Swansea-State Of The Market

[The Masked Tulip]

Thanks, you are very right about houses in the middle of nowhere costing a fortune which does not make sense to me....there are no parks nearby, you have to drive a considerable distance to get to a shop or other services (And now i have to factor cost of fuel into things since i have to drive into town to work everyday and cost of fuel is just too high). I think i will bid my time and keep watching for when something comes to the market that is reasonably priced. Just another point when i check the price owners bought their houses for..i tend to feel a lot are just being plain greedy!

I think most of Wales is just being greedy.

People are trying to exit the Gower because the cost of fuel is now seen as prohibitive. Even suburbs of Swansea like Three Crosses, Bishoptson and Pennard are seeing people not wanting to be that far out.

I think there will have to be a massive drop in all these 'remote' houses due the reality that the numbers of people who wish to buy them, or can afford to buy, no longer exists.

West Wales is seeing the clasiv after-effects of a housing bubble - the money that came in to drive up prices now wishes to bail, but few locals can afford those prices.

Look at all those villages within 10 minutes of Cross Hands - some truly stunning houses newly built in the, but at South East of England prices. Nuts.

[thirdwave]

I think most of Wales is just being greedy.

People are trying to exit the Gower because the cost of fuel is now seen as prohibitive. Even suburbs of Swansea like Three Crosses, Bishoptson and Pennard are seeing people not wanting to be that far out.

I think there will have to be a massive drop in all these 'remote' houses due the reality that the numbers of people who wish to buy them, or can afford to buy, no longer exists.

West Wales is seeing the clasiv after-effects of a housing bubble - the money that came in to drive up prices now wishes to bail, but few locals can afford those prices.

Look at all those villages within 10 minutes of Cross Hands - some truly stunning houses newly built in the, but at South East of England prices. Nuts.

Three Crosses I agree is too far out (and a dump, TBH) but what about Bishopston?Is it the sort of place where people aspire to live in? Haven`t been there myself but asking prices have been sliding ever so gradually in Bishopston and surrounding areas in recent weeks. Could it be the sign of things to come in Swansea proper? What I struggle to fathom is why the same agents who appear to be persuading vendors to drop prices in Bishopston/Gower are failing to do so in other parts of Swansea...

A grand total of 8 houses sold in the entire SA3 postcode during May..I wonder what the June figures are going to look like-judging by the number of houses down as SSTC /under offer on RM, it was potentially one of the worst months for the market since the start of the crash. It can`t be long before some of the big EAs start going under, unless the market picks up dramatically this month....

[The Masked Tulip]

Three Crosses I agree is too far out (and a dump, TBH) but what about Bishopston?Is it the sort of place where people aspire to live in? Haven`t been there myself but asking prices have been sliding ever so gradually in Bishopston and surrounding areas in recent weeks. Could it be the sign of things to come in Swansea proper? What I struggle to fathom is why the same agents who appear to be persuading vendors to drop prices in Bishopston/Gower are failing to do so in other parts of Swansea...

A grand total of 8 houses sold in the entire SA3 postcode during May..I wonder what the June figures are going to look like-judging by the number of houses down as SSTC /under offer on RM, it was potentially one of the worst months for the market since the start of the crash. It can`t be long before some of the big EAs start going under, unless the market picks up dramatically this month....

I had one of the 'big' EAs telephone me this week - first time they have contacted me in 5 years of being on their books. They sounded desperate and were eager to try and get me to put in offers.

Bishopston has always been marketed as being in the cachment area for the school but it is just too far out - nothing to do there. Two pubs, no restuarants or curry houses to speak of. Anything you wish to do involves a car journey.

Yes, Bishopston has began to come down but I it is a slow process. Like most places, the asking prices have been so high that the ones that are dropping, IMPO, have some way even to get to where they should be asking price wise.

[justzee]

Three Crosses I agree is too far out (and a dump, TBH) but what about Bishopston?Is it the sort of place where people aspire to live in? Haven`t been there myself but asking prices have been sliding ever so gradually in Bishopston and surrounding areas in recent weeks. Could it be the sign of things to come in Swansea proper? What I struggle to fathom is why the same agents who appear to be persuading vendors to drop prices in Bishopston/Gower are failing to do so in other parts of Swansea...

