Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Gold strategy in the current economy


Recommended Posts

0
HOLA441

demand it'll have to be ramped up. :)

Generally, the supply of gold is considered to be essentially mine production and scrap sales. This is offset by fabrication demand, which has exceeded the supply of gold for thirteen out of the last fifteen years. Fabrication demand can be broken into two main components: jewelry fabrication and industrial fabrication. Other forms of gold supply include private and official gold sales from stockpiles, forward sales by producers and hedging by speculators. Additional demand for gold such as private and official purchases and demand for gold loans also enter into the supply-demand equation.

But by far the most important factors influencing the gold price would be the most inelastic forms of supply and demand, viz. mine supply and fabrication demand. Mine supply is by nature inelastic due to the cost and time that it takes to develop new deposits and bring new mines into production. Once in production, mines cannot easily change the amount of gold they produce, nor can they shut down for a few months because the price of gold drops. In essence mine supply is a function of the number of mines in production and it rises as new deposits are discovered and brought to account. Due to the increasing use of gold in fabrication, scrap sales of gold have also increased. This form of supply is now fairly large relative to mine supply and will continue to play an important role in the supply-demand dynamics of the metal.

Similarly, fabrication demand is the most inelastic form of demand. Among the two components of fabrication demand, jewelry fabrication is both the largest component and the least inelastic. But it is widely spread among nations so that when demand increases in one country it is often offset against demand declines in another country and vise versa. Industrial fabrication, which is made up of electrical and other forms of fabrication, is inelastic since gold components are usually a very small portion of the final product and thus changes in the cost of these components have a relatively small effect on the cost of the final product. Also, gold has very unique chemical and physical properties, which limits the ability of manufacturers to substitute other metals when the price increases.

When the price of gold is reasonable, fabrication demand is fairly inelastic. It increases as the world’s economies grow. During times of reasonable gold prices, fabrication is by far the most important form of demand and outweighs investment demand as an influence on the gold price.

Demand analysis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1
HOLA442

Sooooo erm, the previous thing you linked is wrong then?

:D

oh edit - you are being ingeniously disengneous again. That's an article about new supply versus usage demand. Naughty, naughty, naughty. How many jewelers have we got on this thread? Errol is a PC manufacturer is he? :lol:

edit again - it gets evern better! "we can conclude that the supply and demand fundamentals as represented above do not determine the gold price" :D:D

Edited by Injin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2
HOLA443

oh edit - you are being ingeniously disengneous again.

Perhaps, perhaps not. You'll have to work harder here. Van Eeden is a self-declared goldbug with a valuation model. For your homework you can analyse the validity of his model and the probability of his surprising predictions becoming true to the consternation of mainstream goldbugs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3
HOLA444

Perhaps, perhaps not. You'll have to work harder here. Van Eeden is a self-declared goldbug with a valuation model. For your homework you can analyse the validity of his model and the probability of his surprising predictions becoming true to the consternation of mainstream goldbugs.

He also says the price has feck all to do with natural demand.

So he agrees with me - it's a bubble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4
HOLA445
5
HOLA446
6
HOLA447

He also says the price has feck all to do with natural demand.

So he agrees with me - it's a bubble.

His terminology is:

the type of hysteria that the gold price is exhibiting

so essentially yes, though he does not use the b-word.

The question is:

can he prove his case?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7
HOLA448
8
HOLA449

I don't care how I come accross and I am a professional psychologist.

:)

i am interested that you chose to freely divulge this information on this thread

would you care to divulge through which particular specialism you gain employment?

i.e.

Clinical psychology

Counselling psychology

Educational psychology

Forensic psychology

Health psychology

Neuropsychology

Occupational psychology

Sport and exercise psychology

Teachers and Researchers in Psychology

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9
HOLA4410

i am interested that you chose to freely divulge this information on this thread

I was amused at your attempted dismissal. It's also not exactly a secret, there is a radio show out there somewhere with me on it from waaay back that a few on here know about.

would you care to divulge through which particular specialism you gain employment?

i.e.

Clinical psychology

Counselling psychology

Educational psychology

Forensic psychology

Health psychology

Neuropsychology

Occupational psychology

Sport and exercise psychology

Teachers and Researchers in Psychology

Hypnotist.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10
HOLA4411

Given i proved the exact same case on here just using logic, it's not exactly a high barrier to climb over.

