My View On The World...

[lee_81]

Hi everyone

I have been lurking hpc.com for probably the last 2 years, and I have really enjoyed my time on it.

I thought I would finally introduce myself and tell you my story.

I have a Chartered Surveyor by trade and also a part time landlord of a number of student properties in Manchester. I also started looking for a property to buy (to live in) in London from around mid 2008 and finally found something in April 2010.

Now without question there was quite a vicious fall in prices from the end of 2007 until say March 2009, and I was actually wanting prices to fall further.

Why I hear you ask, surely you have a VI?? My student properties are pure income plays and I have no interest in selling them, I have long term fixed rate mortgages and what these things are actually worth is irrelevant. Conversely, gig falls in prices will mean some potential opportunities to buy some more. In addition, it would mean I could buy something bigger in London.

Well, as we all know, prices bounced rapidly and there were very few 'bargains' to be had. In fact I was amazed how many people actually had no need to sell. You must remember that anyone who bought more than 5 years ago, is probably sitting on fair amount of equity. Through my day job I see huge amounts of people who have lots of cash. With IRs so low there is also no benefit to save or put money in the bank.

So what are my views going forward...?

1. Interest rates are bound to stay low. Unfortunately the 'savers' are in the minority and no-one cares about them.

2. We'll get a good dosage of inflation. Property is often a good hedge against inflation.

3. House prices are not going to crash. Those who are waiting for them to crash should just get over it!!!! Low IRs and a potentially another dose of QE will continue to support the housing market.

4. The longer you wait the harder and harder it is to get on the housing ladder...prices will continue to rise (albeit very slowly say 3-5% p.a. for the next few yrs)

These are my genuine views....I want prices to fall so I can find some decent bargains!!!

There are so many doom-mongerers on this site its unreal and your judgement is just so clouded its amazing.

The crash aint happening!!!!

[lee_81]

Hi everyone

I have been lurking hpc.com for probably the last 2 years, and I have really enjoyed my time on it.

I thought I would finally introduce myself and tell you my story.

I have a Chartered Surveyor by trade and also a part time landlord of a number of student properties in Manchester. I also started looking for a property to buy (to live in) in London from around mid 2008 and finally found something in April 2010.

Now without question there was quite a vicious fall in prices from the end of 2007 until say March 2009, and I was actually wanting prices to fall further.

Why I hear you ask, surely you have a VI?? My student properties are pure income plays and I have no interest in selling them, I have long term fixed rate mortgages and what these things are actually worth is irrelevant. Conversely, gig falls in prices will mean some potential opportunities to buy some more. In addition, it would mean I could buy something bigger in London.

Well, as we all know, prices bounced rapidly and there were very few 'bargains' to be had. In fact I was amazed how many people actually had no need to sell. You must remember that anyone who bought more than 5 years ago, is probably sitting on fair amount of equity. Through my day job I see huge amounts of people who have lots of cash. With IRs so low there is also no benefit to save or put money in the bank.

So what are my views going forward...?

1. Interest rates are bound to stay low. Unfortunately the 'savers' are in the minority and no-one cares about them.

2. We'll get a good dosage of inflation. Property is often a good hedge against inflation.

3. House prices are not going to crash. Those who are waiting for them to crash should just get over it!!!! Low IRs and a potentially another dose of QE will continue to support the housing market.

4. The longer you wait the harder and harder it is to get on the housing ladder...prices will continue to rise (albeit very slowly say 3-5% p.a. for the next few yrs)

These are my genuine views....I want prices to fall so I can find some decent bargains!!!

There are so many doom-mongerers on this site its unreal and your judgement is just so clouded its amazing.

The crash aint happening!!!!

[Bruce Banner]

Another wind-up Estate Agent.

[Frank Hovis]

Since when were new members allowed to start a topic on the main forum with their very first post?

Let's just invite all of singing pig over to start ramping BTLs.

[AvidFan]

Since when were new members allowed to start a topic on the main forum with their very first post?