A grand total of 8 houses sold in the entire SA3 postcode during May..I wonder what the June figures are going to look like-judging by the number of houses down as SSTC /under offer on RM, it was potentially one of the worst months for the market since the start of the crash. It can`t be long before some of the big EAs start going under, unless the market picks up dramatically this month....

Hello i have never really looked at properties in Bishopston but since i have heard a few mention that place over here i decided to have a look on right move, i saw this,so i did a quick research and found that it was last bought for £150000 in 1996 see zoopla, my question is what price would you realistically buy this property for? I don’t begrudge sellers making money (that’s why we all take up employment and some have chosen property as their means in making a good income). What do you make of the zoopla’s estimate in this particular instance?

Google street view

[The Masked Tulip]

Hello i have never really looked at properties in Bishopston but since i have heard a few mention that place over here i decided to have a look on right move, i saw this,so i did a quick research and found that it was last bought for £150000 in 1996 see zoopla, my question is what price would you realistically buy this property for? I don’t begrudge sellers making money (that’s why we all take up employment and some have chosen property as their means in making a good income). What do you make of the zoopla’s estimate in this particular instance?

Google street view

The Gower is full of such priced houses - so many it is now ridiculous.

[thirdwave]

Hello i have never really looked at properties in Bishopston but since i have heard a few mention that place over here i decided to have a look on right move, i saw this,so i did a quick research and found that it was last bought for £150000 in 1996 see zoopla, my question is what price would you realistically buy this property for? I don’t begrudge sellers making money (that’s why we all take up employment and some have chosen property as their means in making a good income). What do you make of the zoopla’s estimate in this particular instance?

Google street view

It was originally on for 750k! As pointed out by TMT previously, there is no local demand for these Gower monstrosities and rampant HPI in that part of the world over the past decade has meant its no longer possible to work out 'fair value' for such properties. It is likely to remain unsold and eventually withdrawn from the market/repossessed for the same reason..

I am starting to see asking prices for the odd property in the Gower reduced to 2005 levels or even lower-however, they are likely to have been overpriced in 2005 anyway so a long way to go yet I would have thought.In any case, I am in no great rush to make near asking offers being demanded by most vendors in Swansea currently and will start looking at the right earnest in a couple of months once reality would have hopefully sunk in..TMT viewing today certainly provides some scope for optimism as sellers appear to be struggling even in the so called 'affluent' bits of Swansea. In contrast to the SE, I don`t think there is a huge rental market, apart from the HMO kind, in Swansea so fingers crossed EAs will start panicking fairly quickly once sales dry up completely..

[The Masked Tulip]

We are going to have to watch Summer come and go... and some job cuts... Anyhow, it is a moot point with myself now... there is no work for what I do in Swansea... I work on state of the art IT systems and most of the stuff in Swansea is out of date public sector stuff..

I am going to have to make that BIG move I think... just working out where to go now...

[justzee]

It was originally on for 750k! As pointed out by TMT previously, there is no local demand for these Gower monstrosities and rampant HPI in that part of the world over the past decade has meant its no longer possible to work out 'fair value' for such properties. It is likely to remain unsold and eventually withdrawn from the market/repossessed for the same reason..

I am starting to see asking prices for the odd property in the Gower reduced to 2005 levels or even lower-however, they are likely to have been overpriced in 2005 anyway so a long way to go yet I would have thought.In any case, I am in no great rush to make near asking offers being demanded by most vendors in Swansea currently and will start looking at the right earnest in a couple of months once reality would have hopefully sunk in..TMT viewing today certainly provides some scope for optimism as sellers appear to be struggling even in the so called 'affluent' bits of Swansea. In contrast to the SE, I don`t think there is a huge rental market, apart from the HMO kind, in Swansea so fingers crossed EAs will start panicking fairly quickly once sales dry up completely..

I am also of the opinion that very soon in Swansea in particular prices of the type of property i am interested in will start to come down because 1. They can’t be rented out, 2. Transportation is going to impact adversely in the decision making process, 3. I don’t see a sudden influx of highly skilled and high remuneration jobs coming to Swansea, 4. People who bought as second homes are starting to turn a lot into B&B and this is not working see this and google, 5. If IR goes up or there is a hint of it going up there will be a sudden influx of these properties onto the market

Based on the above i will wait a bit longer and let reality set in before a start making offers, i have even stopped viewing because it seems to encourage the sellers that they may be priced right...which they definitely are NOT!!