"Proof" is such an interesting word with rich psychological connotations.

Leaving all that aside and moving on from binary logic, Van Eeden uses a scientific model to make predictions about the future and these will be validated or falsified when his future becomes our present.

Also leaving aside what he means by "value", we can monitor the truth value of his recent assertion moving forward in time.

PvE: No. The value of gold is about $900/oz.

Does your insight from logical deduction applied to dialogue "on here" enable you to make quantitative predictions for the near or medium-term future for any aspect of the Au element? If so, what number for what aspect in which timescale would you be happy to share?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11
HOLA4412

"Proof" is such an interesting word with rich psychological connotations.

I'm glad you agree I proved it.

Leaving all that aside and moving on from binary logic, Van Eeden uses a scientific model to make predictions about the future and these will be validated or falsified when his future becomes our present.

Not interested in that.

Also leaving aside what he means by "value", we can monitor the truth value of his recent assertion moving forward in time.

Accuracy of prediction is very useful. However, doesn't change the past. i.e. gold could stop being a bubble tomorrow morning (perhaps a meteor drops some sort of self esteem partciel over the population and they start to measure against their own preferences instead of against silly myths or something) but it would still always have been one up until that point.

Does your insight from logical deduction applied to dialogue "on here" enable you to make quantitative predictions for the near or medium-term future for any aspect of the Au element? If so, what number for what aspect in which timescale would you be happy to share?

Your values aren't binding on anyone else. No one elses are binding upon you, either.

Think about it a bit.

And no, finding a numerical market value in the future is very simple for oneself, more difficult but still sortof possible for those you know very well and completely impossible for strangers. What canh be determined is the amount of those strangers who are operating from their own intent. After that, not possible. i.e. gold is a bubble, who knows what the manic will get up to?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12
HOLA4413
13
HOLA4414

Is there a word in your profession for people who always have to have the last word?

Congrats for creating the most tedious thread in HPC history

I've often wondered why he even bothers posting on this thread, tbh.

Edited by Errol
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14
HOLA4415

I've often wondered why he even bothers posting on this thread, tbh.

I rather like thinking and debating.

Obviously that's not as easy as not thinking, believing in nonsense and posting pictures of rockets, but here we are.

Edited by Injin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15
HOLA4416
16
HOLA4417
17
HOLA4418
18
HOLA4419

Injin just a general question

Why do you continue to post on here? Everyone thinks your theories are unrealistic and backed up by little more than wishful thinking and a unique perspective

Even if you were right and gold is a pile of shite, if 99.9% of the world population tend to disagree it makes being right completely pointless

I only ask because I can't fathom why you bother, you are eloquent and if I were you I would do something more constructive with my time

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19
HOLA4420

Injin just a general question

Why do you continue to post on here? Everyone thinks your theories are unrealistic and backed up by little more than wishful thinking and a unique perspective

What theories?

All I've done here is use rationality to debunk the general goldbug position and add some facts to that.

Even if you were right and gold is a pile of shite, if 99.9% of the world population tend to disagree it makes being right completely pointless

At no point have I said gold is shite. I've even said gold will work as an investment strategy. Why don't you read what I actually write instead of seeing i'm not posting pictures of rockets and then automatically going off on one like a sulky teenager?

I only ask because I can't fathom why you bother, you are eloquent and if I were you I would do something more constructive with my time

Because it's fun. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20
HOLA4421
21
HOLA4422
22
HOLA4423

What theories?

All I've done here is use rationality to debunk the general goldbug position and add some facts to that.

At no point have I said gold is shite. I've even said gold will work as an investment strategy. Why don't you read what I actually write instead of seeing i'm not posting pictures of rockets and then automatically going off on one like a sulky teenager?

Because it's fun. :)

The point is that most of your posts would be better off in their own thread - why not start a 'Debate with Injin about Gold' thread or something. It's just pointless posting here and I would have thought that your time was more valuable than that.

But by all means carry on if you like.

Edited by Errol
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23
HOLA4424

The point is that most of your posts would be better off in their own thread - why not start a 'Debate with Injin about Gold' thread or something. It's just pointless posting here and I would have thought that your time was more valuable than that.

But by all means carry on if you like.

Why is seeking the nature of the demand for gold not relevent in a gold investment strategy thread?

You make zero sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24
HOLA4425

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information