Let's just invite all of singing pig over to start ramping BTLs.

I know! Just how exclusive is this club? I'm beginning to have my doubts...

[Frank Hovis]

I know! Just how exclusive is this club? I'm beginning to have my doubts...

Well, on another thread Doccyboy clearly stated:

You will be able to post directly on the main board when you have posted over 100 posts.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=148549

I think that needs checking and will report, not for deletion (the poster's entitled to their views) but for checking the board settings.

[Speak&Spell]

I believe there won't be a major crash, but there are falls yet to come. You see one side of the coin, all those people with cash, but what about the other side showing those who don't have cash who require a mortgage? What about average people securing a mortgage? What about when these same people have to renew in 2 years when their fixed rate term is up? Don't you think behind all this there are some seriously major issues that could drive the market down?

I don't know if we will see drops this year or in two years. All I know is prices, especially in the South East are ridiculous.

The crash only stopped in 2009 because money was printed and I think printy printy is failry unlikely to happen again, as the Conservatives issued a budget trying to reduce the deficit, not increase it.

Pleas explain to me why house transactions are at an all time low? Er... it might be because:

a. the banks cant/won't lend at a decent rate.

b. FEAR has set in with first time buyers due to a potential further recession and job losses.

I could name more reasons but they are covered in these pages day in and day out.

It makes me smile that you've been lurking for 2 years yet you didn't post up until now and when you do post it's only to say there is no crash yet you really want one to happen. You're a fool and I can smell your fear.

[maxdiver]

I can't disagree entirely with the OP.

However, there are better ways to invest money than in property.

What about borrowing money on a long-term fixed rate deal (MEW to the hilt) and buy some oil shares.

Yielding over 6% (I haven't checked exactly - but that's realistic)

Don't care about the price - it's a pure income play.

Passive, reliable, liquid.

And a lot less hassle than playing Rigsby.

[deflation]

1. Interest rates are bound to stay low. Unfortunately the 'savers' are in the minority and no-one cares about them.

2. We'll get a good dosage of inflation. Property is often a good hedge against inflation.

3. House prices are not going to crash. Those who are waiting for them to crash should just get over it!!!! Low IRs and a potentially another dose of QE will continue to support the housing market.

4. The longer you wait the harder and harder it is to get on the housing ladder...prices will continue to rise (albeit very slowly say 3-5% p.a. for the next few yrs)

1. Around 7m families have savings of £10,000 or more according to the ONS. ( http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/4127206/Never-mind-the-borrowers-savers-are-the-solvent-majority.html )

Total households with mortgages,11.7m (May 2009 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7711689.stm )

A minority I grant you but not by much.

I'm sure there will be more along to ask you about failing to allow for rising unemployment, lack of lending funds after withdrawal of SLS in 2011, etc.

Edited August 5, 2010 by deflation

[Alan B'Stard MP]

You're a fool and I can smell your fear.

29 Years old and from Manchester.

Says it all.

What exactly is a part-time landlord?

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

Blah blah blah

1. Interest rates are bound to stay low. Unfortunately the 'savers' are in the minority and no-one cares about them.

2. We'll get a good dosage of inflation. Property is often a good hedge against inflation.

3. House prices are not going to crash. Those who are waiting for them to crash should just get over it!!!! Low IRs and a potentially another dose of QE will continue to support the housing market.

4. The longer you wait the harder and harder it is to get on the housing ladder...prices will continue to rise (albeit very slowly say 3-5% p.a. for the next few yrs)

Usual bull stuff - no facts or figures to back it up, no real reasoning and an excess of exclamation marks:

For what it is worth:

1 and 2 contradict each other - low interest rates and inflation together? Not much sense here.

3. House prices are already down 20% from peak and have essentially moved sideways.

4. The harder it is for FTBs to get on the ladder, the harder it is to complete a chain. This is not bullish.

Yawn Yawn Yawn

Why the mods let this guy start a topic when he has justed signed up is beyond me. Perhaps they could explain

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

29 Years old and from Manchester.

Says it all.