[The Masked Tulip]

I am also of the opinion that very soon in Swansea in particular prices of the type of property i am interested in will start to come down because 1. They can’t be rented out, 2. Transportation is going to impact adversely in the decision making process, 3. I don’t see a sudden influx of highly skilled and high remuneration jobs coming to Swansea, 4. People who bought as second homes are starting to turn a lot into B&B and this is not working see this and google, 5. If IR goes up or there is a hint of it going up there will be a sudden influx of these properties onto the market

Based on the above i will wait a bit longer and let reality set in before a start making offers, i have even stopped viewing because it seems to encourage the sellers that they may be priced right...which they definitely are NOT!!

I agree with all of the above.

I have stopped viewing now as it seems to encourage sellers that their asking price is somehow correct.

[Swansea Estate Agent]

Been away for a much needed holiday.

Any news that is different?

[The Masked Tulip]

Yes, the World's global investment banks and the World's top tech companies have all decided to set up their HQs in Swansea - well, that is the impression I get from the HPs.

[thirdwave]

I am also of the opinion that very soon in Swansea in particular prices of the type of property i am interested in will start to come down because 1. They can’t be rented out, 2. Transportation is going to impact adversely in the decision making process, 3. I don’t see a sudden influx of highly skilled and high remuneration jobs coming to Swansea, 4. People who bought as second homes are starting to turn a lot into B&B and this is not working see this and google, 5. If IR goes up or there is a hint of it going up there will be a sudden influx of these properties onto the market

Based on the above i will wait a bit longer and let reality set in before a start making offers, i have even stopped viewing because it seems to encourage the sellers that they may be priced right...which they definitely are NOT!!

You may find that you have to wait a bit longer than anticipated for asking prices in your price bracket to come down. Sellers as usual clutch on to any bit of 'good news' and the latest word round town is that hoards of monied footballers and WAGs are about to descend on Swansea with SC's promotion to the premiership. I hear the club's manager recently splashed out 1.5 mil on his country pile and this has only served to add to the euphoria among vendors of 500k+ properties.I already know of someone who has put her hideous-but- big house in the middle of nowhere just outside Swansea for 200k more than she paid for it at peak in the hope that some footballer will snap it up..

Too bad many don`t realise Swans have decided not to spend on new players and have even refused to offer 3 year pay deals to current players, as they fully well know they`ll get relegated next season. But until the footballers don`t materialise as expected, turning delusion into naked fear, bigger houses are likely to stay on at comedy prices

Edited July 7, 2011 by thirdwave

[thirdwave]

Been away for a much needed holiday.

Any news that is different?

Hi Mr friendly EA, I have always enjoyed your candid observations on the Swansea market..What is your take on the state of it currently? Are we about to see a 'Lehman moment' for one of the bigger Swansea EAs? What are the chances vendors, most of who are still asking 2007 prices or over, will suddenly discover the land registry and realise to their shock that median sold prices in Swansea have declined 20% from peak?

[Swansea Estate Agent]

Cheers

I would like to get on and network with other EA firms and make the competition more of a friendly battle, but from experience most do not want to know. Or at least did not want to know when times were good for them. We set up to be different and try to do things right by being honest. We still do, but it gets harder with every valuation. If I am the first to value a property, then I never gain the instruction due to what the next agent says. When I am last, then I get to hear what the others have said and its not pretty :angry:

Hard to say about the market currently. We all have opinions and we are probably all wrong.

Personally expect prices in general to dip some more, but not by too much and then remain stagnant for a couple of years. Most of it depends on the whole financial problems worldwide and we could all be on our bottoms for a long time.

I think most valuations I have been doing are 10 - 15% below 2007 depending on improvements, but like you say other EA's are still using those 2007 prices. Most vendors look at properties nearby and gain their beliefs from ramped prices and not forgetting that their property is the best on the street.

[thirdwave]

Cheers

I would like to get on and network with other EA firms and make the competition more of a friendly battle, but from experience most do not want to know. Or at least did not want to know when times were good for them. We set up to be different and try to do things right by being honest. We still do, but it gets harder with every valuation. If I am the first to value a property, then I never gain the instruction due to what the next agent says. When I am last, then I get to hear what the others have said and its not pretty :angry:

Hard to say about the market currently. We all have opinions and we are probably all wrong.

