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#11641 okaycuckoo

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 05:05 PM

Kaminska on copper hoarding in China:

http://ftalphaville....live-in-copper/

#11642 hotairmail

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 05:16 PM

Right - off for a skinful.



"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."


#11643 hotairmail

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 01:50 PM

:D





Anyway...'trouble in stocks':


http://theshortsideo...ommodities.html

"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."


#11644 Crash Buyer

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 08:07 PM

Interim low now in? Or early August '11 fake out?

Eussro banks appear to have found support too.

Another month end quandry..........

Isn't it just. FWIW I favour a rally further well into the 1400s before we get another correction:

- I agree with Tiho (as posted earlier by HAM) that long USD is a crowded trade
- IMO the recent "shale oil = strong dollar" story is designed to get this trade even more crowded before it breaks, fuelling risk-on trades
- We had the "sell in May" equity trade in 2010 and 2011 - on the surface it is appearing now too, which is a perfect opportunity to burn shorters

So I think we'll run up higher. A QE3 rally would help Obama; to get QE3 by autumn would mean equity weakness during the summer, so let's say a June correction would be just perfect.

Or we could get a little pre-election panic-inspired banking blackmail like 2008. :ph34r:

EDIT: I remembered that Adam Hamilton wrote on this in Feb (this may be a re-post):

http://zealllc.com/2012/spx2012.htm

So what is likely to happen? A couple weeks ago I wrote an essay on the state of the SPX’s current cyclical bull market and the latest upleg within it. For a variety of technical reasons on several time scales, today’s rally is likely to persist until late spring at least. Summer is even a possibility, depending on how high the SPX gets relative to its secular-bear resistance of 1500 before that. Soon after 1500, we are due for either a major correction or possibly a new cyclical bear market.

If this upleg crests too early, so the correction is over by late summer and the SPX can rally into autumn, the Democrats have a better chance of winning. But if this upleg crests later, or the SPX lingers near highs during the summer before correcting like it did last year, the subsequent selloff (correction or new bear) should hit in autumn. And that would give the Republicans a much better chance of winning.

In pure market terms, politics aside, this second scenario looks more likely based on my research. The flagship S&P 500 only has to rally another 10% or so from here to hit its decade-old secular-bear resistance of 1500. And that would make for an easy and gradual ascent into late spring, no sharp surges sparking upleg-killing excessive greed, before the stock markets’ usual May seasonal peak.


Well 2 months later we were only 10-20 pts higher on SPX so it looks like the second scenario is working out.

Edited by Crash Buyer, 29 April 2012 - 08:22 PM.


#11645 R K

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 02:00 PM

Odds shorten on Mancunian to replace Merv............

http://ftalphaville....e-governor-job/


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#11646 hotairmail

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 02:55 PM

Odds shorten on Mancunian to replace Merv............

http://ftalphaville....e-governor-job/


As one of the great Glowballists, I wouldn't expect any special favours from him.


Anyway, some sage advice from a forthright Yorkshireman:


http://video.ft.com/v/1589389910001/3M-s-George-Buckley-on-boosting-growth



EDIT: I don't entirely agree with him however. There are areas where we lack ambition and take an extremely small share of the value chain for superior knowledge and skills. A great example would be ARM. If ARM was run by Jobs, he would have been looking to see how he could cut out other people and use his technology to take the lion's share. Would you rather be ARM or Apple? It is just that they are happy with their blue sky research and working environment, decent wages...but they don't have the drive to take over the world. Nor do they have the social cohesiveness at their core where the middle classes provide work for those lower down the food chain - happier to keep their hands clean and see it done elsewhere.

Edited by hotairmail, 30 April 2012 - 03:03 PM.

"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."


#11647 Georgia O'Keeffe

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:00 PM

As one of the great Glowballists, I wouldn't expect any special favours from him.