What exactly is a part-time landlord?

LondonToManchester returns?

[miko]

Hi everyone

I have been lurking hpc.com for probably the last 2 years, and I have really enjoyed my time on it.

I thought I would finally introduce myself and tell you my story.

I have a Chartered Surveyor by trade and also a part time landlord of a number of student properties in Manchester. I also started looking for a property to buy (to live in) in London from around mid 2008 and finally found something in April 2010.

Now without question there was quite a vicious fall in prices from the end of 2007 until say March 2009, and I was actually wanting prices to fall further.

Why I hear you ask, surely you have a VI?? My student properties are pure income plays and I have no interest in selling them, I have long term fixed rate mortgages and what these things are actually worth is irrelevant. Conversely, gig falls in prices will mean some potential opportunities to buy some more. In addition, it would mean I could buy something bigger in London.

Well, as we all know, prices bounced rapidly and there were very few 'bargains' to be had. In fact I was amazed how many people actually had no need to sell. You must remember that anyone who bought more than 5 years ago, is probably sitting on fair amount of equity. Through my day job I see huge amounts of people who have lots of cash. With IRs so low there is also no benefit to save or put money in the bank.

So what are my views going forward...?

1. Interest rates are bound to stay low. Unfortunately the 'savers' are in the minority and no-one cares about them.

2. We'll get a good dosage of inflation. Property is often a good hedge against inflation.

3. House prices are not going to crash. Those who are waiting for them to crash should just get over it!!!! Low IRs and a potentially another dose of QE will continue to support the housing market.

4. The longer you wait the harder and harder it is to get on the housing ladder...prices will continue to rise (albeit very slowly say 3-5% p.a. for the next few yrs)

These are my genuine views....I want prices to fall so I can find some decent bargains!!!

There are so many doom-mongerers on this site its unreal and your judgement is just so clouded its amazing.

The crash aint happening!!!!

In your day job you see huge amouths of people with huge amounts of cash. But there are also huge amounts of people with huge amounts of debt that they cannot pay , that balances that one out. Or more immportantly it will be those that cannot pay their debts that will pull the market down the forced sellers.

Yes pity but no one does care about the savers , their not in the minority there are more savers than borrowers.

A good dose of inflation is on its way , property will only be a good hedge against inflation if there are wage rises to match the inflation , but that is not happening inflation is heading north while wages head south, not a good bet for property as peoples ability to pay their debts is reduced.

Whether people can afford property or not , another massive factor in the property market is sentiment. People think property will go up they will buy if they think it will fall they won't.

The greed will make them buy fear will make them not buy or sell, and fear is a bigger motivator than greed.

Not sure whether your a wind up or not don't really care , I would call what you describe as doom mongers on this site as realistic people .

[Lepista]

I honestly think this is the view of most people out in the "real world".

Not that it's right, mind you.

They are going to be in for a hell of a shock when phase 2 of the great depression kicks in.

Remember, we're only at the end of the beginning, nowhere near the beginning of the end.

I feel for(*) the majority of people who aren't looking / cannot see this financial juggernaught that's almost upon us.

(*) They've had plenty of warning now, if anyone still doesn't get it, then I have very little sympathy for them. Good luck, OP, you're going to need it.

[The Moderators]

Well, on another thread Doccyboy clearly stated:

You will be able to post directly on the main board when you have posted over 100 posts.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=148549

I think that needs checking and will report, not for deletion (the poster's entitled to their views) but for checking the board settings.

The board setting are fine. When a new member posts a new topic on the main forum it needs to be approved by a moderator. This one was funny.

[worzel]

Since when were new members allowed to start a topic on the main forum with their very first post?

Let's just invite all of singing pig over to start ramping BTLs.

I dunno, but the ipod file conversion people seem to be able to do it on a daily basis.