Personally expect prices in general to dip some more, but not by too much and then remain stagnant for a couple of years. Most of it depends on the whole financial problems worldwide and we could all be on our bottoms for a long time.

I think most valuations I have been doing are 10 - 15% below 2007 depending on improvements, but like you say other EA's are still using those 2007 prices. Most vendors look at properties nearby and gain their beliefs from ramped prices and not forgetting that their property is the best on the street.

Isn't that always the case? The homeowner's equivalent of pe*is envy lol

Glad to know that you're trying to induce some sense into the market at the risk of losing business. I recall from your earlier posts that you mainly deal with the lower end of the market but what is your impression of the market for 4+bedders currently? I have been watching the 250k+ segment and practically nothing seems to be selling-hardly 2-3 houses have gone under offer in the last month or so. I can`t see this state of affairs carrying on forever. EAs presumably have to eat as well and it can`t be too long before they start putting pressure on vendors to drop prices?

I am quite happy to pay current market value (20% off 2007 prices based on LR figures for Swansea) and am in a position to proceed immediately but vendors of the sort of houses I am looking at appear to be holding out for 2007 prices or more..its really frustrating :angry:

Edited July 8, 2011 by thirdwave

[The Masked Tulip]

Look at this jst come on for 345K asking wit John Frnacis in Mumbles.

At the height of the bubble I was looking at houses in this road on for about 290K asking, and was being told by a few EAs I knew that those asking prices were too high for houses in that road. Now, look at this just come on for 345K!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30717298.html

Juat checking houseprices.co.uk land reg figures no house in the road has sold over 320K with most appearing nearer 250K IMPO.

[mumblesmental]

i agree - insane price - they have tarted it uo quite well but is a semi in west cross at the end of the day! That said, the 1.5m house i refered to recently is SSTC! Rumour has it the mangager of the swans has bought it.

[Swansea Estate Agent]

Isn't that always the case? The homeowner's equivalent of pe*is envy lol

Glad to know that you're trying to induce some sense into the market at the risk of losing business. I recall from your earlier posts that you mainly deal with the lower end of the market but what is your impression of the market for 4+bedders currently? I have been watching the 250k+ segment and practically nothing seems to be selling-hardly 2-3 houses have gone under offer in the last month or so. I can`t see this state of affairs carrying on forever. EAs presumably have to eat as well and it can`t be too long before they start putting pressure on vendors to drop prices?

I am quite happy to pay current market value (20% off 2007 prices based on LR figures for Swansea) and am in a position to proceed immediately but vendors of the sort of houses I am looking at appear to be holding out for 2007 prices or more..its really frustrating :angry:

One problem is that many people re-mortgaged or bought in 2007, so they can't sell for less.

4 + beds. Are you looking down West?

I could find you a 6 or 7 bed property that is currently used for students for around £170,000 or less and in excellent condition if you want to live in Mount Pleasant or similar.

You can get a nearly new build 4 bed detached in Parc Penllergaer or Tircoed Forest Village for £200k.

If you want to live down West, then you have to pay because prices do not seem to be coming down. I would love to be able to get our company involved in the market down there simply because of commissions, but I can't win any instructions. The reason being other EA's still going OTT on valuations.

[Swansea Estate Agent]

i agree - insane price - they have tarted it uo quite well but is a semi in west cross at the end of the day! That said, the 1.5m house i refered to recently is SSTC! Rumour has it the mangager of the swans has bought it.

No doubt a premiership promotion bonus.

I remember when Roberto was at Swansea. He and all his players were renting property in Penllergaer and some through me. Wages have obviously changed a lot in the last 3 or 4 years.

[thirdwave]

One problem is that many people re-mortgaged or bought in 2007, so they can't sell for less.

4 + beds. Are you looking down West?

I could find you a 6 or 7 bed property that is currently used for students for around £170,000 or less and in excellent condition if you want to live in Mount Pleasant or similar.

You can get a nearly new build 4 bed detached in Parc Penllergaer or Tircoed Forest Village for £200k.

If you want to live down West, then you have to pay because prices do not seem to be coming down. I would love to be able to get our company involved in the market down there simply because of commissions, but I can't win any instructions. The reason being other EA's still going OTT on valuations.

