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#11446 hotairmail

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 11:58 AM

Corridors and Floors in Monetary Policy
http://libertystreet...ary-policy.html



Thanks for that. I found that very educational. Very simply explained. Logical when you think about it. Now, where is the 'staircase'?



#11447 hotairmail

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 01:15 PM

claims stuff...


http://www.calculate...alculated Risk)



(slowly improving, don't look too closely)



#11448 hotairmail

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 01:30 PM

TMM - good commentary


http://macro-man.blo...Man (Macro Man)



#11449 hotairmail

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 03:19 PM

old but interesting....


http://soberlook.com...rket-moves.html



(I've come to the conclusion that the less you know, the better)



#11450 hotairmail

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 10:27 PM





EDIT: if you listen carefully, it seems she is harmonising with her own voice.

Edited by hotairmail, 06 April 2012 - 07:12 AM.



#11451 hotairmail

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 08:18 AM

monetary aggregates - greece


http://soberlook.com...ce-ecb-has.html



#11452 hotairmail

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 04:40 PM

non farms well below...


...when my money dies ( I should write a book)


http://feedproxy.goo...discussion.html

Edited by hotairmail, 06 April 2012 - 04:40 PM.



#11453 hotairmail

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 05:03 PM

Interesting things going on in China.

http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz1q52wAs00



China cracks down on Maoist websites


Apparently whipping up support for Bo Xilai - the guy who was arrested. His son went to Harrow (recommended by the English Old Harrovian who died in mysterious circumstances after falling out with his wife over a business deal). Strange behaviour for a 'Maoist' you might ask to go to Harrow. Apparently Bo Xilai was 'intrigued' by the class system in the UK and how the upper classes have managed to keep a hold of power for so long...probably to try and create his own dynasty methinks. Some think he was using Maoist denunciations to get rid of people and seize businesses in Guangdong Chongqing province. Things came to a head when his number 2 went to the US embassy to claim asylum after fearing for his life - Wen Jia Bao did not hesitate and denounced his Maoist rhetoric and he was arrested. Seems they're trying to stop some 'nasties' from taking power. All very unstable behind the scenes.

Edited by hotairmail, 07 April 2012 - 12:01 AM.



#11454 Crash Buyer

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Posted 06 April 2012 - 07:27 PM

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index seems about to decline into negative territory. Presumably the NFP data will be enough. Doesn't bode well for equities.

http://www.bloomberg...SIUSD:IND/chart

Note of caution - this article notes the poor predictive power of the index (against SPX) before the 2008 crash.

http://articles.busi...usiness-insider

#11455 FaFa!

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 05:58 AM

Interesting things going on in China.

http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz1q52wAs00

I am on the smartphone so will keep this short. Basically the CCP is naturally riven by cliques but occasionally it comes into the open (ie Tiananmen and now the Bo thing). After Tiananmen the Shanghai clique led by Jiang Zemin took control, but Hu and Wen (Wen is the protege of Zhao Ziyang who got ousted for saying the students might have had a point, his book is worth a read) have had the last 8 years in power. However they have needed to operate by getting consensus across the party, the Mao and Deng godlike powers are over. Getting rid of Bo has apparently taking a year of getting the necessary support before moving against him.

This is part of the reason why I am bearish on China. The CCP, contrary to mainstream opinion, is not like the Borg and you don't need much exposure to China to know this. I believe if things get bad, fault lines could appear rapidly (like Tiananmen) and the party paralyzed by indecision.
Check me out on Youtube -
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#11456 hotairmail

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 09:13 AM

The Revenge of Wen Jiabao
http://www.foreignpo...e_of_wen_jiabao
(author is an aussie journalist who's talked/written quite a bit about china, mafia, corruption. Is interesting I think, with some balance of critique in the comments and in common sense reality that can have opinions but know sweet fa about it really).

and while sort of on the subject: Honor Thy Creditors Beforan Thy Shareholders: Are the Profits of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Real?
http://www.hkimr.org...ge_id=10&id=210


Thanks for those.

And FaFa for your insights. Tell us more when you have the time.



#11457 hotairmail

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Posted 07 April 2012 - 09:08 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpD0GGJ9D5E



http://en.wikipedia....ki/Cyril_Tawney

Edited by hotairmail, 08 April 2012 - 10:15 AM.



#11458 R K

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Posted 08 April 2012 - 07:27 PM

An interesting speech by Ben Broadbent (15/3/12) (which I appear to have missed at the time) questioning some commonly held views on 'deleveraging' especially relating to UK housing market, MEW, and 'normalisation' of rates.

http://www.bankofeng...2/speech553.pdf

Essentially arguing (evidentially) that it was not easy credit but rather the longer term falls in real rates pushing down on rental yields which caused the rise in house prices. An interesting chart on MEW as 'transfers' as opposed to 'consumption' and on the causal effect of rising house prices driving increased mortgage debts rather than vice-versa.


What must be true is that larger aggregate balance sheets are more exposed to interest-rate risk. If the property-related explanation for the expansion in household balance sheets is correct, then one important corollary is that the debt and the financial assets are held by different people the debt by the young (roughly speaking), the assets by the old. In time, this intergenerational transfer may get unwound, via bequests. But it may not (the old could yet consume their capital gain) and, in any case, the gross debt has to be serviced in the meantime4. Much of the expansion in balance sheets (I have argued) was due a secular decline in the long-run, risk-free rate of interest, and they are now more vulnerable to a reversal of that trend. I will discuss the risks and implications of a rise in long-term interest rates later on


This won't be a 'popular' view with many on here but nontheless makes sense. In some ways it accords with what I understand to be Scepticus' argument.

Perhaps the 'imbalances' resulting between young and old will not be significantly rebalanced until the old 'die off' or are in some other way fiscally 'nudged' into deleveraging their b/sheets.


"The problem with capitalism is that eventually you end up with everyone else's money" RK
"We have now entered The Great Rebalancing 2007-20xx" - RK
"Gold will go to $1000, Silver to $18" - RK August 2011
QE 100bn and build 1m council homes - RK
Carney announces the launch of Empire 2.0 - Rise of the Banksters Oct '13


#11459 hotairmail

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Posted 08 April 2012 - 07:56 PM

Employment stats 'not as bad as thought'.....


http://econompicdata...as-i-first.html



#11460 scepticus

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Posted 08 April 2012 - 08:01 PM

This won't be a 'popular' view with many on here but nontheless makes sense. In some ways it accords with what I understand to be Scepticus' argument.


Yes it does.

However I don't think broadbent actually made any suggestion what might have caused the secular decline in risk-free rates apart from pointing out they were much higher than normal in the 1980s/1990s.




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