worst world wide financial melt down in our lifetime, and shows every sign of getting much worse. It will affect everyone on the planet, if it has not done so already.

Here is my guess for the next three years:

1. Expect bankrupties of major corporations worldwide to increase, and massive "Quantitative Easing" by goverments worldwide.
2. Deflation is a smokescreen for the greatest inflation in the history of the world, starting very soon! Inflation is already evident in food at your local supermarket.
3. It will not be 150 billion, but 300 billion by the time they realise that the first 150 billion did not work.
4. We have to contend with the fractional reserve system, which means that the banks will lend out not 300 billion, but anything between 1.5 and 3 trillion.
5. By 2010-2011 we will have started on the slippery slope of inflation, and no politician will be able to stop it.
6. In addition, Sterling will probably crash in slow motion- why would any foreign bank or Forex dealer want to hold a currency (the GBP) which pays no interest to speak of, whilst the UK government are inflating the money supply? This will compound the inflation problem.
7. The solution: Buy the unmentionable yellow stuff that most central banks store in their vaults, to preserve their own currency. The banks cannot print more of the yellow metal! This is not to make a speculative killing, but to preserve what you already have.

Please do not take any of the above as financial advice as I am not qualified or authorised to provide financial advice, and am a relative amateur in investment markets. The above reflects my own opinion, and that is all!

My very best wishes to you all.

#8 R K

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 04:36 PM

Just a comment on your chart analysis. The gold stocks/gold oversold ratio could equally be resolved with a gold sell off. I realise that's not your position but it is nevertheless the case, particularly if stocks overall fail at these support levels. I'm watching the HUI and it is still struggling with this 302 resistance area. 3rd or 4th (depending on how you read it) attempt. If it holds above that and it turns into support then I think your call is probably correct. I have to admit I'm less certain, for now at least.

Overall though I think everyone recognises we're at some major suppor/resistance levels again in just about everything.

Edit P.S. Thanks for posting FP. Always interested. Good to see your work up on market oracle as well. I always enjoy Nadeem's analysis.

Edited by Red Kharma, 02 February 2009 - 04:39 PM.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
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Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#9 _w_

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 05:33 PM

Don't let the bastards grind you down FP, your contribution is much appreciated.


+1




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–Frederic Bastiat



#10 hotairmail

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 05:34 PM

Particularly SPY etf, if it falls on over 420m volume then the ABC down is likely to have started and this could take us well below the Nov 20th numbers.

Currently heading for 804 S&P. If it breaks 810 and close below. Then sell.

Dow in agreement.

NASD not agreeing.

Gold - if it goes above 930 and closes above 920 on Friday, next stop 1000 and then just add zeros.

Probably this will be decided Monday.

I'm not getting into any discussion about this however much you bully, insult, lie about me.


I'm watching the S&P like a hawk today. If the supports stay in place at the close what would you recommend?

EDIT: As chance would have it, the S&P has just this second turned positive. :mellow:

Edited by hotairmail, 02 February 2009 - 05:48 PM.

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#11 tippingpoint

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 05:42 PM

Particularly SPY etf, if it falls on over 420m volume then the ABC down is likely to have started and this could take us well below the Nov 20th numbers.

Currently heading for 804 S&P. If it breaks 810 and close below. Then sell.

Dow in agreement.

NASD not agreeing.

Gold - if it goes above 930 and closes above 920 on Friday, next stop 1000 and then just add zeros.

Probably this will be decided Monday.

I'm not getting into any discussion about this however much you bully, insult, lie about me.



SP Volume currently £123m and at 824.

Gold fussing around at 915ish.

Not looking that good perhaps.

#12 tippingpoint

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 05:44 PM

I'm watching the S&P like a hawk today. If the supports stay in place at the close what would you recommend?



I am shorting SP, Gold and Silver for the short term, and have also been shorting oil for a week for what it's worth.

#13 ParticleMan

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 05:46 PM

FP - good piece for the Oracle (specifically, the insight into risk-weighting); I'd like to see more of that in your posts here, for whatever that's worth.

Here's more fuel for the fire...

http://www.investors...a...w=600&h=400

#14 ParticleMan

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 06:01 PM

... actually while we're doing technicals, anyone got a view on the VIX chart?

#15 R K

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Posted 02 February 2009 - 06:31 PM

... actually while we're doing technicals, anyone got a view on the VIX chart?


I see resistance at 50 and 55 and support at 38/40

Right now? Stuck in the middle with you.

Edit: Roughly - before someone splits hairs.

Edited by Red Kharma, 02 February 2009 - 06:34 PM.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13





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