But surely there is little point in gaining ever more instructions if there is little chance of converting them into sales??I see very few sales happening in Swansea West currently..judging from RM and findaproperty..My understanding is that EAs don`t charge any upfront fees so need to secure sales to generate income..I can`t see a big rental market in Swansea either (I know you do a lot of rentals but the bigger EAs appear to focus of sales and a lot of the student accommodation is marketed directly by LLs?) so how are the bigger players making ends meet in this kind of market? I don`t think any amount of pessimism in meeja will change the view of deluded sellers about the 'worth' of their properties and its down to the EAs to bell the cat- I think their eventual survival would depend on getting vendors to agree to more realistic valuations..

[thirdwave]

No doubt a premiership promotion bonus.

I remember when Roberto was at Swansea. He and all his players were renting property in Penllergaer and some through me. Wages have obviously changed a lot in the last 3 or 4 years.

From what I hear Swanz have only agreed a 1 year pay deal so chances are any premiership bonus is likely to be a one off..

Edited July 11, 2011 by thirdwave

[thirdwave]

Interesting anecdote- was at a social in Swansea yesterday. Bumped into this bloke from the Beany brigade with a load of HMOs etc. We got talking about the Swansea market/state of the economy and when I told him my budget and areas I was looking at, his advice was to go for something I`d stay in for at least a few decades as chances were I`ll "struggle to sell it in the future" (his words)..Perhaps the message is finally getting through to the sheeple..

[The Masked Tulip]

But surely there is little point in gaining ever more instructions if there is little chance of converting them into sales??I see very few sales happening in Swansea West currently..judging from RM and findaproperty..My understanding is that EAs don`t charge any upfront fees so need to secure sales to generate income..I can`t see a big rental market in Swansea either (I know you do a lot of rentals but the bigger EAs appear to focus of sales and a lot of the student accommodation is marketed directly by LLs?) so how are the bigger players making ends meet in this kind of market? I don`t think any amount of pessimism in meeja will change the view of deluded sellers about the 'worth' of their properties and its down to the EAs to bell the cat- I think their eventual survival would depend on getting vendors to agree to more realistic valuations..

I know several Swansea EAs who got big into BTL in the bubble years and/or they have remortgaged to provide deposits to their kids to help them buy a house.

In other words, they are desperate to ramp house prices locally.

[The Masked Tulip]

Interesting anecdote- was at a social in Swansea yesterday. Bumped into this bloke from the Beany brigade with a load of HMOs etc. We got talking about the Swansea market/state of the economy and when I told him my budget and areas I was looking at, his advice was to go for something I`d stay in for at least a few decades as chances were I`ll "struggle to sell it in the future" (his words)..Perhaps the message is finally getting through to the sheeple..

Did he say anything else about the local market?

I think he is right re the large houses - I have changed my tune and decided to go for a smaller property partly due to the costs of heating/running a home in the future plus the fact that I think, from a demographics POV, the bigger houses will be harder to shift.

I only wish I had come to this conclusion 12 months ago.

[Swansea Estate Agent]

But surely there is little point in gaining ever more instructions if there is little chance of converting them into sales??I see very few sales happening in Swansea West currently..judging from RM and findaproperty..My understanding is that EAs don`t charge any upfront fees so need to secure sales to generate income..I can`t see a big rental market in Swansea either (I know you do a lot of rentals but the bigger EAs appear to focus of sales and a lot of the student accommodation is marketed directly by LLs?) so how are the bigger players making ends meet in this kind of market? I don`t think any amount of pessimism in meeja will change the view of deluded sellers about the 'worth' of their properties and its down to the EAs to bell the cat- I think their eventual survival would depend on getting vendors to agree to more realistic valuations..

Depends on the property. Big chains now offer lots of extras like video tours, floor plans and the like. The EA sells these for good profit in advance as well as EPC's. They make a few £100 by taking on some properties plus sell them further services like mortgages, insurance etc.

They have no intention of selling at the price they value at. The idea is to pick up the extra's before another EA does, then try to get the vendor to reduce by 15% or so. If they won't reduce, then let them go to another agent in 12 weeks time. Other EA's are not interested in taking them on due to over valuation, no extra's, no chance of a quick sale, but may take it on to increase stock levels.