What I want to know is where does this person keep their chartered surveyor, seems an unusual choice for a pet.

[Alan B'Stard MP]

I dunno, but the ipod file conversion people seem to be able to do it on a daily basis.

What I want to know is where does this person keep their chartered surveyor, seems an unusual choice for a pet.

It's not a pet - it's a venereal disease.

[57percent]

.. it's actually a good post.

I don't agree, but it's a position with an explanation.

We can't all take one point of view - it's not healthy.

[Reck B]

Hi everyone

I have been lurking hpc.com for probably the last 2 years, and I have really enjoyed my time on it.

I thought I would finally introduce myself and tell you my story.

I have a Chartered Surveyor by trade and also a part time landlord of a number of student properties in Manchester. I also started looking for a property to buy (to live in) in London from around mid 2008 and finally found something in April 2010.

Now without question there was quite a vicious fall in prices from the end of 2007 until say March 2009, and I was actually wanting prices to fall further.

Why I hear you ask, surely you have a VI?? My student properties are pure income plays and I have no interest in selling them, I have long term fixed rate mortgages and what these things are actually worth is irrelevant. Conversely, gig falls in prices will mean some potential opportunities to buy some more. In addition, it would mean I could buy something bigger in London.

Well, as we all know, prices bounced rapidly and there were very few 'bargains' to be had. In fact I was amazed how many people actually had no need to sell. You must remember that anyone who bought more than 5 years ago, is probably sitting on fair amount of equity. Through my day job I see huge amounts of people who have lots of cash. With IRs so low there is also no benefit to save or put money in the bank.

So what are my views going forward...?

1. Interest rates are bound to stay low. Unfortunately the 'savers' are in the minority and no-one cares about them.

2. We'll get a good dosage of inflation. Property is often a good hedge against inflation.

3. House prices are not going to crash. Those who are waiting for them to crash should just get over it!!!! Low IRs and a potentially another dose of QE will continue to support the housing market.

4. The longer you wait the harder and harder it is to get on the housing ladder...prices will continue to rise (albeit very slowly say 3-5% p.a. for the next few yrs)

These are my genuine views....I want prices to fall so I can find some decent bargains!!!

There are so many doom-mongerers on this site its unreal and your judgement is just so clouded its amazing.

The crash aint happening!!!!

Go back to lurking, you were far more interesting then.

[Alan B'Stard MP]

Anyone who puts their age in their username is obviously a bit of a thicko - or only intends to post for a short while. The latter also suggests the former.

[lee_81]

.. it's actually a good post.

I don't agree, but it's a position with an explanation.

We can't all take one point of view - it's not healthy.

Thank you!

A 'part-time' landlord is someone with a few BTLs in the background which generally run themselves. They yield between 10-14%.

I'm not an estate agent either, i'm a valuer. I value for bank and various other lending institutions on large commercial properties, large single residential houses (£10m+), development sites, companies which are the subject of takeovers etc etc

[Confounded]

The crash aint happening!!!!

So many people have bought in at bubble prices many will be pleased to read your reassurance. History tells us differently but no one has the power to see the future so you may be right. I am backing history and have little to loose waiting a few more years.

As taught very early on in school maths the area under the graph is very important!

Income to house price ratio

[Dorkins]

Exercise for the OP: If you bought your BTL empire with interest only mortgages, how confident are you house prices will be higher on the day you have to cough up the principal than they were when you bought? House prices in Japan are still below their 1989 peak 21 years later. Japan has had QE and zero interest rates for decades. You have placed a one-way six figure bet on inflation. Good luck with that.

[lee_81]

Anyone who puts their age in their username is obviously a bit of a thicko - or only intends to post for a short while. The latter also suggests the former.

Whats the difference if you know my age???! How does that effect anything??!

[Alan B'Stard MP]

You have placed a one-way six figure bet on inflation.

This is Manchester we are talking about. You need to specify where the decimal point sits.