Anyway, some sage advice from a forthright Yorkshireman:


http://video.ft.com/v/1589389910001/3M-s-George-Buckley-on-boosting-growth



EDIT: I don't entirely agree with him however. There are areas where we lack ambition and take an extremely small share of the value chain for superior knowledge and skills. A great example would be ARM. If ARM was run by Jobs, he would have been looking to see how he could cut out other people and use his technology to take the lion's share. Would you rather be ARM or Apple? It is just that they are happy with their blue sky research and working environment, decent wages...but they don't have the drive to take over the world. Nor do they have the social cohesiveness at their core where the middle classes provide work for those lower down the food chain - happier to keep their hands clean and see it done elsewhere.

i like ARM, if for arguments sake those were the differing philosophies at work id much rather ARMs philosophy but that might be my natural sloth shining through

Edited by Georgia O'Keeffe, 30 April 2012 - 04:00 PM.


#11648 scepticus

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:18 PM

EDIT: I don't entirely agree with him however. There are areas where we lack ambition and take an extremely small share of the value chain for superior knowledge and skills. A great example would be ARM. If ARM was run by Jobs, he would have been looking to see how he could cut out other people and use his technology to take the lion's share. Would you rather be ARM or Apple? It is just that they are happy with their blue sky research and working environment, decent wages...but they don't have the drive to take over the world. Nor do they have the social cohesiveness at their core where the middle classes provide work for those lower down the food chain - happier to keep their hands clean and see it done elsewhere.


The difference between ARM and apple is IMO not one of philosophy, they simply operate at different levels of the market. Apple sells finished products to end consumer (an OEM) and ARM sells semiconductor intellectual property to chipmakers who make the chips that go in Apple products.

FYI, ARM is dominating the world. ARM cores are in every mobile phone, vast quanities of embedded systems and now compete with Intel in servers. While Samsung looks set to begin dominating Apple, ARM has its cores in both Apple and Samsung phones.

To totally 'take over thw world' ARM would need to make their own chips, but if they did that then the buyers could only get ARM powered chips froma single source and would therefore immediately seek alternatives.

#11649 Democorruptcy

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 05:11 PM

Hugh Hendry:

http://www.scribd.co...screen/91764042

Democorruptcy
If you say "Democorruptcy" quickly, it sounds a bit like "Democracy". In a "Democracy" people vote for politicians who represent their interests. In the UK's "Democorruptcy" people can only vote for expense fiddling thieving MPs who are in the hip pocket of big business and the finance sector.

Governbankment
A "Governbankment" is a Government that has no line between itself and banks. It diverts public money (our taxes) to private companies (banks). George Osborne's Help to Buy Bail Banks, will see our taxes go to bankers to cover their losses on mortgages that default. The UK's Governbankment will even pay bankers "reasonable repossession fees" on Help to Bail Bank mortgages that default.

The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is stealing from savers to make them pay for crimes by bankers. Via lower interest on savings, all the bank fines for PPI, LIBOR, interest rates swaps, etc. are being paid by savers so that bankers can keep pocketing bonuses. 

"We need to make a really big change: from an economy built on debt to an economy built on savings" - David Camoron Jan 2009
"Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed" - George Osborne Jan 2009
- So what do Camoron & Osborne do? Print money and leave interest rates at 0.5% when inflation is over 5%

If it is asserted that civilization is a real advance in the condition of man -- and I think that it is, though only the wise improve their advantages -- it must be shown that it has produced better dwellings without making them more costly; and the cost of a thing is the amount of what I will call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
http://classiclit.ab...en-Part-2_4.htm

I want to tell you my secret now.... I see debt people


#11650 scepticus

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 07:04 PM

Hugh Hendry:

http://www.scribd.co...screen/91764042


Thanks for posting the latest braindump, which IMO is consideraby better than his last one and worth reading in full.

What a character he is!

#11651 R K

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 12:25 PM

Does Gross have a 'tell'?

The quality, higher yielding (largely non-US) equities/bonds seem destined to become the next 'big thing'.

I guess he's already placed his bets..........

http://www.pimco.com...ever-Comes.aspx


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#11652 R K

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 01:33 PM

Markit and HSBC PMIs over next 24 hours.

http://www.businessi...-preview-2012-5


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#11653 R K

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 02:40 PM

Bond Vigilantes@bondvigilantes New post: RBA slashes interest rates - the lucky country is getting nailed http://******/u5pVDx


Between Ayres rock and a hard place





"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE £100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#11654 hotairmail

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 03:24 PM

Seems to be one of those first of the month days.



"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."


#11655 hotairmail

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 03:53 PM

Was that the back test?



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"The chicken is radiating disorder out into the wider universe."





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